Burnley vs Everton predictions for Saturday’s Premier League clash at Turf Moor. Seeking their fourth consecutive Premier League win, Everton heads to Lancashire to face relegation rivals Burnley. The match also marks Sean Dyche’s return to Turf Moor. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Match Live Saturday, 16th December at 5:30 pm In:
Burnley vs Everton Predictions
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Key Stats
– Burnley have lost seven out of eight home games this season.
– Abdoulaye Doucoure has scored in three of Everton’s last five matches.
As the Premier League continues to unfold with its unpredictable drama, we find ourselves focusing on a crucial encounter at Turf Moor. Here, Everton, rejuvenated under Sean Dyche’s stewardship, are set to clash with a Burnley side led by Vincent Kompany, where both teams are entrenched in a desperate fight to evade relegation.
Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match
BEST VALUE BET £20 Returns £86   Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Best Value Bet Rationale
Doucoure, with an impressive average rating of 7.09, is known for his robust presence in midfield. His tackling ability is not merely a defensive attribute but a crucial element of Everton’s overall strategy, especially under Sean Dyche’s management. Dyche’s approach, focusing on defensive solidity and tactical discipline, often relies on midfielders to disrupt the opposition’s play. In this context, Doucoure’s role becomes even more significant.
The statistics bolster this prediction. Doucoure has started all 16 of Everton’s league matches, averaging 1.5 tackles per game. Given Burnley’s playing style under Vincent Kompany, which emphasises possession-based football, Doucoure will likely find numerous opportunities to engage in tackles as Everton look to disrupt Burnley’s rhythm and launch counter-attacks.
Moreover, considering Burnley’s form and Everton’s recent resurgence, the match is likely to be a closely contested affair, with midfield battles playing a crucial role. Doucoure, known for his work rate and ability to cover ground, will be pivotal in these duels. His responsibility in breaking up play and initiating transitions will inevitably lead to multiple tackling scenarios.
In summary, betting on Abdoulaye Doucoure to achieve over 1.5 tackles in the game against Burnley offers value, especially with the boosted odds. This bet aligns well with the tactical setup of both teams and Doucoure’s established role in Everton’s midfield dynamics. As always, it’s important to note that odds are subject to change, and terms and conditions apply.
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Pre-Match Analysis:
Everton’s resurgence is the talk of the town. Their recent triumphs, including a notable victory over Chelsea, have been underpinned by a newfound defensive solidity and an efficient counter-attacking style. The Toffees, positioned 17th, are four points clear of the drop zone, a testament to their improved form. In contrast, Burnley, lingering at 19th, recently managed a draw against Brighton, showcasing resilience but also a need for more incisive play.
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Expected Line-Ups and Tactical Insight:
Burnley, potentially without the services of key players like Charlie Taylor and Aaron Ramsey due to injuries and suspensions, might have to rejig their formation. We could see Charlie Roberts stepping in, adding a fresh dynamic to the backline. Everton, on the other hand, might see Michael Keane and James Tarkowski forming a formidable central defensive duo, both former Burnley players, bringing a psychological edge.
Everton’s probable lineup, led by Dominic Calvert-Lewin in attack, is expected to leverage their recent form and confidence. The blend of Doucoure’s attacking prowess and Onana’s midfield control could be pivotal.
Everton’s Strengths and Weaknesses:
Dyche’s Everton have shown a remarkable defensive turnaround, with three consecutive clean sheets. However, their reliance on counter-attacks and set-pieces could be a double-edged sword. The absence of Jarrad Branthwaite and Idrissa Gueye due to suspension might impact their midfield and defensive solidity.
Burnley’s Strategic Conundrum:
Kompany’s Burnley has struggled to translate possession into tangible results. Their attacking flair, often visible, lacks the finishing touch, something they desperately need to fix. The Clarets’ defensive vulnerabilities, especially at home, are a significant concern, with seven defeats in eight home matches.
Managerial Match-up:
This game also presents an intriguing managerial battle. Dyche, returning to his old hunting ground, is known for his pragmatic approach, while Kompany, despite his team’s position, has tried to implement a more possession-based style. However, Kompany’s tactics have been less effective in the Premier League, and he faces heavy criticism for not adapting quickly enough to the league’s rigors.
Tactical Analysis: Deep Dive
In the upcoming Premier League face-off between Burnley and Everton, a study of their offensive and defensive strategies, key player performances, and managerial impact reveal intriguing insights. Both clubs, striving to solidify their positions and escape relegation woes, exhibit distinct tactical approaches under their respective managers, Vincent Kompany and Sean Dyche.
Offensive and Defensive Strategies: Burnley, under Kompany’s stewardship, have embraced a possession-based approach, quite a shift from their traditional direct style. This tactical evolution, however, has yet to yield consistent success in the Premier League. Their attacking play often focuses on building from the back, but this has exposed vulnerabilities, particularly in transitioning to defense. Key players like Josh Brownhill and Wilson Odobert have shown sparks in offensive contributions, but overall, the team struggles to convert possession into concrete chances.
