Cagliari vs Napoli Predictions

Cagliari vs Napoli predictions for this Serie A fixture in Sardinia. After a dramatic end to August, Napoli return from the international break to face Cagliari in Sardinia on Sunday evening, aiming to regain momentum both on and off the pitch. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Serie A | Sep 14, 2024 at 5pm UK at Sardegna Arena

Cagliari vs Napoli Predictions

Can Napoli Break Through Cagliari’s Defence in Sardinia?

• Napoli’s Improving Attack Napoli have scored five goals in their last two Serie A matches, averaging 19.7 total shots per game. Despite their recent goal-scoring form, they have not netted more than twice in 16 of their last 18 competitive away games, reflecting a cautious approach on the road.
• Cagliari’s Defensive Resilience Cagliari have conceded just two goals in their opening three matches of the season, despite facing an average of 15 shots per game. Their defence remains disciplined, making 26 clearances per game, though they struggle to convert defensive strength into attacking opportunities.
• Romelu Lukaku’s Record Against Cagliari Lukaku has scored in all three of his away games against Cagliari, netting four goals in total. His physical presence and aerial ability are likely to be key against a Cagliari defence that has won just 50.9% of aerial duels this season, providing a major threat from set pieces.

Best Bet

As Napoli prepare to face Cagliari in Sardinia, the two clubs find themselves at opposite ends of the Serie A spectrum in terms of form and ambitions. Napoli, fresh from back-to-back wins, seek to maintain their upward momentum, while Cagliari are still searching for their first victory of the season. Both teams return from the international break with renewed vigour, but only one can claim the upper hand at the end of 90 minutes.

Napoli have shown glimpses of the side that lifted the Scudetto last season, although their campaign has been marked by inconsistency. Under Antonio Conte, they have adopted a more pragmatic approach, but their struggles on the road persist, managing just two wins away from home since December 2023. Meanwhile, Cagliari, under new management, have found themselves battling to avoid another relegation scrap, having drawn two of their first three matches. The Sardinian side’s lack of firepower upfront has hindered their progress, and against a revitalised Napoli side, this could be their undoing.

A look at both teams’ recent form and statistical profiles points to Napoli as the clear favourites. However, a flood of goals seems unlikely in this encounter, making Napoli to win and under 2.5 goals the best betting option.

Napoli have shown improvement in recent games, registering a 3-0 win over Bologna and a dramatic 2-1 victory against Parma, yet they have not consistently blown teams away. The departure of Victor Osimhen has left them a bit less potent in attack, and while Romelu Lukaku’s arrival has been timely, it is still too early to expect Napoli to be free-scoring every week. Despite Lukaku’s goal-scoring pedigree, he is still adapting to Antonio Conte’s tactical setup, which may temper Napoli’s attacking output in the short term.

Cagliari’s defence, on the other hand, is not as porous as their poor start to the season might suggest. They have conceded just two goals across their three league matches and boast an average of 26 clearances per game, a testament to their ability to deal with pressure, even if they struggle to maintain control in midfield. Furthermore, with a low average of 0.3 goals per game, it is clear that Cagliari will struggle to break down a solid Napoli defence, particularly when the visitors control possession and restrict opportunities.

Moreover, Napoli’s performances away from home remain suspect. Even though they are likely to dominate possession, their away form over the past few months has been disappointing, and Cagliari’s tendency to keep games tight at home could see the match decided by narrow margins. BettingTips4You.com expert John Pentin echoes this sentiment:

“Cagliari have found it tough to score goals but are equally hard to break down. Napoli’s quality should see them over the line, but expecting a goal fest might be optimistic. A narrow win for Napoli seems the safest option, with under 2.5 goals offering solid value.”

Given Napoli’s defensive stability under Conte and Cagliari’s offensive struggles, backing the visitors to claim a low-scoring win seems prudent. A 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline fits the patterns we’ve seen in both teams’ early-season performances.

Correct Score Prediction: Napoli 2-0 Cagliari

The correct score prediction of 2-0 in favour of Napoli aligns well with the overall analysis of both teams. Napoli are the stronger side, and while Cagliari can be difficult to break down, they lack the firepower to pose a significant threat in attack.

Cagliari’s failure to score more than once in their opening three games, combined with Napoli’s improving defence, suggests that the visitors should be able to keep a clean sheet. Although Napoli have conceded four goals so far this season, their solidity under Conte is beginning to show, and Cagliari are unlikely to offer much threat, especially with their top scorer from last season, Zito Luvumbo, having failed to find the net in Serie A since February.

Napoli’s expected domination of possession—currently averaging 53.3% per game—will also limit Cagliari’s attacking opportunities. On the other hand, with five goals in their last two matches, Napoli are starting to find their rhythm in attack, but they may not need more than a couple of goals to secure victory against a defensively sound but toothless Cagliari side.

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