Basel vs Fiorentina Predictions

Basel vs Fiorentina predictions for Thursday’s Europa Conference League semi-final. Fiorentina will look to make amends and conquer the final when they visit Basel. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Basel vs Fiorentina
Match Live Thursday, 18th May at 8:00 pm In:

Basel vs Fiorentina Predictions

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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

Fiorentina’s Uphill Battle in Europa Conference League Semi-Final

Key Stats
– Fiorentina has seen over 3.5 goals in three of their last four away matches.
– Basel is winless in their last five home games, conceding 11 goals in the process.
– Arthur Cabral has scored seven goals in his last nine Conference League matches.

FC Basel holds a narrow advantage as they host Fiorentina at St Jakob-Park for the Europa Conference League semi-final second leg. Both teams have had their struggles lately, particularly in defense, which could lead to a goal-heavy match.

Basel’s First Leg Triumph

In their first encounter, Basel managed a 2-1 victory at Stadio Artemio Franchi, overcoming an initial deficit with second-half goals from Andy Diouf and Zeki Amdouni. Despite this surprising result, Basel have faced challenges in recent weeks, losing two of their last three matches and suffering a crushing 6-1 defeat to St Gallen in a Super League fixture.

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Basel’s home record is even more concerning, with no wins in their last five home games, during which they’ve conceded 11 goals. Fiorentina, on the other hand, will be disappointed after squandering their lead in the first leg. After Arthur Cabral scored midway through the first half, Fiorentina conceded two goals in the second half, including a last-minute winner.

Fiorentina’s Recent Struggles

The Italian side’s recent form has been underwhelming, with only one win in their last four matches across all competitions. However, they secured a 2-0 victory over Udinese in a recent Serie A match. Despite their hopes for a turnaround, Fiorentina have been winless in their last three away games, conceding seven goals in the process.

Bookies’ Perspectives

Despite their first-leg loss, Fiorentina are favoured by bookmakers at 4/5 with most firms. Basel, on the other hand, are seen as an underdog at 15/4 with bet365, while BetVictor offers odds of 14/5 for a draw.

Head-to-Head Record

Basel have never lost to Fiorentina in their three previous encounters, with two wins and a draw. In their 2015-16 Europa League meeting, the Swiss side won 2-1 in Florence before a 2-2 draw at St Jakob-Park.

Key Players to Watch

Zeki Amdouni, who scored the winning goal in the first leg, is a player to keep an eye on for Basel. He has netted six times in his last five Conference League appearances and is priced at 29/10. Arthur Cabral, who scored Fiorentina’s only goal in the first leg, will be expected to provide firepower in attack. The striker has seven goals in his last nine Conference League matches and is priced at 7/5 by bet365 to score.

Notable Stats and Trends

Fiorentina have seen over 3.5 goals in three of their last four away matches, and a similar outcome is priced at 39/20 by BetVictor. All three previous meetings between the teams have produced over 2.5 goals, valued at 7/10 by bet365. Basel’s last three matches have seen more goals scored in the second half, a trend that could continue in their upcoming clash at 11/10 with William Hill. Both teams are also tipped to score in the second half at 2/1 with William Hill.

Fiorentina’s Attack to Overcome Basel’s Defensive Woes

Based on the analysis, we predict a bet builder treble offered by William Hill at 4/1, consisting of Fiorentina to win, Basel to have the most cards, and Fiorentina to have the most corners within the 90 minutes. 

FC Basel’s Struggles

Basel’s defensive performance has been their Achilles heel, conceding 18 goals and keeping only two clean sheets. Their leaky backline has struggled, with the team conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. Moreover, Basel’s home record has been less than impressive, with the team winless in their last five home games, conceding 11 goals in those five matches. This poor form, combined with an average of 2.4 yellow cards per game, suggests that Basel might end up with the most cards in the upcoming match.

Fiorentina’s Attacking Prowess

On the other hand, Fiorentina boasts an impressive attacking record, ranking second out of 40 teams in the competition. Scoring 33 goals in 13 matches, the Italian side has been a force to be reckoned with on the offensive front. Their attacking prowess is further highlighted by an average of 18 shots per game, leading to 7.1 corners per game. This stat suggests that Fiorentina could likely have the most corners in the match.

Prediction: Fiorentina’s Comeback Victory
Considering Fiorentina’s attacking firepower and Basel’s defensive struggles, it seems plausible that Fiorentina will emerge victorious in the second leg. With Basel’s tendency to pick up yellow cards and Fiorentina’s propensity to win corners, a bet builder treble offered by William Hill at 4/1, comprising Fiorentina to win, Basel most cards, and Fiorentina most corners (90 minutes), appears to be a great betting opportunity. 

Taking into account what was said, a 3-1 victory for Fiorentina is a likely outcome and looks valuable in the correct score market. Fiorentina’s attack has proven effective, with Cabral scoring seven goals in his last nine Conference League appearances. Coupled with Basel’s recent struggles in defence, this scoreline seems plausible.

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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!