Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions ahead of Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final in Dublin. Bayer Leverkusen’s invincibles aim to continue their dream season by defeating Atalanta in Dublin for the UEFA Europa League trophy. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Europa League | Final – May 22, 2024 at 8pm UK at Aviva Stadium

Don’t have a Bet365 account? Click below to claim this offer👇

Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Leverkusen’s Unbeaten Streak Faces Atalanta’s Challenge in Europa League Final

The Europa League final is upon us, with Bayer Leverkusen facing Atalanta in Dublin for the coveted trophy. Leverkusen, under the tutelage of Xabi Alonso, have had a dream season, completing an unbeaten domestic campaign and aiming to cap it off with European success. Atalanta, guided by Gian Piero Gasperini, have been resilient and impressive, knocking out heavyweights to reach this stage. Let’s delve into the intricacies of this thrilling encounter, analyse both teams’ performances, and make well-supported predictions.

Match Preview

Bayer Leverkusen come into this final with an enviable unbeaten record across all competitions this season. Their journey to the Europa League final has been marked by dominance, tactical prowess, and an unwavering team spirit. A 4-2 aggregate victory over Roma in the semi-finals exemplified their resilience and attacking efficiency. With the Bundesliga title already secured, Leverkusen are on the brink of achieving an unbeaten treble, a feat that would etch their name in football history.

Atalanta’s path to the final has been nothing short of spectacular. Their rise under Gasperini has seen them transform into one of Italy’s top teams. This season, they eliminated Sporting Lisbon, Liverpool, and Marseille, showcasing their ability to compete against Europe’s elite. Despite a setback in the Coppa Italia final against Juventus, Atalanta remain formidable opponents, ready to challenge Leverkusen’s quest for glory.

Expected Lineups and Team News

Atalanta are grappling with key injuries, particularly in midfield. Marten de Roon will miss the final due to a knee injury, and doubts linger over the fitness of Emil Holm and Sead Kolasinac. Nevertheless, their lineup remains strong with Gianluca Scamacca leading the attack, supported by creative talents like Charles De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman.

Atalanta probable lineup:

• Musso; Hien, Toloi, Djimsiti; Koopmeiners, Ederson, Ruggeri, Zappacosta; Lookman, De Ketelaere, Scamacca

Leverkusen, in contrast, are at near full strength. Florian Wirtz, who has been recovering from a thigh injury, is expected to start, adding to their attacking depth. Granit Xhaka and Piero Hincapie, who were rested in the league, will likely feature in the starting eleven.

Leverkusen probable lineup:

• Kovar; Hincapie, Tah, Tapsoba, Frimpong; Stanisic, Andrich, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Wirtz, Adli

Tactical Analysis and Gameplay Prediction

Leverkusen’s attacking prowess is evident, with an average of 2.6 goals per game in the Bundesliga. Their forward line, spearheaded by Victor Okoh Boniface and supported by Florian Wirtz, poses a significant threat. Leverkusen’s strategy revolves around high pressing, quick transitions, and exploiting spaces with their pacey wingers. Defensively, they have been solid, conceding only 24 goals in 34 league matches, indicating a well-organized backline.

Atalanta’s approach is equally dynamic, with an emphasis on attacking football and creating numerous goal-scoring opportunities. They average 1.9 goals per game in Serie A and have scored 22 goals in the Europa League. Gianluca Scamacca, with six goals in the competition, will be crucial in breaking down Leverkusen’s defence. Atalanta’s defence, however, has shown vulnerabilities, conceding 39 goals in the league, which could be exploited by Leverkusen’s clinical forwards.

Key Duels and Decisive Areas

The midfield battle will be pivotal, with Granit Xhaka and Robert Andrich for Leverkusen going up against Atalanta’s Teun Koopmeiners and Ederson. Xhaka’s experience and ability to dictate play will be crucial, while Koopmeiners’ vision and passing can unlock Leverkusen’s defence.

In attack, the duel between Leverkusen’s Victor Okoh Boniface and Atalanta’s centre-backs Rafael Toloi and Berat Djimsiti will be key. Boniface’s movement and finishing ability will test Atalanta’s defensive resilience.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Bayer Leverkusen’s Strengths:

• Offensive Efficiency: Leverkusen have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
• Defensive Solidity: Conceding only 24 goals in the league highlights their defensive robustness.

Weaknesses:

• Pressure Handling: The weight of maintaining an unbeaten season might add pressure on the players.

Atalanta’s Strengths:

• Attacking Depth: With multiple goal-scoring threats, Atalanta can be unpredictable in attack.
• Resilience: Their journey to the final has shown their ability to compete against stronger teams.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Conceding 39 goals in the league shows a lack of defensive consistency.

Managerial Critique

Xabi Alonso has brought a winning mentality and tactical astuteness to Leverkusen. His emphasis on attacking football and solid defence has been key to their success. However, his lack of experience in handling the pressure of maintaining an unbeaten season could be a potential drawback.

