Austria vs Turkey predictions for this Euro 2024 clash. After eventful group-stage finales, Euro 2024 dark horses Austria and Turkey meet in Leipzig on Tuesday evening for the last 16. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Round of 16 – Jul 2, 2024 at 8pm UK at Red Bull Arena
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Austria vs Turkey Predictions
Key Stats
– Austria have won 14 of their last 19 matches, losing only twice.
– Turkey have lost four of their seven matches in 2024 despite progressing to this round.
– Austria’s Marcel Sabitzer has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight international appearances.
Can Austria Maintain Their Momentum Against Turkey in the Euro 2024 Knockouts?
Austria and Turkey, having successfully navigated the group stages of Euro 2024, are set to face off in the Round of 16 in Leipzig. This high-stakes match, with a quarter-final spot on the line, promises to be a thrilling encounter between two teams with contrasting styles and fortunes.
Match Preview
Austria’s journey to the knockout stages has been nothing short of remarkable. After being placed in a challenging group with the Netherlands and France, Ralf Rangnick’s side emerged victorious, topping Group D. Their campaign was highlighted by a dramatic 3-2 win over the Netherlands, with captain Marcel Sabitzer scoring the decisive goal. This triumph was a testament to Austria’s resilience and tactical acumen, especially after recovering from an initial loss to France.
Historically, Austria have struggled in major tournaments, but this squad has shown a newfound resolve and tactical sophistication under Rangnick. They have won 14 of their last 19 matches, losing only twice, a record that places them among Europe’s most in-form teams. Their recent thrashing of Turkey in a friendly, where they won 6-1, further boosts their confidence heading into this clash.
Turkey, on the other hand, have had a mixed tournament so far. They secured their place in the last 16 with a last-gasp 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, thanks to Cenk Tosun’s stoppage-time goal. Despite this victory, their group stage performance has been inconsistent, marked by a heavy defeat to Portugal and a laboured win over Georgia. Vincenzo Montella’s young squad has shown potential but also vulnerability, particularly in defence.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Austria will miss Patrick Wimmer due to suspension, potentially paving the way for Konrad Laimer or Christoph Baumgartner to start. Rangnick faces a decision between Marko Arnautovic and Michael Gregoritsch to lead the attack. Defensively, any two from Max Wober, Kevin Danso, Gernot Trauner, and Philipp Lienhart could start, ensuring a solid backline.
Austria’s probable lineup:
Pentz; Posch, Danso, Lienhart, Mwene; Seiwald, Grillitsch; Schmid, Baumgartner, Sabitzer; Arnautovic
Turkey are without their captain Hakan Calhanoglu and centre-back Samet Akaydin due to suspension. Abdulkerim Bardakci is likely to return in defence, partnering Merih Demiral. Midfield adjustments will be necessary, with Okay Yokuslu, Kaan Ayhan, and Orkun Kokcu competing to fill Calhanoglu’s role. Goalkeeper Mert Gunok remains a doubt due to injury.
Turkey’s probable lineup:
Gunok; Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Yuksek, Yokuslu; Kahveci, Guler, Yildiz; Yilmaz
Tactical Analysis
Austria’s success under Rangnick has been driven by a high-energy, pressing style. Their ability to disrupt the opposition’s build-up play and create quick transitions has been key. Marcel Sabitzer, now deployed on the left wing, has been instrumental, using his pressing ability and finishing prowess to great effect. Austria’s midfield, led by Baumgartner and Grillitsch, has been adept at controlling the tempo and distributing the ball efficiently.
Turkey, while talented, have shown defensive frailties. Their midfield, missing the creativity and leadership of Calhanoglu, will need to step up. The young attackers, including Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, bring flair and unpredictability, but the lack of experience could be a handicap against Austria’s well-drilled defence. Montella’s side will need to be defensively disciplined and exploit counter-attacking opportunities.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Austria have employed a high-pressing, aggressive strategy under Ralf Rangnick. This approach has been instrumental in their success in Euro 2024. Their pressing game, inspired by Red Bull’s football philosophy, focuses on winning the ball high up the pitch and quickly transitioning into attack. Marcel Sabitzer, shifted to a left-wing role, exemplifies this strategy. His pressing against opposition right-backs disrupts their build-up, allowing Austria to regain possession in dangerous areas. This tactic was evident in their 3-2 victory over the Netherlands, where Sabitzer’s relentless pressing and quick movement led to critical turnovers.
Defensively, Austria rely on a solid backline, often featuring Max Wober, Kevin Danso, Gernot Trauner, and Philipp Lienhart. This quartet provides stability and physical presence. Their defensive strategy involves compact organisation and quick recovery, minimising spaces for opponents to exploit. However, Austria’s defence is not impregnable; they have conceded in each of their group-stage matches, indicating vulnerabilities, especially against high-quality attacking sides like France.
