Benfica vs Casa Pia Predictions

Benfica vs Casa Pia Predictions for this Primeira Liga clash. Benfica aim to rebound from their Primeira Liga opening-day defeat to Famalicão as they host Casa Pia at Estádio da Luz on Saturday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Ligue 1 | Aug 17, 2024 at 8:30pm UK at Estadio Universitario de Lisboa

Benfica vs Casa Pia Predictions

Will Benfica Regain Their Form Against Casa Pia After a Shaky Start?

Benfica are set to host Casa Pia at the Estadio da Luz on Saturday, as both teams look to secure their first win of the 2024-25 Primeira Liga campaign. After a surprising opening-day defeat to Famalicao, Roger Schmidt’s men are under pressure to deliver a strong performance. Casa Pia, who also lost their first match of the season, will aim to frustrate the Eagles and build on their commendable away form from last season.

Benfica’s Early Struggles and Need for a Response

Benfica’s start to the season has been less than ideal. Their 2-0 loss to Famalicao was a stark reminder that last season’s disappointments could carry over into the new campaign if improvements aren’t made swiftly. Schmidt’s side appeared disjointed and lacked the cutting edge that saw them finish second last season, just behind champions Sporting Lisbon. The defeat also highlighted the ongoing issues in Benfica’s squad, particularly in the absence of key figures like Nicolas Otamendi and Joao Neves, whose leadership and influence were sorely missed.

Despite this setback, Benfica’s form at Estadio da Luz remains formidable. They have won their last 11 home league games, a streak that dates back to the latter part of the previous season. This home dominance has been a cornerstone of Schmidt’s tenure, and the German manager will be counting on this fortress-like form to get the season back on track. However, the challenge lies in overcoming the mental block that seems to have set in following consecutive losses to Famalicao and a somewhat uninspired end to last season.

Benfica’s performance against Famalicao was characterised by a lack of creativity and poor finishing. They managed just two shots on target from 12 attempts, a stark contrast to their usual attacking efficiency. With the likes of Ángel Di María and Vangelis Pavlidis expected to start against Casa Pia, Schmidt will be hoping for a significant improvement in the final third. The Argentine veteran Di María, who made a brief but impactful cameo in the last match, could be pivotal in unlocking Casa Pia’s defence.

Defensively, Benfica were uncharacteristically vulnerable against Famalicao, conceding two avoidable goals. The return of Otamendi will be crucial in shoring up a backline that looked shaky without its leader. Schmidt might also consider tactical adjustments, possibly involving Renato Sanches in midfield, to regain control in the centre of the park, an area where Benfica were outplayed last time out.

Casa Pia’s Ambitions and Potential for Upset

Casa Pia’s return to the Primeira Liga has been a story of resilience and gradual progress. After finishing ninth last season, they have set their sights on consolidating their position in the top flight. Under the new management of Joao Pereira, the youngest head coach in Portugal's top division, Casa Pia are undergoing a period of transition. Pereira’s task is to integrate new signings while maintaining the competitive edge that saw Casa Pia earn a draw against Benfica in their last visit to the Estadio da Luz.

However, their opening-day defeat to Boavista highlighted some of the challenges that lie ahead. Casa Pia were wasteful in front of goal, managing 15 shots but failing to find the back of the net. The absence of key forwards from last season, including Clayton and Felippe Cardoso, has left a significant gap in their attacking options. Pereira’s decision to deploy Pablo Roberto as a false nine against Boavista backfired, and he will need to find a more effective solution against Benfica.

Casa Pia’s strength lies in their structured defensive approach and their ability to absorb pressure, as evidenced by their 67% possession in the last match. Their defensive solidity was a hallmark of their performances last season, and they will need to be at their best to withstand Benfica’s expected onslaught. The inclusion of more natural forwards like Samu Obeng or Max Svensson, who made an impact as a substitute against Boavista, could provide the cutting edge that was missing in their opener.

While Casa Pia’s away form last season was respectable, securing five draws on the road, their inability to convert these into victories is a concern. Their defensive resilience will be tested to the fullest against a Benfica side desperate for goals and a win. However, if Casa Pia can frustrate the hosts and exploit any lingering uncertainty in Benfica’s defence, they could pull off a surprise result.

Key Areas of the Field and Potential Duels

The midfield battle will likely be the focal point of this encounter. Benfica’s Orkun Kökçü and Florentino Luís will be tasked with controlling the tempo and breaking down Casa Pia’s defensive block. Kökçü’s ability to pick out incisive passes and Florentino’s defensive work rate will be crucial in ensuring Benfica can dictate the game. On the other side, Casa Pia’s midfield trio, potentially including Beni Mukendi and Miguel Sousa, will need to disrupt Benfica’s rhythm and transition quickly to catch the hosts off guard.

