Burnley vs Liverpool Predictions

Burnley vs Liverpool predictions for this Premier League fixture at Turf Moor. Premier League leaders Liverpool, the reigning champions, visit newly-promoted Burnley on Sunday’s opening top-flight fixture. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips and don’t miss the best bookies’ offers below.

Premier League | Sep 14 2025 at 2:00 pm UK at Turf Moor

Burnley vs Liverpool Predictions

Can Turf Moor’s stubborn streak slow the champions, or does Liverpool’s depth turn the screw late on?

• Liverpool’s shot quality edge
  • Across three league matches, Liverpool boast a 73.9% shots-on-target ratio and average 5.67 on-target efforts per game, a profile that usually cracks sides conceding heavy box volume.
• Burnley’s box protection frays
  • Burnley are bottom for shots in the box conceded and own a 33.3% SiB ratio, with 4.33 shots on target allowed per match, making prolonged resistance against elite attackers very hard to sustain.
• The champions’ inevitability streak
  • Liverpool have scored in 37 consecutive Premier League games and collected nine points already, creating six big chances while conceding none — a blend of resilience and consistent threat.

Best Bet for Burnley vs Liverpool

There’s always a particular mood around Turf Moor when champions come to town: a little bit of mischief, a lot of grit, and a fanbase who fancy a rumble even when the bookmakers don’t. Liverpool arrive as Premier League leaders with a perfect record intact and a streak of scoring that just keeps rumbling on, yet Burnley aren’t rolling out a red carpet.

Scott Parker’s side have been a tangle of promise and vulnerability through three games, showing moments of tidy build-up and purpose, but also allowing more traffic into their box than is remotely comfortable. They are unbeaten here in the league since May 2024 and, for all the talk of adjustments to top-flight tempo, they’ve not been easy to shift at Turf Moor for a while.

Arne Slot’s men, meanwhile, are purring without always playing at full tilt. They dealt with Arsenal on a set piece, found late answers at Newcastle, and racked up a multi-goal win over Bournemouth even after wobbling mid-match. The soundtrack has been consistency more than swagger. With Atletico Madrid and Everton looming, the champions probably don’t want this to become a slog, but there’s a hint this could be exactly that: a tight, tactical wrestle before the quality starts to bite. Slot has a new hammer in the toolbox in Alexander Isak, even if he’s more likely to cameo than conduct. The form of Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitike already gives Liverpool thrust from the left and through the middle, and Dominik Szoboszlai continues to bend games with that wicked dead-ball touch and tireless running on the right side.

Burnley are a puzzle that’s not yet solved. They were outgunned at Tottenham, took care of Sunderland at home, and made Manchester United sweat at Old Trafford. Their numbers shout that they’re conceding too many shots in prime locations, yet they’ve still fashioned four goals and won a decent share of territory in spells. In short, there’s enough bite to keep Liverpool honest, but sufficient looseness that an elite attack usually cashes in. It’s not a mismatch so much as a test of whether Burnley’s structure can hold under repeated strain — and whether Liverpool keep their heads with a busy week ahead.

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Best Bet for this match

Cody Gakpo To Score, Liverpool To Win, Both Teams To Score at 13/2

Here at BettingTips4You we only put forward a single prediction per event — the clearest, strongest angle we can find — because we believe in quality over quantity. No scattergun selections, no hedging. One bet, fully reasoned, and easy to track for profitability. For this fixture, our ultimate prediction is Cody Gakpo to score, Liverpool to win, and both teams to score at 13/2 — chosen after weighing every plausible pathway this match can take.

The rationale starts with Burnley’s defensive profile through the opening weeks. Parker’s men are bottom for shots in the box conceded and own the league’s lowest shots-in-box ratio at just 33.3%. They’ve also shipped 4.33 shots on target per game, which is a red flag against a side who currently rank third for shots-on-target ratio at 73.9% and are averaging 5.67 efforts on target themselves. That combination typically leads to the inevitable: pressure, box entries, and cut-backs — precisely the food Gakpo thrives on. He has registered six shots across three outings and is drawing a bundle of fouls as he isolates full-backs and darts inside. Burnley’s tendency to use tactical fouls under stress tells you they’ve been dealing with a lot of one-v-one defending in wide zones; that’s Gakpo territory.

Liverpool are not just winning; they’re scoring and scoring again. They have found the net in 37 straight Premier League matches, and the way their current XI distributes threat is awkward to contain. Mohamed Salah pins the right channel, Szoboszlai underlaps and delivers quality from set plays, and Florian Wirtz roams into pockets where it hurts. With Ekitike occupying centre-backs and Gakpo popping up at the back post or slicing inside from the left, there are too many moving parts for a backline still knitting together. Even if Alexander Isak is introduced late, that only adds more chaos for tired legs to chase.