Turkey, under Vincenzo Montella, have adopted a more balanced approach. Offensively, they rely on quick transitions and the creativity of players like Hakan Calhanoglu and Arda Guler. In their 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, Turkey’s quick counter-attacks and Calhanoglu’s ability to strike from distance were pivotal. However, with Calhanoglu suspended, Turkey’s offensive threat is significantly diminished.
Defensively, Turkey have struggled with consistency. Their backline, typically comprising Merih Demiral and Abdulkerim Bardakci, has shown frailties. Turkey’s defensive lapses were evident in their 3-0 loss to Portugal, where positional errors and lack of coordination led to conceding multiple goals. Montella’s youthful squad, while talented, often lack the defensive discipline needed at this level, making them susceptible to high-pressing teams like Austria.
Individual Performances of Key Players
Marcel Sabitzer has been Austria’s standout performer. His versatility allows him to contribute both offensively and defensively. With a goal and two assists in the group stages, Sabitzer’s impact has been significant. His ability to press, coupled with his finishing skills, makes him a crucial player for Austria.
Christoph Baumgartner has also been vital for Austria, directly involved in nine goals in his last eight international appearances. His vision and creativity in midfield provide Austria with the necessary spark to break down defences.
For Turkey, Arda Guler has been a revelation. Despite his young age, Guler’s dribbling and playmaking abilities have been impressive. His goal against the Czech Republic showcased his potential. However, the absence of Hakan Calhanoglu, a key playmaker, puts additional pressure on Guler to deliver.
Cenk Tosun, Turkey’s experienced striker, has been crucial, particularly with his last-minute winner against the Czech Republic. His positioning and finishing skills make him a constant threat in the box, but he will need more support from his teammates to break down Austria’s defence.
Impact of Management on Style of Play
Ralf Rangnick’s influence on Austria cannot be overstated. His emphasis on high pressing and quick transitions has transformed Austria into one of the most cohesive teams in the tournament. Rangnick’s tactical acumen and ability to adapt have been key to Austria’s success. His decision to utilise Sabitzer on the left wing, where he can drift inside and exploit spaces, has been a masterstroke.
Conversely, Vincenzo Montella’s tenure with Turkey has been mixed. While his focus on youth development is commendable, the lack of defensive organisation remains a glaring issue. Montella’s tactical decisions, particularly in defensive setups, have often backfired, as seen in their heavy defeat to Portugal. His inability to instill defensive discipline and the over-reliance on individual brilliance have been detrimental.
Expected Goals Analysis
Austria have an expected goals (xG) of 1.8 per game, reflecting their attacking prowess. Their ability to create high-quality chances, primarily through pressing and quick transitions, has been evident. Austria’s xG aligns well with their actual goals scored, underscoring their efficiency in front of goal.
Turkey’s expected goals are slightly lower at 1.4 per game. This lower figure reflects their struggle to create clear-cut chances consistently. With Calhanoglu absent, Turkey’s xG might further decline, given his role in generating scoring opportunities.
Comparison Between Teams
Tactically, Austria’s high pressing and organised defence give them an edge over Turkey. Austria’s cohesion and ability to execute Rangnick’s tactical plan make them formidable. In contrast, Turkey’s lack of defensive discipline and over-reliance on individual moments of brilliance, such as Guler’s dribbling or Tosun’s finishing, highlight their inconsistency.
In terms of player performances, Austria’s key players, like Sabitzer and Baumgartner, have been more impactful and consistent. Turkey’s young talents, while promising, have not displayed the same level of consistency and discipline.
Suggestions for Improvement
For Austria, improving defensive solidity should be a priority. While their pressing game is effective, ensuring better coordination in the backline to avoid conceding soft goals is crucial. Integrating a more robust defensive midfield presence could help shield the defence better.
Turkey need to address their defensive vulnerabilities urgently. Montella must instill greater discipline and organisation within the backline. Additionally, finding a reliable creative outlet in Calhanoglu’s absence is essential. Enhancing team cohesion and reducing reliance on individual brilliance can make Turkey more formidable.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Teams
Austria’s strengths lie in their tactical discipline, cohesive pressing game, and the individual brilliance of players like Sabitzer and Baumgartner. Their primary weakness is the occasional defensive lapse, which better-organised teams could exploit.
Turkey’s strengths include their youthful exuberance and the individual talents of players like Guler and Tosun. However, their glaring weakness is defensive inconsistency. Montella’s failure to establish a solid defensive framework has repeatedly cost them, making them vulnerable against high-pressing teams.
Heavy Criticism of Turkey
Turkey’s performance under Vincenzo Montella has been underwhelming, to say the least. While their young talents offer promise, the team’s defensive frailties are a direct result of Montella’s inadequate tactical planning. His inability to create a cohesive defensive unit has left Turkey exposed time and again.
