Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe predictions for their La Liga clash. The 2024-25 La Liga season kicks off with Athletic Bilbao hosting Getafe at San Mamés on Thursday evening. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
La Liga | Aug 15, 2024 at 6pm UK at San Mames Barria
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe Predictions
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Can Athletic Bilbao Overcome Getafe’s Challenge in La Liga Opener?
Key Stats
Athletic Bilbao secured 12 home wins last season, losing only once at San Mames.
Getafe have failed to win in their last eight encounters against Bilbao, drawing six and losing two.
Inaki Williams has scored five goals in his last four matches against Getafe, highlighting his knack for finding the net against the Madrid-based side.
As the 2024-25 La Liga season kicks off, Athletic Bilbao are set to welcome Getafe to San Mames for what promises to be an intriguing opening encounter. Bilbao, fresh from a memorable 2023-24 season, where they not only secured a Europa League spot but also ended a 40-year drought by lifting the Copa del Rey, will be eager to begin their campaign on a high note.
Meanwhile, Getafe, who finished last season in 12th place, will be looking to find stability amid a summer of significant changes. This analysis delves into the likely dynamics of the match, focusing on tactical strategies, key players, and possible outcomes.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Athletic Bilbao have had a mixed pre-season, and they enter this match with several injury concerns. Unai Simon, their first-choice goalkeeper, along with Alvaro Djalo, Oscar De Marcos, and Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, are all expected to be unavailable. Julen Agirrezabala, Nico Serrano, and Adu Ares are also doubtful, and their fitness will be assessed closer to kickoff. As a result, Alex Padilla, who has featured prominently in pre-season, is likely to start in goal for Bilbao, making his La Liga debut.
For Getafe, the situation is equally precarious. Borja Mayoral is in the final stages of his recovery from a knee injury, and while Djene is nearing a move to the Saudi Pro League, he could still feature. Getafe’s new signings, including Peter, Sola, and Perez, are expected to make their debuts, while Diego Rico is set to return for another stint at the club.
Expected Lineups:
- Athletic Bilbao: Padilla; Gorosabel, Alvarez, Paredes, Berchiche; Vesga, Prados; I Williams, Sancet, N Williams; Guruzeta
- Getafe: Soria; Iglesias, Aberdin, Alderete, Rico; Milla, Arambarri, Santiago; Sola, Peter, Perez
The expected lineups suggest Bilbao will likely adopt a balanced approach, with Nico Williams and Guruzeta leading the charge in attack, while Getafe might rely on their new signings to inject freshness into a squad that has seen considerable turnover.
Tactical Analysis and Key Player Duels
Bilbao’s strength lies in their ability to control matches, especially at home. Last season, they won 12 of their 19 home games, a testament to their resilience and tactical discipline under Ernesto Valverde. Their 4-2-3-1 formation is likely to allow them to dominate possession, with the Williams brothers, Inaki and Nico, playing pivotal roles in breaking down Getafe’s defence.
Nico Williams, in particular, will be a player to watch. Handed the number 10 jersey after the departure of Iker Muniain, Nico is expected to be the creative force behind Bilbao’s attack. His ability to dribble past defenders and deliver key passes will be crucial against a Getafe side that has struggled defensively during pre-season.
On the other hand, Getafe will likely sit deep, relying on counter-attacks to exploit any gaps left by Bilbao’s full-backs, particularly Yuri Berchiche, who often ventures forward. The duel between Berchiche and Getafe’s Sola could be a deciding factor, with the latter’s pace potentially causing problems for Bilbao’s left flank.
Expected Gameplay Dynamics
Given Bilbao's strong home record and Getafe's pre-season struggles, the Basque side are expected to take the initiative from the outset. Bilbao's ability to press high and win the ball back quickly could stifle Getafe's attempts to build from the back, forcing them into long balls that may not yield much success against a well-organised Bilbao defence.
Getafe, under Jose Bordalas, are likely to adopt a pragmatic approach. Bordalas, known for his defensive mindset, might instruct his team to focus on frustrating Bilbao by crowding the midfield and denying them space. However, Getafe's lack of firepower upfront, especially with Mayoral still recovering, could limit their ability to convert any chances that come their way.
Strengths and Weaknesses: A Deep Dive
Athletic Bilbao: Bilbao's primary strength lies in their organised defensive setup and ability to control games at home. They conceded only 37 goals in 38 games last season, which speaks to their solidity at the back. Their midfield, anchored by Vesga, is adept at breaking up play and distributing the ball efficiently, which allows their wingers to attack with pace.
