Brann vs St Mirren Predictions

Brann vs St Mirren predictions ahead of Thursday’s Europa League qualifying clash. St Mirren’s last-gasp goal salvaged a draw against Brann, but they’ll need a significantly better performance away in Norway to advance to the UEFA Conference League play-off round. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Europa Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | Aug 15, 2024 at 6pm UK at Brann Stadion

Brann vs St Mirren Predictions

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Can St Mirren Defy the Odds in Brann’s Backyard?

St Mirren face an uphill battle as they head to Norway to take on Brann in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League qualifying tie. After a 1-1 draw in Paisley, where St Mirren snatched a late equaliser, the Scottish side will need to be at their very best if they are to secure progression to the play-off round. Brann, who dominated much of the first leg and looked the more composed side, will be keen to finish the job on home soil. The match promises to be a tense affair with both teams having much to play for.

Expected Line-ups and Tactical Considerations

Brann enter this match with confidence, having performed well in the first leg and carried that form into their domestic league, where they secured a 3-2 win against Strømsgodset. Brann’s manager, Eirik Horneland, is likely to stick with the same starting XI that performed so well in Paisley. The team’s strength lies in their midfield, orchestrated by Felix Horn Myhre, who not only controls the tempo but also contributes significantly in the final third. Brann’s 4-3-3 formation is designed to maximise their possession, which they often dominate, and create chances through patient build-up play.

Expected Brann Line-up:

• Goalkeeper: Mathias Dyngeland
• Defenders: Eivind Helland, Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen, Thore Pedersen, Ruben Kristiansen
• Midfielders: Felix Horn Myhre, Emil Kornvig, Sakarias Opsahl
• Forwards: Niklas Castro, Bård Finne, Magnus Warming

St Mirren, managed by Stephen Robinson, have shown resilience but have struggled with consistency. Their last outing, a 3-1 defeat to Aberdeen, exposed some defensive frailties that Brann will undoubtedly look to exploit. Robinson is likely to make some adjustments, potentially giving a start to Toyosi Olusanya, who has been in fine goal-scoring form. St Mirren’s expected formation, a flexible 3-5-2, is aimed at providing solidity at the back while allowing the wing-backs to push forward and support the attack.

Expected St Mirren Line-up:

• Goalkeeper: Ellery Balcombe
• Defenders: Marcus Fraser, Alex Iacovitti, Richard Taylor
• Midfielders: Shaun Rooney, Oisin Smyth, Dennis Adeniran, Caolan Boyd-Munce, Roland Idowu
• Forwards: Toyosi Olusanya, Jonah Ayunga

Tactical Battle and Key Areas of Focus

The key to this match could lie in the midfield battle, where Brann’s control of possession could be decisive. With Brann averaging 63.3% possession in their matches, St Mirren will need to be disciplined and well-organised to disrupt their rhythm. Felix Horn Myhre is the lynchpin for Brann, and if he is allowed to dictate the pace, St Mirren could find themselves chasing shadows for much of the game. Dennis Adeniran and Oisin Smyth, who will likely be tasked with shackling Myhre, must be at their tenacious best to prevent Brann from establishing control.

Another critical area will be the wide positions. Brann’s full-backs, particularly Thore Pedersen, are adept at pushing forward and delivering crosses, which could be a significant threat given St Mirren’s vulnerability to aerial balls. Marcus Fraser and Richard Taylor will have to be alert and communicate effectively to deal with these threats, especially with Bård Finne’s movement in the box.

Expected Goals Analysis

When assessing the expected goals (xG) for both teams, Brann clearly hold the upper hand. Brann have averaged 1.6 goals per game in the Eliteserien, a reflection of their ability to create high-quality chances consistently. Their xG in the first leg against St Mirren was indicative of their dominance, and they will be expected to maintain this level of performance at home.

St Mirren, on the other hand, have struggled in front of goal, particularly away from home. Their xG per game is lower, and while they have managed to score in recent games, their chances have often come from set-pieces or moments of individual brilliance rather than sustained pressure. If they are to find the net in Norway, it may well come from a counter-attack or a set-piece situation, where their physicality can be an advantage.

Critique of St Mirren and Managerial Shortcomings

St Mirren’s recent form raises serious questions about Stephen Robinson’s tactical acumen, particularly in high-pressure matches. The team’s performance against Aberdeen, where they were outclassed in nearly every department, highlighted significant weaknesses in their defensive organisation and ability to transition from defence to attack. Robinson’s persistence with a system that leaves them exposed on the flanks has been puzzling, especially given Brann’s strengths in these areas.

Moreover, Robinson’s in-game management has often been reactive rather than proactive. In the first leg, St Mirren were on the back foot for much of the match, and Robinson’s substitutions came too late to have any real impact. If St Mirren are to stand a chance in this tie, Robinson will need to make bold decisions and potentially sacrifice possession in favour of a more compact, counter-attacking approach.

Brann’s Eirik Horneland, in contrast, has shown a more nuanced understanding of his squad’s capabilities. His tactical setup in the first leg was spot on, allowing Brann to control the game while remaining solid at the back. Horneland’s ability to tweak his side’s approach depending on the state of the game could prove decisive once again.

Gameplay Prediction and Potential Dynamics

Given the context of the first leg and the strengths of both teams, this match is likely to see Brann dominate possession once more, with St Mirren adopting a more conservative approach. Brann’s high press, combined with their ability to control the tempo through Myhre, will likely pin St Mirren back in their own half for large periods. St Mirren’s best chances will come on the counter, where the pace of Olusanya could exploit the spaces left by Brann’s advancing full-backs.

The first 20 minutes will be crucial. If Brann can score early, it could open the floodgates, as St Mirren would then need to push forward, leaving themselves vulnerable to Brann’s counter-attacks. Conversely, if St Mirren can frustrate Brann and keep the game scoreless, the pressure could start to mount on the home side, leading to potential mistakes that St Mirren could capitalise on.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Brann to Win and Both Teams to Score

Brann’s superior form and home advantage make them favourites to win, but St Mirren have shown they can find the net, particularly through Olusanya. While Brann are likely to dominate, St Mirren’s threat on the counter or from set-pieces means they could still grab a goal. A Brann win with both teams scoring offers good value given the dynamics of the game.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Brann 3-1 St Mirren

Given Brann’s attacking prowess and St Mirren’s defensive frailties, a 3-1 scoreline in favour of the home side seems likely. Brann’s ability to control possession and create chances should see them score multiple goals, while St Mirren’s potential to score on the break or from a set-piece could see them grab a consolation goal.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Bård Finne to Score Anytime

Bård Finne has been a consistent threat for Brann this season, and his movement in the box makes him a prime candidate to score. With Brann expected to create numerous chances, Finne’s ability to get on the end of crosses or through balls should see him find the net.

4. First Half Result: Brann to Lead at Half Time

Brann are likely to come out strong, looking to assert their dominance early. Their superior possession play and home advantage suggest they will take the lead before the break, putting St Mirren on the back foot from the outset.

5. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target - Brann Over 5.5

Brann have averaged five shots on target per game this season, and with their expected dominance in possession, they are likely to surpass this figure. St Mirren’s defensive vulnerabilities mean that Brann should be able to test the goalkeeper regularly, making this a strong market to back.

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