Celta Vigo vs Alaves Predictions

Celta Vigo vs Alaves predictions for this affair in La Liga. Celta Vigo aim to start their 2024-25 La Liga campaign strongly as they host Alavés at Estadio Municipal de Balaídos on Friday night. Read on for our free predictions and tips.

La Liga | Aug 16, 2024 at 6pm UK at Estadio de Balaidos

Celta Vigo vs Alaves Predictions

Will Celta Vigo’s New Signings Make the Difference Against a Resilient Alaves?

As Celta Vigo prepare to kick off their 2024-25 La Liga campaign at home against Alaves, both teams find themselves with differing expectations for the new season. Celta, who finished 13th last term, are looking to start strongly in front of their home crowd at Estadio Municipal de Balaidos. Meanwhile, Alaves, coming off an impressive 10th-place finish in their return to the top flight, will be eager to prove that last season’s success was no fluke. This opening fixture promises to be an intriguing contest between two sides with contrasting styles and ambitions.

Team Analysis: Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo head into this match following a productive pre-season, where they managed to secure four wins from seven games, including a draw against Premier League side West Ham United. Despite losing on penalties in that match, Celta’s performances in pre-season suggest a team ready to compete. Claudio Giraldez’s squad has seen some key additions, with Unai Nunez’s permanent move being the most significant, along with loan signings Borja Iglesias and Ilaix Moriba. These new arrivals are expected to bolster a side that struggled with consistency last season.

The Sky Blues finished the previous La Liga campaign with 41 points, a tally that placed them in 13th position. Their season was marred by an inability to convert draws into wins and by a defence that conceded too many goals (57). Giraldez will hope that the defensive reinforcements, particularly Nunez, can shore up a backline that was often found wanting. The midfield, likely anchored by Fran Beltran and Moriba, will be key in controlling the pace of the game, while veteran forward Iago Aspas remains the talisman in attack.

Celta’s offensive output last season, with an average of 1.2 goals per game, was largely dependent on Aspas, who contributed nine goals and ten assists. The arrival of Borja Iglesias could help ease the burden on Aspas, providing Celta with a more varied attacking threat. However, their success this season will depend on whether they can turn possession into more clear-cut chances, particularly against well-organised defences like that of Alaves.

Team Analysis: Alaves

Alaves come into this game after a successful 2023-24 season where they exceeded expectations by finishing 10th in La Liga. Their rise from the Segunda Division to a comfortable mid-table finish in their first season back in the top flight was impressive. However, with a number of changes to the squad over the summer, including eight new signings, the big question is whether Luis Garcia Plaza can maintain that momentum.

Pre-season has been mixed for Alaves, with four wins, two draws, and two losses. Notably, they secured a 2-1 victory over Osasuna in their final friendly, indicating that the team might be hitting form at just the right time. Alaves’ strength lies in their defensive organisation and ability to hit teams on the counter-attack. They conceded 46 goals last season, a respectable figure given their position, and their clean sheet record (11) was one of the better in the lower half of the table.

In attack, Alaves are likely to rely on new signings Asier Villalibre and Stoichkov, who will need to quickly form a partnership if Alaves are to maintain their goal-scoring output. With an average of 0.9 goals per game last season, Alaves were not prolific, but they were efficient, often making the most of their limited chances. Their midfield, led by Ander Guevara and Jon Guridi, will be crucial in breaking up Celta’s play and launching quick transitions.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The expected goals (xG) metrics for both teams indicate that this could be a closely fought contest. Celta Vigo averaged 12.4 shots per game last season, with 4.2 on target, translating to an xG of around 1.2 per game. This suggests that while they create opportunities, their conversion rate could be improved, something that the addition of Borja Iglesias might help with. On the other hand, Alaves averaged 12.2 shots per game, with 3.9 on target, and an xG of 0.9. Their challenge will be to increase this tally, particularly in away games where they struggled to score last season.

Celta’s defensive xG, which saw them concede 1.5 goals per game, highlights their vulnerability at the back. Alaves, with an xG conceded of 1.2, were slightly more resilient, but both teams will need to tighten up defensively if they are to achieve their objectives this season. The outcome of this match could hinge on which team can better convert their chances while keeping things tight at the back.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The battle in midfield will be crucial in determining the outcome of this game. Celta’s Fran Beltran and Ilaix Moriba are likely to face off against Alaves’ Ander Guevara and Jon Guridi. Beltran’s ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball will be key for Celta, while Moriba’s box-to-box energy will be vital in both attacking and defensive transitions. For Alaves, Guevara’s role as the midfield anchor will be to break up play and protect the back four, while Guridi’s forward runs could pose a threat to Celta’s defence.