The reliance on individual moments of brilliance rather than structured team play highlights a fundamental flaw in his management approach. This lack of organisation is inexcusable at this level and reflects poorly on Montella’s capabilities as a manager. If Turkey are to progress and compete effectively, a significant overhaul in their defensive strategy is imperative.
Predictions
- Best Bet: Austria to Win
Austria have demonstrated exceptional form in Euro 2024, finishing top of a tough group that included the Netherlands and France. Under the management of Ralf Rangnick, they have become one of Europe’s most organised and resilient teams. Their high-energy pressing game has been particularly effective, disrupting opponents and creating numerous scoring opportunities.
In contrast, Turkey have shown inconsistency, especially in defence, where they have been prone to lapses. Austria’s recent 6-1 victory over Turkey in a friendly further underscores their superiority. Given Austria’s tactical discipline and current form, they are well-positioned to win this knockout clash, making this the most confident bet for the match.
- Correct Score Prediction: Austria 3-1 Turkey
Given Austria’s attacking capabilities and Turkey’s defensive vulnerabilities, a high-scoring match seems likely. Austria have averaged 2 goals per game in the tournament, while Turkey have conceded 1.7 goals per game.
Austria’s front line, featuring players like Marcel Sabitzer and Marko Arnautovic, has been prolific, while Turkey’s defence has struggled to maintain solidity, particularly against stronger opposition. Moreover, Austria’s pressing game is likely to force errors from Turkey’s backline, leading to more scoring opportunities. Thus, a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Austria is a plausible outcome, reflecting their offensive potency and Turkey’s defensive fragility.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer has been a standout performer for Austria, playing a pivotal role in their attacking setup. His move to a more advanced position on the left wing has allowed him to exploit spaces and get into goal-scoring positions. Sabitzer’s ability to press high, coupled with his sharp finishing, makes him a significant threat.
He has already shown his scoring touch in the tournament, and his recent form suggests he is likely to find the back of the net again. Considering Turkey’s defensive struggles, Sabitzer’s chances of scoring are enhanced, making him a solid pick to score at least once in this match.
- Corner Prediction: Austria to Win More Corners
Austria’s attacking style and tendency to press high up the pitch often result in winning more corners. They average 3.7 corners per game, a reflection of their sustained offensive pressure. Turkey, while capable of attacking, have shown defensive vulnerabilities, which Austria can exploit.
The game’s flow is expected to see Austria pushing forward frequently, leading to more corner opportunities. Additionally, Turkey’s defensive approach, especially when under pressure, often leads to conceding corners. Thus, Austria are likely to win more corners in this match, with the total corners expected to be around 9, considering both teams’ attacking intents.
- Shot on Target Prediction: Marko Arnautovic
Marko Arnautovic, as Austria’s primary forward, is central to their attacking play. His physical presence, coupled with his ability to find space in the box, makes him a constant threat. Arnautovic’s knack for getting into shooting positions and his proficiency in front of goal are evident from his performances in the tournament.
He averages several shots on target per game, reflecting his role as the focal point of Austria’s attack. Given Turkey’s defensive inconsistencies, Arnautovic is likely to have multiple opportunities to test the goalkeeper, making him a strong candidate for having at least one shot on target in this match.
- Yellow Card Prediction: Gernot Trauner
Gernot Trauner’s aggressive style of defending often sees him engaging in physical battles with opposition attackers. His role in Austria’s defence requires him to make crucial tackles and interceptions, sometimes at the cost of drawing fouls. Trauner’s tendency to commit to challenges, especially against pacey forwards, increases his chances of receiving a yellow card.
Considering Turkey’s quick and skilful attackers, Trauner will likely be involved in numerous defensive duels, heightening the probability of a booking. His past record and style of play support the prediction that he is likely to receive a yellow card during this encounter.
- Assist Prediction: Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner’s creativity and vision have been pivotal for Austria’s attacking success. He has been directly involved in several goals through his precise passing and intelligent movement. Baumgartner’s ability to find his teammates in advantageous positions makes him a key playmaker for Austria.
Given Turkey’s defensive lapses and Baumgartner’s form, he is well-placed to provide an assist in this match. His knack for threading through balls and delivering accurate crosses enhances his likelihood of creating a goal-scoring opportunity, making him a reliable choice for registering an assist.
- Innovative Market Prediction: Total Shots on Target Over 8.5
Both Austria and Turkey have shown a propensity for attacking play, leading to numerous shots on target. Austria average 5.7 shots on target per game, while Turkey average 5.3. The match is expected to be open and dynamic, with both teams likely to create several scoring opportunities. Austria’s high pressing and Turkey’s counter-attacking style suggest a match with plenty of goalmouth action.
Given these statistics and the attacking nature of both sides, predicting over 8.5 total shots on target is a viable and exciting market. This bet leverages the attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, promising a high-action encounter.
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