Bahia vs Gremio Predictions

Bahia vs Gremio predictions for the first leg of the quarter-final clash in the Copa do Brasil on Wednesday. Who will get an advantage? Read on for all our free betting tips and predictions.

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Bahia vs Gremio Predictions

Copa Do Brasil: High Stakes Showdown as Bahia Clash with Gremio

Key Stats
– Late Drama: Gremio’s recent victory over Bahia was decided by a goal in the fifth minute of injury time, highlighting the thrill and unpredictability that can be expected in this upcoming encounter.
– Formidable Frontmen: Despite their contrasting league positions, both teams boast impressive attacking statistics, with Gremio scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game, while Bahia is not far behind with 1.1.
– Defensive Dilemmas: Both teams have had their defensive frailties exposed this season, with Bahia conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, and Gremio not faring much better, letting in 1.4 per game on average.

On Wednesday, in the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals, Bahia welcome Gremio to their home ground. This encounter comes hot on the heels of their recent clash in the Brasileiro where Gremio had the upper hand with a 2-1 victory at the Fonte Nova Arena. Bahia, who are yet to claim Brazil’s premier domestic cup, are eager to turn the tables on Gremio and progress to the semi-finals.

Setting the Stage

Bahia bounced back to Brazil’s elite division after a successful stint in Serie B, finishing third and earning promotion on their first attempt. However, their journey in the current season has been turbulent, with their defeat to Gremio leaving them teetering above the relegation zone by a meagre point.

Renato Paiva, the ex-Independiente del Valle head coach, was appointed at the helm of Bahia at the start of 2023. The manager would have been content with a draw against Gremio, but the late heroics of Gustavo Martins dashed those hopes.


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Despite the blow, the Bahia squad might appreciate the diversion provided by the Copa do Brasil in the middle of the week. Their advancement to this stage, achieved by edging past Santos via penalties, has exposed them to valuable lessons. The prospect of capturing the trophy for the first time is a tantalising prospect for the club.

A Tale of Two Teams

Conversely, Gremio boasts a rich history in the Copa do Brasil, having lifted the trophy five times. Only Cruzeiro have had more success in this competition. Gremio shares some parallels with Bahia – they too earned a promotion last season, finishing second in Serie B after a rare relegation in 2021.

The club is now under the stewardship of Renato Gaucho, a figure steeped in Gremio’s history and currently enjoying his fourth spell as their manager. Under Gaucho’s tutelage, Gremio have adapted well to top-tier football. Their current form, highlighted by six wins in seven league games, has propelled them to the second spot in Serie A. Gaucho, who has experienced Copa Libertadores glory as a player and manager with Gremio, will be adamant about leaving Bahia with a favourable result, knowing that they have the advantage of playing the return leg at home.

Battle of the Injured

Both teams have injury troubles ahead of this crucial tie. Bahia may miss Danilo Fernandes, David Duarte, Biel, Vitor Jacare, Matheus Bahia, Yago Felipe, and Raul Gustavo, all of whom are doubtful for the midweek game. Despite these setbacks, Paiva could reintroduce Ademir, who was a substitute during the weekend defeat, to his starting XI. Kayky, the club’s standout performer, will likely flank Ademir.

Gremio, on the other hand, will probably make the trip without Everton Galdino, Fabio da Silva, Pepe, Jhonata Robert, and Pedro Geromel, who are all nursing injuries. However, Gaucho could reestablish Ferreira to the lineup, now recovered from recent knee problems, forming an intimidating attacking trio with Franco Cristaldo and former Barcelona striker Luis Suarez.

A Tactical Outlook

Given the competitive nature of their recent league encounter, a drawn outcome might be more acceptable to Gremio. They have the luxury of a second leg at home and may be more comfortable playing for a draw. However, considering the potential of both teams to find the back of the net, it’s highly probable that the match will feature goals.

On the other hand, Bahia are facing a daunting task. They need a home victory to counterbalance Gremio’s advantage in the second leg. Thus, it is likely that we will see an aggressive, attacking-minded Bahia, focusing on exploiting Gremio’s defensive weaknesses, especially during set pieces, where Gremio have been vulnerable.

Renato Paiva’s squad primarily uses a 4-3-3 formation, putting a lot of faith in the attacking prowess of their wingers and fullbacks. They will need their wide players to deliver quality crosses into the box for the likes of Ademir and Kayky.

Gremio, under Gaucho’s watch, generally operates in a similar formation but tends to be more flexible, sometimes switching to a 4-4-2 to provide additional cover in the midfield. Gaucho’s men could play a conservative game, aiming to keep possession and suffocate Bahia’s offence while waiting for opportune moments to strike on the counter-attack.

Players to Watch

For Bahia, much will rely on Kayky, who has been a revelation this season. The youngster’s performance has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise difficult campaign. His blistering speed, coupled with an excellent technical skillset, can cause problems for Gremio’s defenders.

Gremio’s most notable threat could come from Luis Suarez. Despite being in the twilight of his career, the Uruguayan international remains a lethal finisher. His experience and leadership could prove vital for Gremio in this high-stakes tie. Additionally, Ferreira’s return from injury offers Gaucho more attacking options.

The Verdict

While Gremio has the edge due to their recent victory and home advantage in the second leg, Bahia have shown enough resilience to suggest that they are not ready to bow out just yet. The tie seems finely balanced, and while Gremio may be the favourites, it would be unwise to rule out Bahia completely. So backing a draw with both teams scoring looks a decent bet for this match. If you like to venture yourself in the correct score market, my suggestion would be a 1-1 draw.

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!