Burnley vs Derby County Predictions

Burnley vs Derby County predictions for this EFL Cup. Burnley host Derby County at Turf Moor on Tuesday evening in the EFL Cup second round, with a Premier League–Championship clash on show. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

EFL Cup | Aug 26 2025 at 7:45 pm UK at Turf Moor

Burnley vs Derby County Predictions

Can Turf Moor Witness Another Burnley Statement or Will Derby Spoil the Party?

• Burnley’s recent dominance: The Clarets have recorded eight wins in their last ten matches across all competitions, showing the type of consistency that usually translates well in knockout football.
• Derby’s defensive fragility: The Rams have shipped nine goals in just their last three outings, a run that highlights their struggles to maintain defensive organisation under sustained pressure.
• Turf Moor factor: With a home crowd of over 22,000 pushing them forward, Burnley tend to play with extra intensity, especially in cup ties where momentum can shift quickly.

Best Bet for Burnley vs Derby County

Cup nights in Lancashire have a way of stirring emotions, and Tuesday evening promises another one of those dramatic evenings. Burnley are set to host Derby County in the second round of the EFL Cup, with both sides carrying very different ambitions into the tie. The Clarets, fresh from a Premier League win over Sunderland, are looking to build some momentum while juggling survival in the top flight.

Derby, meanwhile, stumble into this game with a modest start to their Championship campaign, yet harbouring hopes of a big upset. For the Rams, this is about pride and progress; for Burnley, it’s about confidence and depth.

There’s something almost poetic about this clash – a Premier League outfit with rotation on their minds versus a Championship side desperate to prove they can mix it with the elite. Turf Moor will not be forgiving, but cup football has taught us time and again that pressure and unpredictability thrive under the lights.

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Best Bet for This Match: Burnley to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

Here at BettingTips4You, we don’t mess about with a dozen confusing predictions. We keep it simple: one game, one bet, and the best one at that. That way, you don’t have to waste time sifting through multiple picks, and we remain accountable — you’ll always know if we’ve nailed it or missed the target. For this tie, the strongest play is Burnley to win combined with over 2.5 goals.

Why this? Let’s be honest, Burnley are a Premier League side with more quality even when they rotate. Parker is likely to shuffle his deck, with Max Weiss expected in goal and new names like Joe Worrall, Marcus Edwards and Zian Flemming set for minutes. Cullen, who struck last weekend, should be rested, but the depth still screams superior. Their attacking options — Edwards’ flair, Flemming’s physical edge, and Tchaouna’s pace — point towards Burnley creating plenty of chances. Add in their recent 2-0 win over Sunderland, where Anthony produced a sparkling 8.11 BettingTips4You Expert Rating, and you sense that their forward line is clicking.

On the flip side, Derby are leaking goals far too easily. Conceding five at home to Coventry is borderline embarrassing for a side hoping to settle mid-table in the Championship, and while they steadied slightly with a 1-1 draw against Bristol City, defensive lapses remain obvious. They’ve got players like Brewster and Goudmijn who will ask questions, but against a Premier League back line — even a rotated one — you’d have to back Burnley to have the extra composure.

The tempo of Derby’s recent games also plays into this selection. Their last three have produced 13 goals in total, and they’re averaging more than two goals conceded per game this season. Combine that volatility with Burnley’s tendency to punish teams at Turf Moor, and the over 2.5 goals element becomes hard to ignore.

As BettingTips4You.com expert Graham Hartshorn summed it up:

“This tie has Burnley’s authority written all over it, but Derby’s habit of conceding and still finding a goal themselves makes the Burnley & over 2.5 goals market stand out.”

Cup matches can occasionally be cagey, but I’d be surprised if this one is. Burnley will want it wrapped up early, while Derby’s best hope is to play with freedom and try to punch back when possible. Expect an open affair tilted heavily towards the Premier League side.

Prediction-wise, Burnley should edge it comfortably, and the scoreline I lean towards is 3-1. It reflects Burnley’s superiority but also acknowledges Derby’s ability to nick something, given their attacking spirit and Brewster’s potential influence.

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