Another key area will be the flanks. Celta’s Oscar Mingueza and Jonathan Bamba will look to exploit the spaces behind Alaves’ full-backs, particularly with their dribbling ability and pace. Alaves, however, will counter with their wide players, likely Stoichkov and Joaquin Panichelli, who will aim to stretch Celta’s defence and create opportunities for their forwards.

Gameplay Prediction

Based on the tactical setup of both teams, this match is likely to be a tight, tactical affair. Celta, playing at home, will look to dominate possession and control the tempo of the game, using their midfield to build attacks methodically. However, they will need to be wary of Alaves’ counter-attacking threat, which could exploit any gaps left by Celta’s advancing full-backs.

Alaves are expected to play a more defensive game, absorbing pressure and looking to hit Celta on the break. Their ability to defend as a unit and remain compact will be tested, particularly by the movement of Celta’s forward line. The match could come down to set-pieces or a moment of individual brilliance, making it a fascinating tactical battle.

Suggestions for Improvement

Celta Vigo must address their defensive frailties if they are to improve on last season’s finish. Their tendency to concede soft goals, particularly from set-pieces, must be rectified. Giraldez could consider adopting a more disciplined defensive structure, perhaps by instructing his full-backs to be more conservative in their forward runs. Additionally, integrating Borja Iglesias into the attack effectively will be crucial in diversifying their goal-scoring options beyond Aspas.

For Alaves, their primary area of concern is their attack. With an average of less than a goal per game last season, they must find ways to be more clinical in front of goal. Garcia Plaza might consider giving more freedom to his attacking midfielders to support the forwards, or even experimenting with a more aggressive formation that allows for an additional striker. Improving their away form, where they struggled last season, will also be vital if they are to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle.

Criticism: Alaves’ Lack of Ambition

While Alaves deserve credit for their solid defensive performances last season, their lack of ambition in attack is a significant weakness. Luis Garcia Plaza’s conservative approach, which prioritises defensive solidity over offensive creativity, often leaves his team toothless going forward. This approach might have worked in securing a mid-table finish last season, but it is unlikely to be sustainable if Alaves wish to progress further in La Liga. Plaza must find a way to instil a more positive mindset in his team, encouraging them to take the initiative, particularly against teams of similar calibre.

Predictions

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score

Considering both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and the attacking talents on display, the best bet for this match is that both teams will score. Celta Vigo’s defensive record from last season, coupled with Alaves’ ability to score in key moments, makes this a likely outcome. Celta’s tendency to concede, especially when pushing forward, and Alaves’ counter-attacking potential suggest that both teams will find the net in what could be an open game.

Correct Score Prediction: Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves

Given the analysis of both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, a 2-1 victory for Celta Vigo seems a plausible outcome. Celta’s home advantage, coupled with their attacking options, gives them the edge, but Alaves are more than capable of grabbing a goal, likely on the counter. The scoreline reflects Celta’s slight superiority but also acknowledges Alaves’ ability to compete.

Goalscorer Prediction: Borja Iglesias to Score Anytime

Borja Iglesias, one of Celta Vigo’s key signings, is primed to make an impact in this game. His presence in the box and finishing ability make him a strong candidate to score, particularly with the creative support of Aspas and Bamba. With Alaves likely to sit deep, Iglesias will be crucial in converting any chances that come his way, making him a strong pick to find the net.

Corner Prediction: Over 9.5 Corners

Both teams averaged close to five corners per game last season, and with Celta likely to dominate possession and Alaves relying on counter-attacks, a high number of corners can be expected. The prediction is that there will be over 9.5 corners in the match, with Celta potentially winning the majority as they press for goals. Alaves, however, will contribute their share, particularly from their swift transitions down the flanks.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 4.5

Given the physical nature of both teams and the likelihood of a closely contested match, the prediction for over 4.5 total cards seems well-grounded. Celta’s combative midfield and Alaves’ defensive resilience suggest a game that could see plenty of fouls and, consequently, cards. The intensity of the battle in the middle of the park and the potential for frustration if the game remains tight could lead to a flurry of bookings.

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