Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth Predictions

Burnley vs Bournemouth predictions for this Premier League meeting. Burnley and Bournemouth, both winless in February, aim to kickstart their March with a win in Sunday’s Premier League match at Turf Moor. Read on for all our free Premier League predictions and betting tips.


Premier League | Gameweek 27 – Mar 3, 2024 at 1pm UK at Turf Moor

Burnley vs AFC Bournemouth Predictions

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A Battle of Nerves and Strategy: Turf Moor’s Decisive Duel

Key Stats

– Bournemouth have scored in each of their last nine Premier League away matches.

– Burnley have the worst home record in the Premier League this season, with just five points from Turf Moor.

– The combined defensive record of both teams has seen over 105 goals conceded this term, highlighting the defensive challenges both sides face.

As Burnley and Bournemouth prepare to lock horns in a pivotal Premier League clash at Turf Moor, both sides find themselves in a precarious position, having not secured a single victory throughout February. With the spectre of relegation looming large, this encounter is more than just a match; it’s a fight for survival, a test of resolve, and a chance to make a statement.

Turmoil at Turf Moor

Burnley’s recent form under Vincent Kompany has been a cause for concern, with a shocking 3-0 defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace marking their third consecutive league loss. The Clarets have conceded an alarming 11 goals in their last three matches, a statistic that paints a grim picture of their defensive woes. Currently languishing in 19th place, the spectre of relegation is a real threat, and Kompany is under immense pressure to steer the ship away from the rocks.


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Burnley’s home record this season has been particularly dismal, with the team securing a mere five points at Turf Moor – the worst in the division. This match presents a crucial opportunity to break the cycle of defeats and start March on a positive note. However, Burnley’s task is complicated by the suspension of Josh Brownhill and injuries to key players, which could force Kompany to rethink his strategy.

Bournemouth’s Battle for Consistency

On the other side, Bournemouth’s early 2023 momentum has stalled, with the team failing to win in their last six outings. Despite a promising phase between November and January, Andoni Iraola’s side has struggled for consistency, highlighted by their recent FA Cup exit at the hands of Leicester City.

The Cherries’ away form offers a glimmer of hope, having scored in each of their last nine Premier League away matches. However, defensive frailties have seen them concede multiple goals in four of their last five away fixtures. The potential return of Dominic Solanke could boost Bournemouth’s attack, but the team must address their defensive vulnerabilities to secure a much-needed victory.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Insight

Burnley are expected to field a lineup that includes Trafford; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Gudmundsson, Berge, Cullen, Odobert; Amdouni, Datro Fofana. This setup suggests Kompany might continue to rely on a blend of youth and experience, with Cullen stepping in for the suspended Brownhill. The inclusion of Amdouni and Fofana upfront indicates a desire to exploit Bournemouth’s defensive gaps with pace and directness.

Bournemouth’s likely lineup of Neto; Smith, Zabarnyi, Senesi, Kerkez; Cook, Christie; Tavernier, Billing, Sinisterra; Solanke showcases their attacking intent. Solanke’s potential return could provide the cutting edge Bournemouth has been missing, while the midfield battle, led by Cook and Christie, will be crucial in dominating possession and creating chances.

Key Battles and Strategic Decisions

The match could be decided in the midfield, where both teams look to assert control and dictate the pace of the game. The duel between Berge and Cook could be particularly influential, with both players capable of swinging the momentum in their team’s favour. Additionally, the defensive units of both sides will need to step up, with Burnley’s O’Shea and Bournemouth’s Senesi playing pivotal roles in preventing breaches.

Tactical Analysis: Deep Dive

The tale of Burnley under Vincent Kompany this season has been one of unfulfilled potential and defensive woes. The Clarets’ backline, once a bastion of resilience, has been breached with alarming frequency, conceding 11 goals in their last three matches alone. The absence of Josh Brownhill, following a red card incident, exacerbates the midfield’s challenges, leaving a void in both defensive cover and transitional play. Burnley’s offensive efforts, while earnest, often lack the final touch, as evidenced by their meagre tally of 25 goals this season.

Players like David Datro Fofana and Zeki Amdouni show promise but are yet to consistently translate effort into impact. The team’s reliance on counterattacks and set-pieces highlights a strategy struggling to compensate for its defensive frailties.

Conversely, Bournemouth’s season, under the stewardship of Andoni Iraola, narrates a saga of early promise dimmed by recent form. The Cherries’ attack, spearheaded by Dominic Solanke, possesses the dynamism and creativity to unsettle any defence, as showcased in their ability to score in consecutive away fixtures. However, their defensive line, much like Burnley’s, has been a source of concern, with a tendency to concede multiple goals, undermining their efforts upfront.

The midfield duo of Lewis Cook and Philip Billing, alongside the wide threats posed by Ryan Christie and Marcus Tavernier, offers a blend of creativity and tenacity, yet the team’s overall coherence fluctuates, reflecting a squad still adapting to Iraola’s tactical philosophy.

The contrast in managerial styles between Kompany and Iraola is stark, yet both face similar criticisms for their teams’ performances. Kompany, a figure revered in Manchester City lore, has struggled to instill a consistent defensive rigour in his side, while also failing to fully exploit the attacking talents at his disposal.

Iraola, despite engineering a commendable mid-season resurgence, now faces scrutiny over his ability to arrest the Cherries’ slide. The Spanish tactician’s offensive mindset is laudable, but often leaves Bournemouth exposed at the back, a vulnerability astutely exploited by their opponents.