Gian Piero Gasperini, known for his attacking philosophy, has transformed Atalanta into a European force. His ability to motivate and tactically prepare his team for big matches is commendable. However, his defensive setup often leaves gaps that can be exploited by strong attacking teams like Leverkusen.

Expected Goals Analysis

Leverkusen’s expected goals (xG) average is high, given their attacking statistics, with 89 goals in 34 matches indicating a potent offence. Atalanta’s xG is also substantial, reflecting their 67 goals in 36 matches. This suggests a match with multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with the prediction of both teams scoring.

Tactical Analysis

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Bayer Leverkusen have employed a high-pressing, attacking style under Xabi Alonso. Their offensive strategy is built around quick transitions, exploiting spaces with pacey wingers and precise passing. Leverkusen’s front line, featuring Victor Okoh Boniface and Florian Wirtz, has been prolific, with Boniface netting 14 goals and Wirtz adding 11. The team averages 2.6 goals per game, reflecting their dominance in the final third. Defensively, Leverkusen have been robust, conceding just 24 goals in the Bundesliga, thanks to a well-organised backline led by Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie.

Atalanta, on the other hand, play an expansive, risk-taking brand of football. Gasperini’s side is known for their attacking depth and fluidity, often creating numerous scoring opportunities. Gianluca Scamacca has been a revelation, scoring 11 goals in Serie A and six in the Europa League. Atalanta average 1.9 goals per game and are third-highest scorers in Serie A with 67 goals. Defensively, they have shown vulnerabilities, conceding 39 goals in the league. Their high-press approach can sometimes leave gaps at the back, which could be exploited by Leverkusen’s rapid counters.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Victor Okoh Boniface has been a standout performer for Leverkusen. His clinical finishing and ability to score crucial goals have been instrumental in their success. Florian Wirtz, despite recent injury struggles, remains a key creative force. His vision and passing ability make him a constant threat in the attacking third. Granit Xhaka has provided stability in midfield, contributing both defensively and offensively.

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca has been the focal point of their attack. His ability to score in big games has been crucial for their European campaign. Charles De Ketelaere has also been impressive, providing both goals and assists. Teun Koopmeiners has been a dynamic presence in midfield, contributing to both the defensive and offensive phases of play.

Impact of Management

Xabi Alonso’s management has transformed Leverkusen into a well-oiled machine. His tactical acumen, especially in setting up a high-pressing game and quick transitions, has brought the best out of his players. Alonso’s ability to rotate his squad effectively has kept his team fresh for crucial matches. However, his relative inexperience in handling the pressure of maintaining an unbeaten season could be a potential weak spot.

Gian Piero Gasperini has done wonders with Atalanta, making them one of Italy’s top teams. His attacking philosophy and willingness to take risks have paid off, as seen in their impressive run to the final. Gasperini’s ability to motivate his team and adapt tactically to different opponents has been commendable. However, his defensive setup often leaves gaps, which could be a significant disadvantage against a potent Leverkusen attack.

Expected Goals Analysis

Leverkusen’s expected goals (xG) metric is indicative of their attacking prowess, given their 89 goals in 34 Bundesliga matches. This translates to an xG of approximately 2.6 per game, highlighting their efficiency in front of goal. Atalanta’s xG is also substantial, with 67 goals in 36 matches, averaging around 1.9 xG per game. This suggests a high-scoring encounter, aligning with the prediction of both teams finding the net.

Comparison of Tactics, Player Performances, and Success

Leverkusen’s tactics under Alonso have been heavily focused on quick transitions and high pressing. Their ability to recover possession quickly and launch swift counter-attacks has been key to their success. Players like Boniface and Wirtz thrive in this system, exploiting spaces left by opposition defences.

Atalanta’s approach under Gasperini is more about controlling the game through possession and creating overloads in attacking areas. Scamacca’s presence as a target man allows midfielders like Koopmeiners and De Ketelaere to push forward and create chances. However, this approach can sometimes leave them vulnerable to counter-attacks.

In terms of success, Leverkusen’s unbeaten run and Bundesliga title speak volumes about their dominance. Atalanta’s journey to the Europa League final, while less consistent, shows their capability to perform against top teams. Both teams have had remarkable seasons, but Leverkusen’s overall success and consistency give them the edge.

Suggestions for Improvement

Leverkusen could benefit from maintaining their high pressing but ensuring they do not overcommit, especially against a team like Atalanta that thrives on exploiting spaces. Improving their composure in crucial moments and managing the pressure of an unbeaten season will be crucial.

Atalanta need to tighten their defensive setup. Gasperini’s attacking philosophy is effective, but balancing it with defensive solidity is necessary to prevent leaking goals. Working on their defensive organisation, particularly in transition, will help them manage Leverkusen’s counter-attacks.

Pros and Cons of Strategies

Leverkusen’s Strategy:

• Pros: High pressing, quick transitions, and clinical finishing.
• Cons: Potential overcommitment in attack, pressure of maintaining an unbeaten run.