But this isn’t simply a “Liverpool cruise” narrative. There’s ample evidence this could be one of those messy away days that drives champions slightly mad before they break through. The Reds have lost three of their last five league away games (albeit under conditions where the title race was already settled), and they needed stoppage time to get over the line at Newcastle. Burnley’s 25-match unbeaten home run in the league is not to be dismissed either. They have avoided heavy home defeats in five of their last six top-flight games here, and their attack has already delivered in two of three matches this season. Lyle Foster offers out-ball utility, Jaidon Anthony carries the dribble threat, and Jacob Bruun Larsen can whip early deliveries if Liverpool’s full-backs step high. Factor in Josh Cullen’s neat passing angles and the potential debut of Florentino Luis adding legs in midfield, and Burnley have enough to generate moments, especially in transition when Liverpool’s rest-defence is stretched.

That’s why the BTTS part of the bet makes sense. Liverpool’s structure under Slot is more controlled, yet they remain a touch open when they commit numbers forward. Against sides who are content to sit, then spring, the champions can be nicked on a counter if they mismanage spacing around second balls. Burnley’s non-penalty xG sits around 1.07 per game so far — not sparkling, but sufficient to nick a goal with a bit of Turf Moor turbulence behind them.

On the game-state dynamics: if Liverpool score first, Burnley will have to tilt up sooner than they’d like, and that’s when the champions usually locate a second or third wave of chances. If Burnley strike first — not impossible given their set-piece threat and the odd edgy away start from Liverpool — the champions’ response patterns this season have been assertive. They recovered from adversity against Bournemouth, and they kept plugging until a late winner at Newcastle. Those traits are ideal for the win component in our bet.

Gakpo specifically is the attacking fulcrum to anchor this builder. His shot map trends toward the penalty spot and left half-space, and Burnley have conceded a high percentage of opportunities from central zones inside the box — a double whammy. With Kerkez overlapping and Wirtz drawing markers centrally, Gakpo should see service across the face or be left in isolation versus Kyle Walker in tough body orientations. Even if he doesn’t start inside the width of the posts, he habitually arrives there. Given his early-season volume and foul-drawing, there’s also the potential for a deflection or rebound scenario. He’s in rhythm; Burnley’s back four aren’t yet.

Rotation and energy also favour this angle. Slot might preserve minutes ahead of Atletico Madrid and Everton, but the core remains strong: Alisson’s calm, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate anchor the middle, Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister recycle possession, and the front four’s chemistry is stable. If Alexander Isak features at all, it’s gasoline on a fire already burning — not a tactical overhaul.

And the small caveat everyone is whispering: last season Liverpool sometimes huffed against low blocks. Three of the bottom-possession sides took points off them. That’s true — but the difference now is extra individual quality between the lines (Wirtz), a more balanced box-occupation pattern, and a renewed set-piece edge from Szoboszlai. Even if Burnley bunker, the champions have more solutions than they did a year ago. One set play, one cut-back, one Gakpo chop inside, and the door creaks open.

BettingTips4You.com expert quote — Steve Harrington (UK): “Burnley will hunker down and punch on the break, but Liverpool’s layered chance creation is the key. Gakpo’s timing of runs into the box looks tailor-made for this matchup.”

At 13/2, the combination of Gakpo to score, Liverpool to win, and both teams to score is priced to respect Burnley’s stubborn streak while leaning into the champions’ superior firepower and the winger’s current output. It’s the single, clearest route that captures the likely flow at Turf Moor without demanding a blowout.

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Likely line-ups and tactical threads woven in

Burnley are expected to shape in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 variant: Dubravka; Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman; a trio led by Cullen and Ugochukwu, with Mejbri potentially threading runs ahead; Bruun Larsen, Foster, Anthony supplying width and movement. Parker’s midfield balance is crucial — if Florentino enters, the hosts gain bite and screening, though he may be eased in.

Liverpool should mirror their recent 4-2-3-1: Alisson; Szoboszlai at right-back again if required, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister as the controllers; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo behind Ekitike. Jeremie Frimpong and Curtis Jones remain sidelined, while Isak has the cameo card. The away side will tilt possession, look to pin Burnley’s full-backs, and trust that repeated entries eventually yield the big chance. If the game gets stuck, set pieces and Szoboszlai’s delivery give an additional lever.

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What might the scoreline say?

A measured, slightly wild afternoon feels about right. Burnley should have enough thrust to land a punch, but Liverpool’s relentlessness plus Gakpo’s form tip the scales. Correct score: Burnley 1–3 Liverpool. The visitors’ shot volume and set-piece threat should tell eventually, yet Turf Moor’s defiance earns the hosts a goal.

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