Expected goals (xG) metrics shed light on the inefficiencies plaguing both teams. Burnley’s xG figures underscore a team creating chances but faltering in conversion, a testament to their forwards’ underwhelming form. Bournemouth, with a slightly more favourable xG, demonstrate a capacity to threaten goals but are similarly blighted by finishing woes and defensive generosity. The upcoming clash, therefore, presents a narrative of two teams, each with the firepower to outscore the other, yet equally susceptible to capitulation.

Tactically, Burnley’s predicament stems from a defence that, for all its endeavour, lacks coherence and discipline, often caught out by swift counter-attacks or intricate passing movements. Bournemouth’s strategy, centred around aggressive pressing and quick transitions, offers a compelling counterpoint but is equally flawed, with gaps frequently appearing between the lines, ripe for exploitation.

The expected lineups, with Burnley likely missing pivotal figures and Bournemouth buoyed by the potential return of Solanke, hint at a match where tactical flexibility and individual brilliance could prove decisive.

Improvements for both teams are manifold. Burnley must find a balance between defensive solidity and offensive ambition, possibly by tightening their midfield structure and fostering greater synergy between their attackers. Bournemouth, meanwhile, could benefit from a more disciplined defensive setup, ensuring their attacking forays do not leave them overly exposed at the back.

This match, laden with implications for both teams’ Premier League survival, offers a fascinating study in contrasts. On one hand, Burnley, a team struggling to align its defensive and offensive units into a cohesive force. On the other, Bournemouth, whose tactical audacity is both their greatest strength and most glaring weakness. The managerial acumen of Kompany and Iraola, under intense scrutiny, will be pivotal in orchestrating a victory that, for either side, could rekindle hopes of a season salvaged from the brink.

Predictions and Analysis

1. Match Outcome: Both Teams to Score

Given the defensive frailties displayed by both Burnley and Bournemouth throughout the season, it seems prudent to anticipate goals at both ends of the pitch in this encounter. Burnley, despite their struggles, manage to find the back of the net with a certain regularity at Turf Moor, indicating a potential to breach Bournemouth’s backline.

Conversely, Bournemouth’s attack, especially with the potential return of Dominic Solanke, poses a significant threat to Burnley’s vulnerable defence. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, with Burnley letting in a substantial number of goals in their recent outings and Bournemouth’s away games frequently featuring a high goal tally. This prediction hinges on both sides’ consistent inability to keep clean sheets and their comparative effectiveness in front of goal.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Burnley 1-2 Bournemouth

Analysing the teams’ recent performances and defensive vulnerabilities, a 1-2 victory for Bournemouth seems a realistic outcome. Burnley’s record at home this season paints a grim picture, with the team struggling to secure points and maintain defensive solidity. Bournemouth, despite their inconsistencies, have demonstrated the ability to score in their away fixtures. Given Burnley’s recent capitulation and Bournemouth’s attacking potential, a narrow win for the visitors is anticipated, reflecting both teams’ current form and the critical nature of the clash in their respective seasons.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Dominic Solanke to Score

Dominic Solanke’s importance to Bournemouth’s attacking endeavours cannot be overstated. His potential return from injury could provide the cutting edge Bournemouth have been missing in recent fixtures. Solanke’s knack for finding himself in goal-scoring positions, combined with Burnley’s leaky defence, makes him a prime candidate to find the net in this match. His physical presence, aerial ability, and clinical finishing make him a constant threat, especially against a Burnley side that has shown susceptibility to both set-pieces and open play situations.

4. Corner Prediction: Bournemouth to Win More Corners

Given Bournemouth’s attacking style and propensity to push forward in numbers, especially against teams lower in the table, they are likely to win more corners. This prediction is supported by the tactical approach of both teams; Burnley, under Kompany, have shown a tendency to absorb pressure and counter, which could lead to Bournemouth forcing corners through sustained attacking phases. Additionally, Bournemouth’s wide players, such as Ryan Christie and Marcus Tavernier, regularly deliver crosses, further increasing the likelihood of corners.

Total Number of Corners: Over 10 Considering both teams’ playing styles and the stakes of the match, it’s expected that there will be a significant number of corners. Bournemouth’s attacking approach and Burnley’s potential counters, combined with the defensive vulnerabilities of both sides, should contribute to a game rich in set-piece situations, including corners.

5. Shot on Target Prediction: Marcus Tavernier to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Marcus Tavernier’s role as a creative force for Bournemouth, coupled with his tendency to take shots from distance, positions him well to achieve one or more shots on target in this match. Tavernier’s confidence in taking on defenders and finding shooting opportunities, especially against a Burnley side that has struggled to close down opponents effectively, makes him a solid choice for this prediction.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Charlie Taylor to Receive a Yellow Card

Charlie Taylor’s defensive responsibilities for Burnley will see him directly confront Bournemouth’s attacking threats, including the pacey and skillful wingers. Taylor’s necessity to engage in one-on-one battles and potentially tactical fouls to halt counter-attacks increases the likelihood of him receiving a yellow card, especially given the high stakes and intensity expected in this clash.

7. Assist Prediction: Ryan Christie to Register an Assist

Ryan Christie’s vision and delivery have been crucial for Bournemouth, making him a key player in creating goal-scoring opportunities. Against a Burnley defence that has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in wide areas, Christie’s ability to provide precise crosses and through balls makes him a strong candidate to register an assist. His role in set-pieces further amplifies his chances of contributing directly to a goal.

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Tyler Morris
Sports writer and analyst Tyler Morris has more than eight years of experience writing about a range of sports. He has considerable knowledge of football, and he has also covered US sports extensively, offering in-depth comments and analysis on the most recent events in these sports. Tyler is a respected specialist in the field since he utilises his knowledge to provide incisive analysis and opinion on the most recent sports events with a track record of successful tips.