Austria vs France Predictions

Austria vs France predictions for this Euro 2024 affair Can Les Bleus get their campaign off to the perfect start? Read on for our free match preview and betting tips

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 17, 2024 at 8pm UK at Merkur Spiel-Arena

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Austria vs France Predictions

Euro 2024 Group D Opener: Austria’s Resurgence Faces France’s Firepower

As Austria and France prepare to face off in their Euro 2024 Group D opener at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf, the anticipation is palpable. Both teams aim to kick off their campaigns on a strong note, making this a match filled with strategic depth, key player performances, and tactical battles.

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Austria, under the management of Ralf Rangnick, have shown a remarkable transformation. Rangnick has deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows for both defensive solidity and offensive flexibility. The attack often revolves around the interplay between Michael Gregoritsch and midfield creators like Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner. Austria’s ability to transition quickly from defence to attack has been a hallmark of their play, highlighted by their consistent goal-scoring in recent matches. They average 2.1 goals per game in the qualifiers, demonstrating their offensive prowess.

Defensively, Austria have been robust, conceding only 0.9 goals per game in the qualifiers. The defensive unit, led by Maximilian Wöber and Philipp Lienhart, has been crucial in maintaining this record. Despite the absence of David Alaba, their organisation and discipline have kept opponents at bay. Their ability to recover possession and initiate counter-attacks quickly will be vital against France.

France, managed by Didier Deschamps, utilise a 4-2-3-1 formation that maximises their attacking talents. The forward line, spearheaded by Kylian Mbappé, relies on the creativity of Antoine Griezmann and the dynamism of Kingsley Coman. France’s offensive strategy is built on rapid transitions and exploiting spaces behind defences. With an average of 3.6 goals per game in the qualifiers, their attacking potential is immense.

Defensively, France have been solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game in the qualifiers. The centre-back pairing of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano offers both physicality and composure. Their full-backs, Jules Koundé and Theo Hernandez, provide width in attack while ensuring defensive stability. France’s ability to maintain possession (64% on average) and control the tempo of the game has been key to their success.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Austria: Michael Gregoritsch has been a standout performer, leading the line with six goals in his last 10 international appearances. His ability to hold up play and finish clinically will be crucial. Marcel Sabitzer’s role in midfield cannot be understated; his vision and passing range make him a key player in linking defence and attack. Christoph Baumgartner adds creativity and goal-scoring ability from the midfield, making Austria’s attack more versatile.

France: Kylian Mbappé continues to be the linchpin of France’s attack, with nine goals in the qualifiers. His pace and dribbling ability make him a constant threat. Antoine Griezmann’s creativity and ability to find space between the lines are vital for unlocking defences. In midfield, Adrien Rabiot’s box-to-box capabilities ensure both defensive coverage and offensive support. Defensively, William Saliba’s performances have been stellar, providing solidity at the back.

Impact of Management on Style of Play

Ralf Rangnick’s influence on Austria has been profound. His tactical acumen and ability to instil discipline have transformed Austria into a formidable side. Rangnick’s emphasis on quick transitions and pressing high up the pitch has allowed Austria to dominate games and create numerous scoring opportunities. His ability to adapt tactics based on the opponent has also been a key factor in Austria’s recent success.

Didier Deschamps has maintained a balance between defensive solidity and attacking flair for France. His experience and strategic depth have ensured that France remain a top contender in major tournaments. Deschamps’ ability to manage egos and maintain squad harmony has been critical, particularly with a team filled with superstars. His focus on maintaining possession and controlling the game’s tempo has allowed France to dictate terms against most opponents.

Expected Goals Analysis

Austria’s expected goals (xG) average of 2.1 per game highlights their efficiency in front of goal. Their ability to create high-quality chances and convert them has been a key aspect of their play. Defensively, their xG against of 0.9 per game indicates a strong defensive setup capable of limiting opponents’ chances.

France, with an xG of 3.6 per game, are one of the most potent attacking teams in the tournament. Their ability to create numerous high-quality chances, coupled with clinical finishing, makes them a formidable opponent. Defensively, an xG against of 0.4 per game underscores their capability to restrict opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Tactics and Performance Comparison

Tactically, Austria’s approach involves pressing high and transitioning quickly. Their midfield trio of Laimer, Sabitzer, and Baumgartner is key to this strategy, providing both defensive cover and creative outlets. Austria’s ability to adapt their formation and tactics based on the opponent makes them a versatile and unpredictable side.

France’s tactics revolve around maintaining possession and exploiting spaces with quick, incisive passes. Their attacking trio of Mbappé, Griezmann, and Giroud offers a blend of pace, creativity, and finishing. France’s strength lies in their depth and ability to control the game’s tempo, ensuring they can switch between a possession-based game and quick transitions as needed.

Suggestions for Improvement

Austria need to improve their finishing efficiency to convert more of their chances into goals. Defensively, maintaining concentration and organisation, especially against high-quality opponents like France, will be crucial. Enhancing their set-piece effectiveness could also provide an additional goal-scoring avenue.

