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Aston Villa vs Bologna predictions for this Europa League fixture. Aston Villa face Bologna at Villa Park on Thursday in the Europa League, with both sides aiming to assert themselves despite contrasting European pedigrees. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Best Odds Boost for this Match | |
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Europa League | Sep 25 2025 at 8:00 pm UK at Villa Park
Aston Villa vs Bologna Predictions
Will Villa’s Patience Finally Pay Off Against Bologna at Villa Park?
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- Villa’s dreadful conversion rate
- Despite generating 3.7 xG, Villa have scored just once in the Premier League, with a shocking conversion rate of only 1.9% from 52 attempts.
- Bologna’s away-day blues
- Bologna have failed to score in both of their Serie A away matches this season, continuing a trend from Europe last year where they managed only one goal in four road games.
- Low-scoring likelihood
- Five of Villa’s last six matches have featured two goals or fewer, while Bologna have netted only three times in four Serie A fixtures this term, making goals a scarce commodity.
Best Bet for Aston Villa vs Bologna
Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals | |
59/50 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Backing Villa to win with under 3.5 goals feels right because they are strong at home, Bologna are dreadful away, and both sides lack the firepower for a high-scoring contest. | |
Thursday night football at Villa Park is rarely short on drama, and this Europa League fixture feels especially charged. Aston Villa are desperate to shake off a dismal domestic start, and while their supporters are restless, they cling to the hope that European nights can deliver the confidence that has been so sorely lacking in the league.
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On the other side, Bologna arrive with their own mixed bag of form: steady at home, dreadful away, and still trying to figure out if they can live up to the expectations of continental football. Both teams carry baggage into this clash, but it is exactly that tension which makes this one so fascinating – two clubs who need the Europa League as much as they want it.
Best Bet for This Match
At BettingTips4You we cut through the noise. No scattergun of multiple picks, no hiding behind “maybes” – just one carefully thought-out prediction for this match. After digging into the data and weighing up the context, our Best Bet is Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals. This is the single tip we back with confidence, the one selection that makes sense of a tricky contest.
Let’s be blunt: Villa’s attack has been abysmal. They’ve managed just a single goal from 3.7 xG so far, converting at a measly 1.9%. Ollie Watkins cuts a lonely figure up top, and while the build-up play has been tidy, the finishing is closer to Sunday league than Europa League. Injuries haven’t helped either, with Youri Tielemans and Amadou Onana ruled out, further limiting their creativity. Still, numbers suggest their luck must turn soon – even if not in a flood of goals, then at least in a trickle.
Bologna’s issues are different but no less telling. On their travels they’ve looked completely toothless, failing to score in either of their Serie A away fixtures this season. Their Champions League campaign last term painted the same picture – away games littered with low xG and barely a shot worth remembering. Riccardo Orsolini is their shining light, carrying the attacking burden with 11 shots and two goals already, but when everything funnels through one man, predictability creeps in. Against a Villa side who allow a lot of attempts but limit them to an average xG/shot of just 0.08, Bologna might find themselves running into brick walls all night.
Villa’s European record at home underlines why bookies have them favourites. They control matches well, even if they rarely blow teams away. A 2-0 or 2-1 type of win looks realistic – solid, unspectacular, but exactly the sort of controlled performance Unai Emery thrives on. There is no evidence here of a high-scoring thriller; instead, this feels like a night where patience and organisation carry more weight than fireworks.
As BettingTips4You.com expert Luca Pratesi put it:
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“Villa’s finishing numbers are shocking right now, but sooner or later regression hits. With Bologna’s dreadful away record, a narrow home win with limited goals is the most convincing call.”
So why under 3.5? Because both teams lack the fluidity and ruthlessness to rack up the goals. Villa should win, but they will not run riot, and Bologna simply do not travel with enough conviction to chase a shoot-out.
A likely correct score is 2-0 to Aston Villa. Their home advantage, coupled with Bologna’s away struggles, points toward Villa finding just enough cutting edge while keeping things relatively tight at the back.
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