Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Predictions

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest predictions, betting tips and match previews for their Premier League clash. Burnley conclude their Premier League campaign against Nottingham Forest at Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips

Premier League | Gameweek 38 – May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK at Turf Moor

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Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Predictions

Nottingham Forest Aim to Capitalise on Burnley’s Woes in Season Finale

As Burnley conclude their latest Premier League season, they face Nottingham Forest at Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon. Despite their triumphant return to the top flight after winning the Championship title, Burnley’s season has been marked by struggle, culminating in their relegation confirmed after a defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. In contrast, Nottingham Forest, while not yet mathematically safe, are nearly assured of staying in the Premier League, barring an extraordinary goal swing.

Season Overview

Burnley’s Premier League campaign has been dismal, with only two victories in their 18 home matches. Their performance at Turf Moor has been particularly poor, having lost their first seven home games, and conceding multiple goals in 12 out of their 18 home fixtures. This inability to defend their home ground has been a significant factor in their relegation.

Nottingham Forest, under Nuno Espirito Santo, have also had a challenging season but have managed to stay above the relegation zone, largely due to the even poorer performances of the other promoted teams. They have struggled on the road, winning only once since Boxing Day, but have shown signs of offensive strength, scoring five goals in their last two league games.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Analysis

Burnley’s Predicted Lineup: Muric; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Larsen, Cullen, Berge, Vitinho; Odobert, Foster.

Nottingham Forest’s Predicted Lineup: Sels; Montiel, Boly, Murillo, Aina; Yates, Danilo; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.

Vincent Kompany may experiment with his starting XI, given that the match holds no consequence for their league position. Burnley’s typical approach under Kompany has involved trying to play attractive, attacking football, but their defence has frequently let them down. With Muric in goal, their defence led by O’Shea and Esteve, and a midfield anchored by Cullen and Berge, they will look to give their fans a final performance to cheer.

Nottingham Forest, likely to start with a strong lineup including the in-form Hudson-Odoi and the experienced Chris Wood, will aim to exploit Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities. Espirito Santo’s side has often relied on counter-attacks and the creative play of Gibbs-White and Elanga to break down opponents, which could be effective against a Burnley side that has struggled with errors leading to shots and goals.

Key Duels and Areas of Influence

One crucial duel will be between Burnley’s Jacob Bruun Larsen and Nottingham Forest’s defenders. Larsen, who has been one of Burnley’s few bright spots with six goals, will look to penetrate Forest’s backline. Meanwhile, Hudson-Odoi, with his recent goal-scoring form, will test Burnley’s defence, particularly on the flanks where Assignon and Taylor need to be vigilant.

The midfield battle will also be significant. Josh Cullen and Sander Berge for Burnley will need to control the tempo and prevent Forest’s Danilo and Yates from dominating possession and creating chances. This area could very well decide the game’s flow and outcome, with the team able to establish control in midfield likely having the upper hand.

Gameplay Expectations

Given both teams’ defensive frailties and offensive capabilities, an open game with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities is anticipated. Burnley will want to finish their season on a positive note, likely adopting an attacking stance. Nottingham Forest, despite being relatively safe, will aim to secure their position definitively with a strong performance.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Burnley:

• Strengths: Despite their poor season, Burnley have shown flashes of offensive potential, particularly through Larsen and Odobert. Their ability to score goals, with an average of 1.1 per game, can trouble Forest.
• Weaknesses: Defensively, Burnley have been abysmal, conceding 76 goals across the season. Their propensity for errors and poor tackling has led to numerous goals against them.

Nottingham Forest:

• Strengths: Nottingham Forest’s attacking prowess, particularly through Hudson-Odoi and Wood, has been notable. They are effective in counter-attacks and have scored 47 goals this season.
• Weaknesses: Defensively, they have been inconsistent, conceding 66 goals. Their away form has been particularly poor, with only one clean sheet in their last 13 away games.