France should focus on maintaining their defensive discipline and avoiding complacency. Ensuring that their attacking players track back and contribute defensively will be vital against Austria’s counter-attacks. Improving their set-piece defence, given Austria’s aerial threat, will also be important.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Austria’s Strengths:

• Strong pressing game and quick transitions.
• Versatile midfield with creativity and defensive solidity.
• Consistent goal-scoring ability.

Austria’s Weaknesses:

• Finishing efficiency could be improved.
• Defensive organisation can lapse against top-quality opposition.

France’s Strengths:

• High-quality attacking options with depth.
• Strong defensive record and ability to maintain possession.
• Experience and tactical flexibility.

France’s Weaknesses:

• Occasional complacency in defence.
• Dependence on key players for creativity and goal-scoring.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Austria’s Approach

Offensively, Austria have excelled under Rangnick, deploying a dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation. This setup allows them to balance defensive solidity with attacking flair. Key players like Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner play crucial roles in midfield, providing creativity and drive. Austria’s attack is often spearheaded by Michael Gregoritsch, who has shown his prowess in recent matches.

Defensively, Austria are organised and disciplined. With Stefan Posch and Maximilian Wöber at the back, they have a solid foundation. The midfield duo of Konrad Laimer and Florian Grillitsch offers protection to the defence, breaking up opposition play and launching counter-attacks. This balance has been instrumental in their impressive form, conceding only seven goals in the qualifiers.

France’s Strategy

France employ a versatile 4-3-3 formation, which maximises their attacking potential while maintaining defensive stability. Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, and Olivier Giroud form a potent attacking trio. Mbappé’s pace and dribbling skills, combined with Griezmann’s vision and Giroud’s aerial prowess, make France’s attack one of the most formidable in the tournament.

Defensively, France rely on the experience of players like Raphaël Varane and Lucas Hernández. Their midfield, anchored by N’Golo Kanté and Adrien Rabiot, provides both defensive cover and offensive support. This setup allows France to control possession and dictate the tempo of the game, as evidenced by their low goals conceded during the qualifiers.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Austria

Marcel Sabitzer has been pivotal for Austria, contributing both goals and assists. His ability to dictate the play from midfield and deliver precise set-pieces makes him a significant threat. Christoph Baumgartner’s creativity and work rate add another dimension to Austria’s attack. Michael Gregoritsch, with his clinical finishing, has been Austria’s main goal threat, scoring crucial goals in the qualifiers.

France

Kylian Mbappé remains the standout performer for France. His speed, technical ability, and goal-scoring record are exceptional. Antoine Griezmann’s playmaking skills and vision make him indispensable, providing key assists and maintaining the attacking flow. Olivier Giroud, despite his age, continues to be a reliable target man, using his physicality and experience to great effect.

Managerial Impact

Ralf Rangnick (Austria)

Rangnick’s influence on Austria cannot be overstated. His tactical acumen and ability to instil discipline have transformed Austria into a cohesive unit. Rangnick’s emphasis on pressing and quick transitions has made Austria a difficult team to break down. His strategic nous was evident in Austria’s impressive qualifying campaign and their ability to compete against stronger opponents.

Didier Deschamps (France)

Deschamps, with his wealth of experience, has maintained France’s status as a footballing powerhouse. His pragmatic approach and ability to adapt tactics based on opponents have been key to France’s success. However, his conservative style has sometimes been criticised for stifling the team’s attacking potential. Despite this, Deschamps’ leadership has been crucial in guiding France through various tournaments.

Analysis of Expected Goals (xG)

Austria’s xG

Austria’s expected goals (xG) reflect their balanced approach. With an xG of 2.1 per game in the qualifiers, they have shown the ability to create and convert chances effectively. Players like Sabitzer and Gregoritsch have significantly contributed to this, consistently getting into goal-scoring positions.

France’s xG

France boast an impressive xG of 3.6 per game, underscoring their attacking dominance. Mbappé and Griezmann have been the main contributors, regularly getting into high-quality scoring positions. This high xG indicates France’s ability to sustain pressure and create numerous goal-scoring opportunities.

Tactical Comparison

Tactics

Austria’s tactics under Rangnick focus on disciplined defending and rapid transitions. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allows them to remain compact defensively while exploiting spaces on the counter-attack. France, on the other hand, utilise a 4-3-3 formation that prioritises possession and attacking fluidity. Their ability to switch between controlled build-up play and swift counter-attacks makes them versatile and dangerous.

Player Performances

Austria’s key players, such as Sabitzer and Baumgartner, are crucial in their transitional play. France’s reliance on Mbappé’s pace and Griezmann’s creativity highlights their offensive strategy. Defensively, both teams are robust, but France’s experience at the back gives them an edge.

Overall Success

France’s recent history in international tournaments showcases their success, whereas Austria’s recent form under Rangnick shows promise. France’s superior squad depth and experience make them favourites, but Austria’s tactical discipline and current form suggest they could spring a surprise.

Suggestions for Improvement

Austria

To improve, Austria should focus on enhancing their defensive transitions to prevent counter-attacks. Additionally, increasing their efficiency in front of goal will be crucial against top-tier defences like France’s. Integrating more attacking drills in training could help players like Gregoritsch and Sabitzer improve their conversion rates.

