Cardiff vs Swansea City Predictions

Cardiff vs Swansea City predictions for Saturday’s South Wales Derby. Cardiff and Swansea face off in Saturday’s South Wales derby, both hunting momentum with only one Championship win between them this season. Who will come out on top when these strugglers face off? Read on for our free Championship predictions and betting tips.

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Cardiff vs Swansea City Predictions


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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change


A Desperate Quest for Derby Dominance

Key Stats
– Cardiff have conceded in every match this season, highlighting defensive woes.
– Swansea enjoy a 55.6% ball possession, indicating their midfield control.
– Swansea have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning seven out of the last nine encounters.

Saturday promises fireworks as Cardiff City lock horns with Swansea City in the South Wales derby, with both teams hungering for a championship win. The Bluebirds, currently 19th in the Championship, hold a slender two-point advantage over their arch-rivals, Swansea. It paints a bleak picture for both clubs as they’ve managed to secure just one win between them this season.

When Erol Bulut took the reins at Cardiff City over the summer, he undoubtedly knew he was stepping into a challenging role. The club, having wrestled with the spectre of relegation in recent seasons, has started this campaign on shaky ground. A mere four points from five games, and three of those ending in disappointment, spotlight the magnitude of the challenge ahead.


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Cardiff’s overall quality hasn’t been the main concern. The real issue? Their vulnerability to conceding late goals. A classic example was their gut-wrenching loss against Ipswich Town. Leading by two goals approaching the 60-minute mark, Cardiff’s fans were thrown into despair as the Tractor Boys mounted a 19-minute offensive, overturning the game to a 3-2 victory.

On the other hand, Swansea, under Michael Duff, has been treading water, securing only two points from five outings. The narrow margins in their defeats, including a recent stinger against Bristol City where they squandered an early lead, further underline their struggle. With Joel Piroe’s departure, the Swans are feeling the pressure to reboot their season, particularly not wanting to fall further behind their derby rivals.

Tactical Team Talk

Cardiff are optimistic about the inclusion of Aaron Ramsey, despite him being subbed off during Wales’ clash against Latvia. While Ike Ugbo might replace Ollie Tanner, the core squad should remain unchanged.

Michael Duff, conversely, faces a selection conundrum for Swansea. With deliberations to tweak the formation, Joe Allen could reinforce the midfield, possibly replacing Oliver Cooper. Yet, much rides on Duff’s match-day strategy. The likes of Harrison Ashby are expected to feature, and Harry Darling could be a vital cog in their three-man defence.

Statistical Showdown

Cardiff City’s Top Players (BettingTips4You Expert Rating):

  • Aaron Ramsey: 7.30
  • Ike Ugbo: 7.06
  • Joe Ralls: 7.05

Swansea City’s Top Players (BettingTips4You Expert Rating):

  • Charlie Patino: 7.55
  • Harry Darling: 7.16
  • Matt Grimes: 7.08

Cardiff, boasting an average score of 6.81, have netted eight times but have leaked ten goals. Despite possessing the ball 46.4% of the time, they have failed to keep a clean sheet. Conversely, Swansea, with a slightly better rating of 6.83, have six goals to their name but have conceded nine. Their superior ball possession at 55.6% will be crucial in dictating the game’s tempo.

Pivotal Predictions

1. Match Outcome – Draw

While the South Wales Derby is often unpredictable due to the sheer passion and intensity of the fixture, there are certain patterns and statistics that can guide our predictions. Looking at the recent form of both teams this season, neither side can be truly confident going into this match.

Cardiff City are hovering in the 19th position and have only managed one win, and even that victory was followed by a crushing defeat to Ipswich Town despite having a two-goal lead. On the other hand, Swansea City, under Michael Duff, have been equally unconvincing. With two points from five games and each of their defeats coming by a slim one-goal margin, they haven’t found their rhythm yet.

Given the relative struggles of both teams, and their pressing need to avoid a defeat, especially in such a high-stakes derby, there is a strong likelihood that neither side will overcommit, thus increasing the chances of a stalemate.

2. Correct Score – 1-1

One key piece of data that stands out from both teams is their goalscoring and conceding patterns. Cardiff City, with eight goals from five matches, demonstrates a decent attacking output, but their defensive frailties are evident with ten goals conceded. Swansea, on the other hand, have a slightly less potent attack with six goals in five matches, but a comparable defensive record, having let in nine.

Given Cardiff’s slightly better attacking statistics, combined with playing on home turf, they might find the back of the net. However, considering Swansea’s decent attack, they too have a good chance to score. Factoring in the intense nature of derby games, where teams often play with extra caution, a 1-1 scoreline seems a plausible outcome.

3. Goalscorer Prediction – Ike Ugbo

When analysing the potential goalscorers for the match, it’s vital to consider recent form and statistics. For Cardiff City, Ike Ugbo stands out prominently. He’s their leading goalscorer this season with three goals, indicating his vital role in their attack. Notably, Ugbo has managed this tally with an impressive average BettingTips4You Expert Rating of 7.06. Given his form and importance to the team, he’s the most probable candidate from Cardiff to get on the scoresheet against Swansea.

Furthermore, considering that Swansea haven’t kept a clean sheet this season, this presents Ugbo with a golden opportunity to increase his goal tally. Given his current form and Swansea’s defensive vulnerabilities, banking on Ugbo to score seems like a wise prediction.


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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

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Gram Dodd
15-year veteran in the sports writing industry who has written betting previews for NFL, golf, football, racing, and tennis. Sports event of all time: the Miracle of Istanbul.