Bahia vs Cuiaba predictions for this Brazilian Serie A clash. Bahia, unbeaten at Arena Fonte Nova this season, aim to continue their streak against struggling Cuiaba in Saturday’s Brasileiro match. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jul 13, 2024 at 8pm UK at Arena Fonte Nova
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Bahia vs Cuiaba Predictions
Can Bahia Maintain Their Perfect Home Record Against a Resolute Cuiabá?
Key Stats
– Bahia have won all seven of their home games this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding just three.
– Cuiabá have drawn three of their last four away matches, including against league leaders Flamengo.
– Everaldo is Bahia’s top scorer with six goals this season, poised to add to his tally against Cuiabá.
As Bahia aim to extend their perfect home record in the Brasileiro, they face the challenge of a determined Cuiabá side. The visitors, battling relegation, have shown a knack for securing draws under their manager, Petit. This upcoming clash at Arena Fonte Nova could have significant implications for both teams’ seasons.
Bahia’s Home Fortress
Bahia have been formidable at Arena Fonte Nova, winning all seven of their home games this season. This impressive form is complemented by a strong defensive record, conceding only three goals while scoring 13. Their solid home performances have been crucial in keeping them near the top of the table, with a chance to leapfrog Flamengo if results go their way. However, their form on the road has been less consistent, with only two wins in nine away matches.
Rogerio Ceni’s side will be buoyed by their recent away win at Athletico Paranaense, which ended a five-match winless streak on the road. Now back on home turf, Bahia will be eager to secure an eighth consecutive victory in front of their supporters.
Cuiabá’s Resilience
Cuiabá, managed by Petit, have proven difficult to beat, losing just one of their last seven matches. Despite their resilience, they have struggled to turn draws into wins, leaving them perilously close to the relegation zone. Their recent draw against league leaders Flamengo will give them confidence heading into this fixture.
The visitors have shown they can be a tough nut to crack, particularly on the road. They have avoided defeat in their last three away games, including draws against Corinthians and Flamengo. Cuiabá’s ability to frustrate higher-ranked teams could be pivotal in this encounter.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches
Bahia’s Expected Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Felipe
- Defenders: Gilberto, Xavier, Kanu, Juba
- Midfielders: De Pena, Rezende, Alexandre
- Forwards: Cauly, Biel, Everaldo
Cuiabá’s Expected Lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Walter
- Defenders: Railan, Marllon, Empereur, Ramon
- Midfielders: Cafu, Sobral, Mineiro, Denilson, Clayson
- Forward: Pitta
Bahia’s attacking setup relies heavily on their forwards Biel and Everaldo, who have scored ten goals between them this season. Their midfield trio of De Pena, Rezende, and Alexandre are crucial in maintaining possession and creating chances. Defensively, they are anchored by the experienced Gilberto and the promising Xavier.
Cuiabá’s strategy revolves around a solid defensive foundation and quick counter-attacks. Pitta and Clayson lead the line, supported by a hardworking midfield. The return of key players like Railan and Augusto from suspension will bolster their chances.
Key Areas of the Field
The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the outcome of this match. Bahia’s trio of De Pena, Rezende, and Alexandre will look to dominate possession and supply their forwards with quality chances. Meanwhile, Cuiabá’s midfield, led by Sobral and Mineiro, must disrupt Bahia’s rhythm and launch quick counters.
In defence, Bahia’s ability to handle the physical presence of Pitta and the pace of Clayson will be vital. For Cuiabá, their defence, led by Marllon and Empereur, must remain compact and disciplined to withstand Bahia’s attacking onslaught.
Gameplay Dynamics
Bahia are likely to dominate possession and press high up the pitch, seeking to exploit any gaps in Cuiabá’s defence. Their full-backs, Gilberto and Juba, will be key in providing width and delivering crosses into the box. Everaldo’s clinical finishing and Biel’s pace will be central to their attacking threat.
Cuiabá, on the other hand, will adopt a more cautious approach. They will sit deep, soak up pressure, and look to hit Bahia on the break. Pitta’s aerial prowess and Clayson’s speed will be their main offensive weapons. Set pieces could also be an avenue for Cuiabá, given Bahia’s occasional vulnerability to high balls.
Managerial Analysis
Rogerio Ceni has instilled a disciplined and attacking philosophy in Bahia. His emphasis on possession and high pressing has paid dividends at home, although their away form remains a concern. Ceni’s tactical acumen will be tested against a well-organised Cuiabá side.
Petit, despite his team’s struggles, has managed to make Cuiabá difficult to beat. His pragmatic approach has garnered important points against top teams, but the lack of victories is a concern. Petit needs to find a balance between solidity and attacking threat to steer his team clear of relegation.
Expected Goals Analysis
Bahia have averaged 1.6 goals per game this season, highlighting their offensive capabilities. They create a high number of chances, averaging 13.3 shots per game, with 4.9 on target. Their xG (expected goals) is indicative of a team that creates quality scoring opportunities.
Cuiabá, in contrast, have averaged 1.1 goals per game, reflecting their struggles in front of goal. They generate fewer chances, with 10.3 shots per game and 3.6 on target. Their xG is lower, suggesting a need for more creativity and clinical finishing.
Betting Angles and Predictions
Best Bet: Bahia to Win
Given Bahia’s impeccable home record and Cuiabá’s difficulties in securing victories, a home win seems the most plausible outcome. Bahia’s offensive firepower, combined with their solid defence, should see them through against a resilient but limited Cuiabá side.
Correct Score Prediction: Bahia 2-0 Cuiabá
Bahia’s ability to score at home, coupled with Cuiabá’s struggles in attack, points towards a comfortable win for the hosts. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Bahia’s strength and Cuiabá’s defensive organisation.
Goalscorer Prediction: Everaldo to Score
Everaldo, with six goals to his name, is a constant threat in front of goal. His ability to find space and finish chances makes him a prime candidate to score against Cuiabá.
Corner Prediction: Bahia to Win More Corners
Bahia’s attacking style should see them earn more corners, averaging 4.3 per game compared to Cuiabá’s 3.3. The home side’s dominance in possession and territorial advantage will likely lead to more corner opportunities.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Shots on Target Over 8.5
With Bahia averaging 4.9 shots on target per game and Cuiabá managing 3.6, the combined total is likely to exceed 8.5. Both teams’ attacking intent and the need for points should ensure a high number of shots on target.
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