France

France need to address their occasional defensive lapses, which were evident in their draw against Canada. Improving their defensive organisation, particularly during set-pieces, will be vital. Furthermore, Deschamps could consider a more attacking approach to utilise the full potential of his forwards.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Austria’s Strengths

Austria’s strengths lie in their tactical discipline and effective counter-attacks. Rangnick’s system has made them defensively solid and capable of exploiting spaces left by opponents. Their midfield dynamism, led by Sabitzer, allows them to control games and transition quickly from defence to attack.

Austria’s Weaknesses

However, Austria’s reliance on counter-attacks can be a double-edged sword. Against teams that maintain high possession, they may struggle to create chances. Additionally, the absence of key players like Alaba and Schlager due to injuries could weaken their defensive solidity and midfield creativity.

France’s Strengths

France’s attacking prowess is their main strength. With players like Mbappé, Griezmann, and Giroud, they can break down any defence. Their midfield, led by Kanté, ensures control and stability, while their defence, featuring experienced players like Varane, provides a solid foundation.

France’s Weaknesses

France’s weakness lies in their occasional complacency. Their draw against Canada highlighted potential issues in maintaining intensity against perceived weaker opponents. Additionally, Deschamps’ conservative approach can sometimes limit their attacking potential, making them predictable in tight matches.

Managerial Criticism

While Rangnick’s transformation of Austria has been commendable, one could argue that his tactical rigidity might be a hindrance. Austria’s reliance on counter-attacks and their inability to control possession against stronger teams could be problematic. Rangnick’s reluctance to adapt his tactics might lead to Austria struggling against high-pressing teams.

On the other hand, Deschamps has faced criticism for his conservative tactics, which some argue stifle the attacking potential of his team. Given the abundance of attacking talent at his disposal, a more adventurous approach could yield better results. Deschamps’ loyalty to experienced but perhaps out-of-form players has also been questioned, with calls for integrating younger, more dynamic players into the starting lineup.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Austria/Draw Double Chance

Considering Austria’s formidable form under Ralf Rangnick, betting on them to either win or draw against France seems prudent. Austria’s resilience is evidenced by their impressive run of results, including six wins from their last seven matches. Rangnick’s tactical acumen has turned Austria into a disciplined and hard-to-beat side.

Despite France’s undeniable quality, their recent draw against Canada shows they can be held, especially against well-organised defences. Austria’s ability to transition quickly and their solid defensive setup make them capable of securing at least a point in this encounter.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Austria 1-1 France

A 1-1 draw appears a likely outcome for this match. Austria have been consistent in finding the back of the net, having scored in their last 17 games. France, while strong defensively, have shown vulnerability in recent matches, including a goalless draw against Canada. Austria’s structured defensive play, combined with their counter-attacking prowess, suggests they can breach France’s defence.

Meanwhile, France’s attacking talent, led by Kylian Mbappé, is almost certain to score. This balanced outcome reflects both teams’ strengths and current form.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappé to Score

Kylian Mbappé is the standout candidate to score in this match. His pace, skill, and clinical finishing make him France’s most potent attacking threat. Mbappé has been in excellent form, netting nine goals in the Euro 2024 qualifiers. His ability to exploit defensive gaps and create scoring opportunities from seemingly impossible situations gives him an edge.

Austria’s defence, though solid, may struggle to contain his explosive runs and precise shots. Given his track record, backing Mbappé to score seems a reliable bet.

4. Corner Prediction: France to Win More Corners (Total Corners Over 10)

France’s attacking style and dominance in possession typically result in a high number of corners. Their strategy of utilising the wings and delivering crosses into the box increases their corner count. With players like Mbappé and Griezmann constantly pressuring defences, France are likely to win more corners.

Austria, while defensively robust, will likely clear their lines frequently, leading to additional corners. The expected total corner count should exceed 10, reflecting both teams’ attacking endeavours and defensive resilience.

5. Shot on Target Prediction: Marcel Sabitzer Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Marcel Sabitzer, Austria’s creative midfield dynamo, is likely to have multiple shots on target. Sabitzer’s role involves both creating chances and taking shots from distance. His ability to strike accurately from outside the box and his position as a set-piece taker provide numerous opportunities for shots on goal.

Given Austria’s offensive tactics, Sabitzer will be a central figure in their attempts to break down France’s defence. Backing him to have over 1.5 shots on target aligns with his recent performances and Austria’s attacking strategy.

6. Assist Prediction: Antoine Griezmann to Provide an Assist

Antoine Griezmann’s vision and passing ability make him an excellent candidate to provide an assist. Operating in the creative hub of France’s attack, Griezmann excels at delivering precise passes that unlock defences. His understanding with forwards like Mbappé and Giroud enhances his assist potential.

Griezmann’s role often involves dropping deep to collect the ball and initiate attacks, providing through balls and crosses that lead to goals. Given his recent form and the quality of France’s forward line, betting on Griezmann to register an assist is well-founded.

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