Everton, conversely, under Dyche, has showcased a remarkable turnaround, particularly in defensive solidity. Dyche’s strategy of conceding possession but fortifying defensive lines has proven effective. Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have been pivotal in their counter-attacking setup, exploiting spaces left by opponents. This approach has seen Everton secure crucial wins, including a notable victory against Chelsea.
Individual Performances: Everton’s recent resurgence owes much to the form of Doucoure and Calvert-Lewin. Doucoure, apart from his goal-scoring, has been instrumental in linking play, while Calvert-Lewin’s return to form provides Everton with a focal point in attack. Dwight McNeil’s resurgence, contributing both goals and assists, has also been a significant factor.
For Burnley, goalkeeper James Trafford’s heroics have been a highlight. However, the lack of consistency from key outfield players like Brownhill and Odobert has hindered their attacking efficacy. Defensively, the team has appeared disjointed at times, resulting in them conceding goals at a worrying rate.
Managerial Impact: Kompany’s arrival at Burnley brought a promise of a new, attractive style of football. However, adapting to this philosophy in the demanding environment of the Premier League has been challenging. The team’s struggle to balance offensive creativity with defensive stability is evident.
Dyche’s impact on Everton, in contrast, is clearly positive. He has instilled a sense of defensive discipline and tactical awareness. His ability to motivate players and extract the best from them, especially in challenging situations, has been commendable.
Expected Goals Analysis: Burnley’s expected goals (xG) statistics indicate a team creating fewer quality chances than required for Premier League survival. Their xG numbers are reflective of a team struggling in the lower echelons of the league.
Everton’s xG, on the other hand, has seen an uptick in recent games. Their defensive approach doesn’t necessarily create a high volume of chances, but the quality of these chances has been higher, leading to more effective goal-scoring opportunities.
Tactical Comparison: Burnley’s possession-based football contrasts with Everton’s pragmatic, defensively oriented approach. While Burnley attempts to control games through ball retention, Everton focuses on defensive organisation and exploiting moments in transition. This tactical dichotomy will be fascinating to watch as it unfolds on the pitch.
Suggestions for Improvement: Burnley needs to find a balance between their attractive style and defensive solidity. They could benefit from a more pragmatic approach in certain games, especially against teams that exploit their defensive vulnerabilities.
Everton, while solid defensively, could look to diversify their attacking play. Relying solely on counter-attacks might not always yield results, especially against teams that sit deep.
Pros and Cons of Strategies: Burnley’s style is aesthetically pleasing but lacks defensive cohesiveness, making them susceptible to counter-attacks. Everton’s strategy, while effective defensively, can lead to periods of sustained pressure from opponents, requiring excellent defensive discipline.
Managerial Strengths and Weaknesses: Kompany’s insistence on a possession-based approach at Burnley can be seen as both a strength and a weakness. It shows a commitment to a style but also a certain naivety in the Premier League’s unforgiving environment. Dyche’s experience and tactical nous have been evident at Everton, but his conservative approach might limit the team’s potential in games where they could be more expansive.
Controversial Angle: One could argue that Kompany’s tactical stubbornness is leading Burnley down a precarious path. His refusal to adapt his style to the demands of the Premier League could be his undoing. On the other hand, Dyche, while celebrated for turning Everton’s fortunes, might need to show more tactical flexibility to ensure long-term success.
Predictions
- Match Outcome: Everton Win Everton’s recent resurgence is no fluke. Their last three victories, especially the win against Chelsea, have not only bolstered their confidence but have also demonstrated their ability to execute Dyche’s tactical vision effectively. Burnley, despite playing at home, have struggled significantly in their backyard. Everton’s superior form and strategic discipline, particularly in defence, make them the likely victors in this encounter.
- Correct Score: Burnley 0-1 Everton This prediction stems from a combination of Everton’s newfound defensive solidity and Burnley’s difficulties in front of goal. Everton’s recent matches have seen them efficiently close down games, while Burnley has been wasteful in converting chances. A solitary goal could be enough for Everton to clinch another valuable win.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Abdoulaye Doucoure Doucoure has emerged as a critical figure in Everton’s attack, showcasing an eye for goal in recent outings. His ability to break into the box and connect with crosses makes him a significant threat, especially against a Burnley side that has shown vulnerability in defending dynamic midfield runs.
- Corner Prediction: Everton to Get More Corners Everton’s direct style of play, coupled with their reliance on set-pieces, is likely to force Burnley into conceding corners. Given Burnley’s struggle to maintain possession and Everton’s propensity to attack with width, the Toffees are expected to win more corners.
- Shot on Target Prediction: Dominic Calvert-Lewin Calvert-Lewin’s physicality and positioning make him a prime candidate to test the goalkeeper. His ability to get on the end of crosses and take chances in the box should see him register at least one shot on target, especially considering Burnley’s defensive frailties.
- Yellow Card Prediction: James Tarkowski A return to Turf Moor could see Tarkowski play with heightened intensity against his former club. His aggressive style, coupled with the game’s high stakes, may lead to him committing a challenge worthy of a booking.
- Assist Prediction: Dwight McNeil McNeil’s recent upturn in form, particularly his improved crossing and set-piece delivery, makes him a likely candidate to provide an assist. His understanding with Everton’s forwards, especially Calvert-Lewin, could be crucial in unlocking Burnley’s defence.
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