One of the key duels could be between Benfica’s Di María and Casa Pia’s full-back Leonardo Lelo. Di María, known for his dribbling and crossing, will look to create opportunities from the right flank, while Lelo’s defensive duties will involve limiting the Argentine’s influence. If Di María can get the better of Lelo, it could spell trouble for Casa Pia, as his delivery into the box will be a constant threat to their goal.

In defence, the battle between Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis and Casa Pia’s center-backs João Goulart and Nermin Zolotic will be crucial. Pavlidis, who has been brought in to provide the goals that Benfica were missing against Famalicao, will need to be sharp and clinical. Goulart and Zolotic, who were solid despite the defeat to Boavista, will have their work cut out in keeping Pavlidis quiet.

Expected Gameplay and Tactical Approaches

Benfica are expected to dominate possession, as they did against Famalicao, but this time with a greater emphasis on breaking down Casa Pia’s deep defensive block. Schmidt will likely encourage his full-backs, Bah and Carreras, to push forward and stretch the play, providing width that will allow Di María and João Mário to operate in the half-spaces. The key for Benfica will be patience and precision in the final third, avoiding the frustration that led to poor decision-making in their last match.

Casa Pia, on the other hand, are likely to adopt a counter-attacking strategy. With Benfica expected to commit players forward, there will be opportunities for Casa Pia to exploit the space left behind. Their focus will be on staying compact, minimising errors, and launching quick transitions when they regain possession. Pereira’s men will need to be clinical with any chances that come their way, as they are unlikely to get many against a Benfica side determined to bounce back.

Critique of Benfica’s Managerial Approach

Roger Schmidt’s managerial approach has come under scrutiny following the poor start to the season. While his tenure at Benfica has been largely successful, with a strong finish last season, the cracks are beginning to show. His decision-making, particularly in team selection and tactical adjustments, has been questionable. The reliance on aging players like Di María, while understandable given their experience, also raises concerns about the lack of youthful dynamism in the squad.

Schmidt’s inability to adapt to the challenges posed by teams like Famalicao, who were well-organized and disciplined, suggests a rigidity in his tactics. This inflexibility could become a significant problem if Benfica continue to struggle against well-drilled opponents. Furthermore, his preference for a high defensive line without the necessary speed in defence leaves Benfica vulnerable to counter-attacks, a weakness that Casa Pia might exploit if Schmidt doesn’t address it.

Betting Angles and Potential Trends

Considering the current form and statistics, one of the key betting angles for this match is the likelihood of a Benfica win with a clean sheet. Despite their struggles, Benfica’s home form is exceptional, and Casa Pia’s lack of cutting edge up front makes this a plausible outcome. The odds for Benfica to win without conceding could offer good value, especially given their defensive record at Estadio da Luz.

Another angle to explore is the total number of corners. Benfica averaged seven corners in their opening game, and with their expected dominance in possession and territory, a high number of corners seems likely. A bet on over 9.5 corners in the match could be worth considering.

Predictions

Best Bet: Benfica to Win with a Clean Sheet

Given Benfica’s strong home record and Casa Pia’s struggles in front of goal, a victory for the hosts without conceding seems the most likely outcome. Benfica will be desperate to respond to their opening-day loss, and with the return of key players like Otamendi, their defence should be more solid. Casa Pia’s attack, which lacked cohesion and sharpness against Boavista, is unlikely to trouble Benfica significantly.

Correct Score Prediction: Benfica 2-0 Casa Pia

A 2-0 scoreline aligns with the expectation of a controlled performance from Benfica. While they may not be firing on all cylinders just yet, the quality in their squad should be enough to secure a comfortable win. Casa Pia’s defensive resilience might keep the scoreline respectable, but Benfica’s superior firepower should see them through.

Goalscorer Prediction: Vangelis Pavlidis to Score Anytime

Vangelis Pavlidis, who was brought in to bolster Benfica’s attack, is a strong candidate to get on the scoresheet. With Di María and João Mário providing the service, Pavlidis will have opportunities to open his account for the season. His positioning and finishing ability make him a good bet to find the back of the net.

Team to Score First: Benfica

Given their need for a fast start and their home advantage, Benfica are likely to break the deadlock. Casa Pia’s defensive approach will likely see them sit deep, but Benfica’s quality should eventually tell, making them the favourites to score first.

Innovative Market: Over 9.5 Corners

Benfica’s attacking intent and dominance in possession are likely to result in numerous corners. With their wide players and full-backs expected to play a significant role in the attack, over 9.5 corners in the match seems a reasonable bet.ks.

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