Managers:

• Vincent Kompany: While Kompany’s attempt to implement an attractive style of play at Burnley is commendable, his inexperience at this level has shown, particularly in the defensive organisation of his team.
• Nuno Espirito Santo: Espirito Santo has managed to keep Forest above the relegation zone, but their inconsistency and reliance on counter-attacks indicate a lack of tactical depth. His ability to stabilise the team’s defence remains questionable.

Predictions and Rationale

Best Bet: Nottingham Forest to Win

Nottingham Forest to win is the best bet for this match, considering both teams’ recent performances and current form. Burnley have been woeful at home, with only two victories out of 18 matches at Turf Moor. Their defensive frailties have been glaring, as they have conceded multiple goals in the majority of their home games. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have shown a capacity to score, particularly through key players like Callum Hudson-Odoi and Chris Wood.

Despite their overall inconsistency, Forest’s attacking prowess and Burnley’s defensive lapses make Forest the favourites. Additionally, Burnley’s morale is likely to be low following their confirmed relegation, whereas Forest will be motivated to secure their Premier League status definitively. Therefore, given the contrasting form and the psychological edge, Nottingham Forest are well-placed to secure a win.

Correct Score Prediction: Nottingham Forest 3-1 Burnley

The correct score prediction of 3-1 in favour of Nottingham Forest aligns with the anticipated dynamics of the game. Burnley’s defence has been a significant weakness throughout the season, conceding 76 goals in 37 matches, an average of over two goals per game. Nottingham Forest, who have scored 47 goals this season, are well-equipped to exploit Burnley’s defensive issues.

With players like Hudson-Odoi and Wood in form, Forest are likely to find the back of the net multiple times. Burnley, despite their struggles, have managed to score in most of their matches, averaging 1.1 goals per game. This suggests they can at least breach Forest’s defence once. Hence, a 3-1 scoreline reflects both Forest’s attacking strengths and Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities while acknowledging Burnley’s potential to score.

Goalscorer Prediction: Callum Hudson-Odoi to Score

Callum Hudson-Odoi is a strong candidate to score in this match, given his recent impressive form. He has found the net four times in his last three appearances, showcasing his ability to make a significant impact in the final third.

Burnley’s defence has been porous all season, making them susceptible to skilful attackers like Hudson-Odoi. His pace and dribbling skills will be a constant threat to Burnley’s backline, which has conceded multiple goals in numerous matches. Additionally, Hudson-Odoi has been consistently getting shots on target, increasing his chances of scoring. Given Burnley’s defensive struggles and Hudson-Odoi’s current form, he is well-positioned to add to his goal tally in this match.

Corner Prediction: Nottingham Forest to Get More Corners

Nottingham Forest are likely to win more corners in this match due to their attacking style and Burnley’s defensive approach. Forest average 3.9 corners per game, which reflects their offensive mentality and ability to create chances. Burnley, who have struggled with maintaining possession and controlling games, often find themselves on the back foot, leading to a higher number of corners conceded.

Given that Forest are expected to dominate the attacking play, particularly with players like Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi driving forward, they are likely to generate more corner opportunities. Burnley’s defensive frailties and tendency to concede corners will further contribute to this outcome. Thus, Forest winning more corners aligns with the expected flow of the game.

Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target Over 8.5

A bet on the total team shots on target exceeding 8.5 is well-supported by the offensive capabilities of both teams and their defensive vulnerabilities. Burnley average 3.8 shots on target per game, while Nottingham Forest also average 3.8 shots on target per game. This indicates that both teams are capable of generating a considerable number of shots on target during matches.

Given the anticipated open nature of this game, with both teams looking to end their season positively, there should be numerous opportunities for shots on goal. Burnley’s defensive weaknesses and Forest’s attacking strengths suggest that Forest will have plenty of shots on target, while Burnley’s determination to give their fans something to cheer about will drive their offensive efforts. Combining the averages of both teams and the expected gameplay dynamics, a total of over 8.5 shots on target is a plausible and attractive betting angle for this match.

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