Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Predictions

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna predictions for this La Liga clash. Athletic Bilbao, aiming for a top-four La Liga spot, host 13th-placed Osasuna at San Mames, trailing Atletico Madrid by six points in fifth. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.

Athletic Bilbao

La Liga | Gameweek 35 – May 11, 2024 at 8.00pm UK at San Mames Barria

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Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Predictions

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Champions League Chase Intensifies: Athletic Bilbao’s Crucial Stand Against Osasuna

Key Stats

– Athletic Bilbao have secured 38 of their league points at home this season.

– Osasuna have lost their last four matches, scoring only once.

– Inaki Williams has been directly involved in 20 goals for Bilbao this season.

Athletic Bilbao’s aspiration for a Champions League qualification remains alive as they host Osasuna this weekend at San Mames. Positioned fifth, six points adrift of fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, Ernesto Valverde’s squad faces a critical juncture in their campaign. Meanwhile, Osasuna, comfortably placed at thirteenth in La Liga, appears more relaxed with lesser stakes involved. This match not only poses a significant challenge for Bilbao but also offers Osasuna an opportunity to disrupt Athletic’s European dreams.

Team Dynamics and Form

Athletic Bilbao has shown commendable form at home, securing 38 points from 17 matches. This home strength will be pivotal as they face an Osasuna team that has accumulated 18 points in their travels. Despite Osasuna’s mid-table comfort, their recent form paints a bleak picture—four consecutive losses with a scant goal tally, which signals potential vulnerabilities that Bilbao could exploit.


The crux of Bilbao’s challenge lies in their depleted defence, with Yeray Alvarez and Aitor Paredes serving suspensions and multiple injuries plaguing key players. This makeshift defence will need to withstand Osasuna’s attacks, primarily steered by Lucas Torro and Raul Garcia, who are expected to start despite the team’s injury woes.

Tactical Analysis

Athletic Bilbao’s Approach: Valverde is likely to focus on leveraging his team’s robust attacking capabilities, especially through Inaki Williams and Alex Berenguer, who have been instrumental this season. The strategy would likely involve high pressing and exploiting the wings to bypass Osasuna’s compact midfield.

Osasuna’s Strategy: Under Jagoba Arrasate, Osasuna might adopt a conservative approach, aiming to exploit Bilbao’s defensive gaps through counter-attacks. The potential absence of their regular starters could see Osasuna relying more on discipline and structured play rather than outright aggression.

Key Battles

The midfield tussle between Athletic’s Unai Vencedor and Osasuna’s Lucas Torro could dictate the pace and control of the game. Additionally, the performance of Bilbao’s makeshift centre-back pairing against Osasuna’s forward line could be decisive in the outcome.

Highly Opinionated Analysis

Athletic Bilbao: The team’s reliance on a weakened defence could be their Achilles’ heel, yet their formidable attacking form and the urgency to chase a Champions League spot might just tip the scales in their favour. Valverde’s experience and tactical acumen will be crucial, but the team must avoid complacency against a seemingly weaker opponent.

Osasuna: Arrasate’s impending departure could either unsettle the team or galvanise them to deliver a strong finish to the season. The team’s recent form does not inspire confidence, and their lack of goals is a glaring issue that needs immediate redress. Osasuna’s ability to surprise, however, should not be underestimated.

Predictions and Strategic Bets

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  1. Best Bet – Draw: Considering Bilbao’s defensive struggles and Osasuna’s need to rebound from recent defeats, a draw seems a plausible outcome, making it a safe bet for this encounter.
  2. Correct Score Prediction – Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Osasuna: This scoreline reflects the possible impact of Bilbao’s defensive vulnerabilities and Osasuna’s conservative but potentially effective approach on the road.
  3. Goalscorer Prediction – Inaki Williams: As Bilbao’s leading forward, Williams’s pace and skill could see him finding the net, especially with Osasuna’s defence not at its strongest.
  4. Corner Prediction – Athletic Bilbao to have more corners; Total corners over 9.5: Bilbao’s attacking style and wing play should result in a higher number of corners. Both teams’ tactics suggest a game rich in set-pieces, pushing the total corners count up.
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Gerard Gabasa
Gerard Gabasa is our go-to football expert for all things Spanish. His passion for the game is evident in every analysis he offers. Having played professionally with Málaga's youth team, Gerard blends firsthand experience with deep insights. While he didn't ascend to the senior ranks, this stint enriched his understanding of the game's nuances. Over the years, Gerard has crafted in-depth match analyses and player evaluations that showcase his profound knowledge. With Gerard, expect a seasoned perspective on Spanish football every time.