Atalanta’s Strategy:

• Pros: Fluid attacking play, creative midfield, and depth in scoring.
• Cons: Defensive vulnerabilities, risk-taking can lead to exposure at the back.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Managers

Xabi Alonso has instilled a winning mentality in Leverkusen, making them a formidable force. His tactical setups are innovative and effective. However, his inexperience at managing the psychological aspects of an unbeaten season could be a weak point.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s experience and attacking philosophy have transformed Atalanta into a top team. His ability to motivate and tactically adapt is impressive. However, his reluctance to shore up defensively can be a major drawback, especially against a team with Leverkusen’s firepower.

Potential Betting Angles

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Bayer Leverkusen to Win and Both Teams to Score

Leverkusen’s exceptional form this season has seen them dominate both domestically and in Europe. Their attacking prowess is highlighted by an average of 2.6 goals per game in the Bundesliga. With players like Victor Okoh Boniface and Florian Wirtz, Leverkusen consistently create and convert scoring opportunities.

However, Atalanta, with their 1.9 goals per game in Serie A and 22 goals in the Europa League, are no slouches in attack. Gianluca Scamacca’s form, with six goals in his last seven European matches, further bolsters their offensive threat. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, making this a high-scoring encounter where Leverkusen are likely to edge out Atalanta given their superior quality and form.

2. Correct Score: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Atalanta

Given Leverkusen’s attacking firepower and Atalanta’s defensive vulnerabilities, a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Leverkusen is a plausible outcome. Leverkusen’s ability to score multiple goals is supported by their average of over two goals per game in Europe.

Atalanta’s defence, which has conceded 39 goals in Serie A, is likely to struggle against Leverkusen’s dynamic forwards. While Atalanta can be expected to find the net, particularly through Scamacca, Leverkusen’s clinical finishing and overall strength should see them secure a comfortable victory with a 3-1 scoreline.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Victor Okoh Boniface to Score

Victor Okoh Boniface has been a standout performer for Leverkusen this season, leading their goal-scoring charts. His sharp finishing and ability to perform in crucial matches make him a prime candidate to score against Atalanta.

Boniface has consistently found the back of the net in high-stakes games, and given Atalanta’s defensive lapses, he is likely to capitalise on any opportunities that come his way. His movement, positioning, and composure in front of goal set him apart, making him a solid bet to score at least once in this final.

4. Corner Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to Get More Corners

Leverkusen’s attacking style and frequent forays into the opposition’s half result in a high number of corners. They average 6.9 corners per game, reflecting their dominance in the final third. Atalanta, with an average of 5.7 corners per game, also generate a fair number of corners but tend to play more centrally.

Leverkusen’s wide play, especially through Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo, often leads to corners. Expect Leverkusen to have the upper hand in this department, with a total combined corners count likely to be around 12-14, given both teams’ attacking tendencies.

5. Shot on Target Prediction: Florian Wirtz to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Florian Wirtz’s return from injury has been a significant boost for Leverkusen. Known for his creativity and ability to test goalkeepers, Wirtz is likely to have at least one shot on target.

His vision and precision in the attacking third make him a constant threat. In a high-stakes final, Wirtz will be looking to make a decisive impact, and his knack for getting into goal-scoring positions supports this prediction. Given his role in Leverkusen’s attacking setup, he is expected to challenge Atalanta’s goalkeeper at least once during the match.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Granit Xhaka to Get a Yellow Card

Granit Xhaka’s combative style of play often sees him involved in physical battles and making crucial tackles. This season, he has accumulated five yellow cards, reflecting his aggressive approach. In a high-pressure final, Xhaka’s role as a midfield enforcer will be critical in breaking up Atalanta’s play and protecting his backline.

His tendency to commit fouls to stop counter-attacks or disrupt the opposition’s rhythm makes him a likely candidate for a booking. Expect Xhaka to be in the thick of the action, and don’t be surprised if he receives a yellow card for his troubles.

7. Assist Prediction: Jeremie Frimpong to Provide an Assist

Jeremie Frimpong’s pace and ability to deliver quality crosses from the right flank make him a key provider for Leverkusen. With seven assists to his name this season, Frimpong’s link-up play with the forwards, particularly Boniface and Wirtz, has been instrumental. His overlapping runs and accurate deliveries into the box create numerous scoring opportunities.

Against an Atalanta defence that can be susceptible to wide attacks, Frimpong is likely to find space to exploit and provide at least one assist. His attacking contributions from the right wing will be crucial in breaking down Atalanta’s defensive setup.

8. Innovative Market: Over 10.5 Total Shots on Target

Both teams’ attacking styles suggest a high number of shots on target. Leverkusen average 7.1 shots on target per game, while Atalanta average 5.5.

This match is expected to be open and competitive, with both teams pushing forward and creating opportunities. Given their offensive capabilities and the stakes of the final, backing over 10.5 shots on target is a well-supported prediction. The high tempo and quality of forwards on display should ensure plenty of goalmouth action, making this a viable betting angle for an exciting and action-packed final.

Top UK Bookies & Best Sign Up Offers 

Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips

Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!