Aston Villa vs Everton Predictions

Aston Villa vs Everton predictions for this Premier League clash. Aston Villa aim for consecutive Premier League wins for the first time this season as they host Everton at Villa Park on Saturday evening, seeking to build momentum. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Premier League | Sep 14, 2024 at 5:30pm UK at Villa Park

Aston Villa vs Everton Predictions

Can Aston Villa Exploit Everton’s Early-Season Woes?

• Everton’s Defensive Struggles Continue
  • Everton have conceded 10 goals in just three matches this season, with their defence showing no signs of improvement. With an average of 3.3 goals conceded per game, Sean Dyche’s side have been unable to withstand pressure, particularly against teams with clinical forwards like Aston Villa.
• Villa’s Set-Piece Threat
  • Aston Villa have scored four of their goals from inside the box, capitalising on their set-piece and crossing prowess. Everton, who have been vulnerable to such situations, averaging just 52.1% success in aerial duels, will need to be wary of Villa’s danger from wide areas and corners.
• Ollie Watkins’ Versatility
  • Though he has yet to find the net this season, Ollie Watkins remains Villa’s key attacking outlet, averaging 3.7 shots on target per game. Against Everton’s disorganised defence, he has a strong chance of contributing either through scoring or assisting, particularly given Everton’s issues in tracking forward runs.

Best Bet

Aston Villa are set to host Everton at Villa Park, a match that presents an intriguing contrast between two sides at opposite ends of form and expectation. Unai Emery’s men come into this contest eager to build on their positive start to the Premier League season. While they’ve experienced some hiccups, including a defeat at home to Arsenal, Villa’s overall trajectory suggests they have the quality to push for consistent results. Their recent 2-1 victory over Leicester highlighted their capacity to edge competitive fixtures, which will undoubtedly buoy them as they face a struggling Everton side.

On the other hand, Everton’s start to the campaign has been nothing short of dismal. Sean Dyche’s squad sits at the foot of the table, having lost all three of their matches and conceded 10 goals. Defensive frailties and a lack of composure have plagued the Toffees, and their latest 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth, where they squandered a 2-0 lead, further underscores their troubles. As Villa look to establish themselves as contenders for European football, Everton’s priority will be simply to stop the rot and find a way to secure their first points of the season.

Given the form and underlying statistics of both teams, the most compelling betting opportunity for this match is Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5 Goals. Villa’s attacking prowess and Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities make this a highly probable outcome.

The hosts have been solid in front of goal, averaging 1.3 goals per game across their opening matches, and with attacking talents like Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán, they pose a consistent threat. Watkins, in particular, will be eager to open his account for the season, especially against an Everton defence that has shipped 10 goals in just three games. Everton’s fragility at the back makes them susceptible to conceding, and with Villa’s ability to create 3.3 big chances per game, the odds favour a high-scoring encounter.

On the other side, Everton’s defensive record offers little optimism. They have been leaking an average of 3.3 goals per game, and even though their attacking output improved against Bournemouth, their inability to hold onto leads suggests they will struggle to contain Villa’s fluid attacking play. The Toffees’ defensive stats show they clear the ball 15.7 times per game, but this points more towards a team under constant pressure rather than one capable of controlling matches. Their high number of tackles and interceptions (23 tackles and 13.3 interceptions per game) further illustrates how much they’ve had to battle defensively without successfully repelling attacks.

Moreover, the Toffees’ lack of clean sheets this season and Villa’s habit of conceding goals themselves suggest that we could see Everton score, even in defeat. While Villa have gone seven home matches without a clean sheet, Everton have shown, in spurts, an ability to find the net, scoring in their last two league matches. As a result, an Everton goal wouldn’t be surprising, but their defensive frailty is likely to hand Villa multiple opportunities.

As our expert Gram Dodd from BettingTips4You.com points out:
“Villa’s attacking firepower, combined with Everton’s defensive frailties, make a high-scoring Villa win the most likely outcome. Everton’s inability to defend crosses and set-pieces could be their undoing, as Villa thrive in these areas with players like Watkins and Durán capable of capitalising.”

Additional Prediction

Another smart betting angle for this fixture is backing Ollie Watkins to score or assist. Despite a relatively slow start to the campaign, the Villa striker has the quality and positioning to make a significant impact, particularly against an Everton backline that has looked disorganised.

Watkins remains central to Villa’s attacking strategy, and his movement in the box could exploit Everton’s defensive gaps. The Toffees have allowed 12.3 shots per game, and Watkins, known for his positioning and ability to capitalise on half-chances, should have ample opportunities to get on the scoresheet. His record in matches like these suggests he can both score and provide assists, making this a valuable bet.

Considering Everton’s defensive lapses, particularly their struggles with aerial duels and crosses, Watkins’ versatility in the air and on the ground makes him an excellent bet to either score or assist. His current odds reflect confidence in his ability to break his goal drought, especially against one of the league’s poorest defences.

Correct Score Prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Everton

When looking at how the match could unfold, the prediction of a 3-1 victory for Aston Villa seems plausible. As mentioned, Villa’s attack should dominate, but their own defensive lapses could allow Everton to score a consolation.

Villa’s attacking stats show they average 12 shots per game with 3.7 on target. Against Everton’s shaky defence, this should convert into goals, and with Watkins spearheading the attack, a three-goal haul is within reach. Everton, while weak defensively, have shown flashes of improvement in attack, as seen in their recent comeback attempts, and their ability to generate 12.3 shots per game suggests they could grab a goal, even in a losing effort.

Moreover, Villa’s lack of clean sheets, as seen in their last seven home games, further supports the notion of Everton managing to score at least once. However, with the Toffees conceding over three goals per game, a 3-1 result perfectly fits the pattern of this encounter.

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