Chesterfield vs Swindon Predictions for this League Two fixture. England’s 2024-25 League Two season begins on Friday with National League champions Chesterfield hosting Swindon Town at SMH Group Stadium. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
League One | Aug 9, 2024 at 8pm UK at Technique Stadium
Chesterfield vs Swindon Predictions
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Can Chesterfield Continue Their Dominance in League Two Opener Against Swindon Town?
Key Stats
Chesterfield scored 106 goals in their National League campaign last season.
Swindon Town have won only two of their last 22 away games in League Two.
Will Grigg, Chesterfield’s top scorer, netted 25 goals last season.
Chesterfield are set to make their return to the football league as they host Swindon Town at the SMH Group Stadium, marking the beginning of the 2024-25 League Two season. Chesterfield, fresh off a dominant National League campaign, face a Swindon side that struggled last season. This analysis delves into the key elements of both teams, their strategies, potential gameplay, and provides predictions for this intriguing fixture.
Chesterfield’s Triumph and Transition
After securing the National League title with an impressive 98 points, Chesterfield are looking to carry their winning momentum into League Two. Their attacking prowess was undeniable last season, scoring 106 goals, the highest in the division. However, their defence, which conceded 65 goals, was less formidable, ranking 13th in the National League. This contrast between offensive firepower and defensive vulnerability is a critical area that manager Paul Cook will need to address.
Paul Cook, who has been at the helm since February 2022, previously led Chesterfield to the League Two title and a League One play-off position. His experience and familiarity with the club’s ethos could be pivotal as they navigate their way back into the football league. The team’s pre-season form was mixed, with three wins from seven friendlies, but a 3-0 victory against Scunthorpe United provided a morale boost ahead of the new season.
Swindon Town’s Struggles and Rebuilding
In stark contrast, Swindon Town are coming off a disappointing 19th place finish in League Two last season. Despite being clear of relegation, their downward trajectory in recent years is concerning. Since their relegation from League One in the 2020-21 season, their positions have steadily declined, ending last season with just 54 points.
Manager Mark Kennedy, appointed in May, faces the daunting task of turning the club’s fortunes around. Despite bringing in 11 new players, Kennedy has openly admitted that the squad is not yet ready for the upcoming season. This admission, coupled with their poor away record – just two wins in their last 22 away games in League Two – does not bode well for their clash against Chesterfield.
Tactical Approaches and Expected Lineups
Chesterfield’s Possible Starting XI:
- Goalkeeper: Boot
- Defenders: Mandeville, Grimes, Dunkley, Gordon
- Midfielders: Banks, Oldaker, Colclough, Jacobs, Dobra
- Forward: Grigg
Chesterfield’s tactical setup under Cook is likely to focus on attacking fluidity, leveraging the creative talents of players like Dobra and Colclough. The defensive pairing of Grimes and new signing Dunkley will need to be solid to mitigate their previous season’s defensive issues.
Swindon Town’s Possible Starting XI:
- Goalkeeper: Bycroft
- Defenders: Minturn, Freckleton, Wright
- Midfielders: King, Clarke, Longelo, Glatzel, Delaney
- Forwards: Smith, Drinan
Swindon’s formation under Kennedy is expected to be more conservative, focusing on solidifying their defence and utilising wing-backs for width. New signing Jeff King, who returns to face his former club, will be eager to make an impact from the wing-back position.
Key Areas and Player Battles
The midfield battle will be a decisive area in this match. Chesterfield’s Ollie Banks, known for his passing range and vision, will clash with Swindon’s Paul Glatzel, whose box-to-box capabilities and defensive work rate could disrupt Chesterfield’s rhythm. This duel is likely to influence which team controls the game’s tempo.
In the defensive line, Chesterfield’s Chey Dunkley will need to be at his best to contain Swindon’s Harry Smith. Dunkley’s aerial dominance and physical presence will be crucial in neutralising Smith, who is known for his prowess in the air and ability to hold up play.
Gameplay Predictions
Chesterfield are expected to dominate possession, using their midfield to create numerous scoring opportunities. Cook’s side will likely press high and exploit the flanks, with their full-backs overlapping to provide width and deliver crosses into the box. Swindon, meanwhile, are expected to adopt a more defensive approach, looking to counter-attack and exploit any spaces left by Chesterfield’s advancing players.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Chesterfield
Strengths:
- Attacking Depth: Chesterfield’s forward line, led by Will Grigg, is potent and capable of breaking down most defences.
- Home Advantage: Their formidable home record from last season gives them a psychological edge.
Weaknesses:
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Despite their attacking prowess, their defence conceded 65 goals last season, an area needing improvement.
- Inconsistency in Friendlies: Mixed pre-season results indicate potential issues in consistency.
Swindon Town
Strengths:
- New Signings: Fresh faces like Jeff King can bring new energy and creativity to the squad.
- Pre-season Form: Winning five out of six pre-season friendlies provides a confidence boost.
Weaknesses:
- Poor Away Record: Their dismal away form from last season remains a significant concern.
- Squad Readiness: Manager Kennedy’s admission about the squad’s unpreparedness is worrying.
Managerial Critique
Paul Cook’s experience and previous success with Chesterfield are undeniable. However, his inability to shore up the defence remains a critical flaw. Chesterfield’s concession rate last season was far from ideal, and Cook’s failure to address this could prove detrimental in League Two, where the competition is stiffer.
Mark Kennedy’s start at Swindon has been less than promising. Despite a flurry of new signings, his admission that the squad is not ready for the season speaks volumes about his managerial acumen. This level of unpreparedness is alarming and places significant pressure on him to turn things around quickly.
Expected Goals Analysis
Chesterfield’s goal-scoring rate of 2.3 goals per game last season underscores their attacking capabilities. However, their goals conceded per game at 1.4 highlights their defensive lapses. Swindon, with an average of 1.7 goals per game but conceding 1.8, indicate a balance of attacking intent and defensive frailty. This data suggests a game that could see multiple goals, with both teams likely to find the net.
Betting Angles and Trends
Given Chesterfield’s last season form and Swindon’s ongoing struggles, several betting angles present themselves. Chesterfield’s tendency to score first, having done so in eight of their last ten home games, suggests a strong start. Additionally, the likelihood of both teams scoring remains high, given their respective defensive records.
Predictions
Best Bet: Chesterfield to Win Chesterfield’s superior home form and attacking strength make them favourites to secure a win. Swindon’s poor away record and admitted lack of readiness further bolster this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Chesterfield 3-1 Swindon Town Given Chesterfield’s offensive capabilities and Swindon’s defensive vulnerabilities, a 3-1 scoreline is plausible. This prediction aligns with Chesterfield’s scoring trends and Swindon’s tendency to concede.
Goalscorer Prediction: Will Grigg to Score Anytime Will Grigg, Chesterfield’s top scorer last season, is expected to continue his goal-scoring form. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a strong candidate to score.
First Half Result Prediction: Chesterfield Leading at Half Time Chesterfield’s tendency to start strong, coupled with Swindon’s poor away performance, suggests that Chesterfield will likely lead at the break.
Innovative Market: Player Total Shots on Target – Armando Dobra Over 1.5 Armando Dobra’s role in Chesterfield’s attacking setup sees him frequently involved in goal-scoring opportunities. Expect him to register more than 1.5 shots on target during the match.
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