However, Bilbao's reliance on their home form could be seen as a weakness. Away from San Mames, they have been less convincing, and their form can be inconsistent. Furthermore, with key players like Unai Simon unavailable, there may be some uncertainty at the back, especially with Padilla making his La Liga debut.
Getafe: Getafe's main strength under Bordalas has been their ability to disrupt the flow of the game, making life difficult for technically superior teams. Their physicality and tenacity in midfield often lead to turnovers, which they can exploit on the counter.
Conversely, Getafe's weaknesses are glaring. They have struggled to score goals, managing just 42 in 38 games last season. With several key players having departed, including top scorers from the previous campaign, Getafe might find it difficult to pose a consistent threat in the final third. Additionally, their defensive vulnerabilities, especially when facing teams with quick, skilful wingers, could be exposed by Bilbao's attacking prowess.
Managerial Analysis and Critique
Ernesto Valverde's return to Bilbao has been met with optimism, especially after leading the club to Copa del Rey glory and a fifth-place finish. Valverde's pragmatic approach has brought stability, and his ability to get the best out of Nico Williams will be key to Bilbao's fortunes this season. However, Valverde has sometimes been criticised for his cautious approach in big games, where a more aggressive strategy might have yielded better results. As Bilbao aim for a top-four finish, Valverde will need to strike the right balance between defence and attack.
On the other hand, Jose Bordalas has built a reputation for being a no-nonsense manager, favouring a direct, physical style of play. While this approach has brought some success, including keeping Getafe in La Liga, it has also been criticised for being overly negative. In a league where technical ability often trumps physicality, Bordalas' methods can sometimes feel outdated, especially when facing teams that can effectively break down deep defensive blocks. If Getafe are to improve on their 12th-place finish from last season, Bordalas might need to adapt and bring more variety to his tactical approach.
Betting Angles and Expected Goals Analysis
Bilbao's expected goals (xG) average last season was higher at home than away, which aligns with their strong home form. They averaged 1.6 goals per game, with a significant portion of their goals coming from inside the box. Getafe, meanwhile, struggled to create high-quality chances, with their xG reflecting their struggles in front of goal. This suggests that Bilbao are likely to dominate proceedings, creating more and better chances, especially in the first half.
From a betting perspective, the data supports backing Athletic Bilbao to score in both halves, given their tendency to start strong at home. Additionally, with Getafe's defensive issues and Bilbao's attacking options, a bet on both teams to score could also offer value, particularly if Getafe manage to exploit any lapses in Bilbao's makeshift defence.
Predictions
Best Bet: Athletic Bilbao to Win and Both Teams to Score
Athletic Bilbao are expected to continue their strong home form from last season, where they won 12 out of 19 games at San Mames. However, with Getafe's ability to occasionally snatch a goal, especially against weakened defences, this match could see both teams find the net. Bilbao's superior quality, particularly with the Williams brothers leading the attack, should see them through, but not without some resistance from Getafe. A 2-1 victory for the home side seems the most likely outcome, reflecting Bilbao's edge in both form and firepower.
Correct Score Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Getafe
Given the anticipated dynamics of the game, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Athletic Bilbao seems plausible. Bilbao's attacking unit, spearheaded by Nico Williams, is likely to breach Getafe's defence, but the visitors may find a way to score, possibly through a set piece or a counter-attack. This scoreline also aligns with the best bet prediction, suggesting a competitive match with Bilbao edging it.
Goalscorer Prediction: Nico Williams to Score Anytime
Nico Williams, who has been handed the number 10 shirt, is poised to be Bilbao's talisman this season. His ability to take on defenders and create scoring opportunities makes him a prime candidate to get on the scoresheet. With Getafe's defensive frailties, Williams could well find himself in the right positions to capitalise and open his account for the season.
Corner Prediction: Athletic Bilbao to Win More Corners and Over 9.5 Total Corners
Bilbao's tendency to dominate possession, particularly at home, often leads to a high number of corners. Last season, they averaged 5.5 corners per game, compared to Getafe's 3.8. With Bilbao expected to be on the front foot, especially in the early stages, they are likely to win more corners. A total of over 9.5 corners in the match seems a safe bet, given the expected flow of the game.
Innovative Market: Total Shots on Target Over 10.5
With Bilbao's attacking intent and Getafe's potential to break forward on the counter, the match could see a flurry of shots on target. Bilbao averaged 4.5 shots on target per game last season, while Getafe managed 4.2. Given the open nature of season openers, especially with teams still adjusting defensively, backing over 10.5 total shots on target offers good value, with both teams likely to test the opposition goalkeeper multiple times.
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