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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid predictions for this La Liga fixture. Alaves, near La Liga’s relegation zone but resilient at home, host Atletico Madrid at Estadio de Mendizorroza, contrasting their survival struggle with Atletico’s stronger league position. Read on for all our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
La Liga | Gameweek 32 – Apr 21, 2024 at 5.30pm UK at Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Predictions
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Strategic Encounter: Atletico’s Pursuit of Redemption at Alaves’ Fortress
Key Stats
– Álvaro Morata has been involved in 20 goals this season, leading Atletico Madrid’s scoring charts.
– Alaves have shown resilience at home, securing points in crucial matches against top-tier teams.
– Atletico Madrid’s poor away form sees them winless in eight of their last ten away league games.
As Alaves prepare to host Atletico Madrid at Estadio de Mendizorroza, both teams present contrasting fortunes in La Liga. Alaves, struggling near the relegation zone, display a mixed bag of results, notably securing points in crucial home games, including a resilient showing against Real Madrid. Despite recent stumbles, their home form provides a glimmer of hope. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, despite a commendable rank of fourth in La Liga, have displayed significant vulnerabilities away from home, exacerbating the pressure on manager Diego Simeone following their recent Champions League disappointment.
Atletico’s away form has been particularly concerning, with failures to secure wins in crucial matches. This trend suggests a deeper tactical malaise, particularly in transitioning from domestic to international contests, which Simeone has struggled to address this season. Meanwhile, Alaves, under Luis Garcia, have shown a propensity to raise their game against stronger opposition, making this matchup an intriguing tactical battle.
Key Players and Expected Lineups
Alaves are expected to rely heavily on their top performers like Luis Rioja and Kike García, who have been pivotal in their attack, while Antonio Sivera’s role as goalkeeper remains crucial given their defensive vulnerabilities. For Atletico Madrid, the onus will be on star forward Álvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann to penetrate Alaves’ defence. Morata, in particular, has been in fine form, leading the scoring charts for his team.
Expected Lineups:
- Alaves: Antonio Sivera; Rubén Duarte, Ximo Navarro, Victor Laguardia, Martín Aguirregabiria; Pere Pons, Tomás Pina; Luis Rioja, Lucas Pérez, Edgar Méndez; Joselu.
- Atletico Madrid: Jan Oblak; Kieran Trippier, Felipe, Mario Hermoso, Renan Lodi; Koke, Saúl Ñíguez, Marcos Llorente; João Félix, Luis Suárez, Ángel Correa.
This lineup for Alaves, while solid, highlights their defensive gaps, particularly in the central defensive area, where speed and tactical discipline will be tested by Atletico’s dynamic attack. Atletico’s formation, with a blend of experienced and attacking talents, suggests a strategy focused on maintaining possession and exploiting the flanks, areas where Alaves have shown vulnerability.
Tactical Focus and Key Battles
The match could likely be decided in the midfield, where control and quick transitions will play pivotal roles. Atletico’s midfield trio, featuring the creativity and defensive diligence of Koke and Saúl, will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, attempting to offset their poor away form with a controlled approach. For Alaves, the challenge will be to disrupt this rhythm, with Rioja and García key in launching counter-attacks.
Key battles will include Rioja’s pace against Trippier’s defensive acumen, and the physical presence of Joselu against Felipe in aerial duels. These individual matchups will be crucial in swinging the game’s momentum.
Analysis of Gameplay Dynamics
Given the contrasting styles, Atletico will likely dominate possession, looking to exploit Alaves’ defensive frailties through set-pieces and crosses into the box. Alaves, conversely, might adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on maintaining defensive solidity and hitting on the break, where Atletico’s recent vulnerabilities could be exposed.
Predictions and Rationale
Best Bet: Atletico Madrid to Win
Considering both teams’ form and tactical setups, Atletico Madrid, despite their away woes, have a stronger squad and a tactical edge, especially in midfield dominance. Their need to secure points for Champions League qualification will drive a more disciplined performance, making a win the most feasible outcome.
Correct Score Prediction: Atletico Madrid to Win 2-0
Atletico’s approach should see them maintain control and create several scoring opportunities. Alaves’ struggle to score, combined with Atletico’s need for a clean sheet to boost confidence, supports a 2-0 victory for the visitors.
Goalscorer Prediction: Álvaro Morata to Score
Morata’s form has been impressive, particularly in critical moments. His ability to find space in the box and his clinical finishing make him a likely candidate to score, especially against a team like Alaves, who have shown defensive inconsistency.
First Team to Score: Atletico Madrid
Given the tactical setup and the attacking quality at Atletico’s disposal, it is likely they will open the scoring. Their ability to control the game’s pace and create early opportunities will be key to breaking down Alaves’ defence.
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