Argentina vs Colombia Predictions

Argentina vs Colombia predictions for Sunday’s Copa America Final. Defending champions Argentina, aiming for a 16th Copa America title, face Colombia in the final at Hard Rock Stadium, Florida, on Monday. Read on for our match preview and free betting tips.

Copa America | Final – Jul 15, 2024 at 1am UK at Hard Rock Stadium

Don’t Have a William Hill account? Click below to claim this offer👇

Argentina vs Colombia Predictions

Can Colombia Dethrone the Reigning Champions Argentina?

As we approach the highly anticipated final of this year’s Copa America, Argentina and Colombia are set to clash at the Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. This showdown marks the first time these two nations meet in the grand finale, with Argentina aiming for an unprecedented 16th Copa America title, while Colombia seeks their second.

Match Preview

Argentina’s journey to the final has been a tale of resilience and brilliance. Their semi-final triumph over Canada showcased their defensive solidity and attacking prowess, extending their unbeaten run to 10 matches. Julian Alvarez’s early strike, followed by Lionel Messi’s record-breaking goal, emphasized their dominance. Messi, now the second-highest male goalscorer in international football history, continues to be a crucial asset for Argentina.

Lionel Scaloni, Argentina’s head coach, has praised his team’s perseverance through tough challenges. This determination has seen them remain unbeaten in major tournament knockout fixtures on American soil since 1994. With Angel Di Maria set for his 145th and final international appearance, the team will be eager to send him off with a victory. Argentina’s impressive head-to-head record against Colombia, winning 26 out of 43 encounters, further boosts their confidence.

On the other hand, Colombia enters the final on the back of a historic 28-match unbeaten run. Their semi-final victory over Uruguay, despite being reduced to 10 men, highlighted their resilience. Nestor Lorenzo, Colombia’s head coach, has yet to taste defeat since his appointment in 2022, and his side’s remarkable form has brought them to the brink of glory. Colombia’s recent performances, including a dominant group stage and a gritty semi-final win, make them formidable opponents.

Team Analysis

Argentina’s Tactical Approach

Argentina are expected to field a strong, unchanged lineup. Emiliano Martinez will guard the goal, with a solid back four of Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, and Nicolas Tagliafico. The midfield will likely feature Enzo Fernandez and Rodrigo De Paul, with Angel Di Maria playing his final international match on the right flank. Messi and Alvarez will spearhead the attack, aiming to penetrate Colombia’s defense with their creativity and precision.

Colombia’s Tactical Approach

Colombia will miss the services of Daniel Munoz due to suspension, with Santiago Arias likely to replace him at right-back. Davinson Sanchez and Carlos Cuesta will form the central defensive partnership, while Johan Mojica will play as the left-back. The midfield will see Richard Rios and Jefferson Lerma in pivotal roles, with James Rodriguez, who has been outstanding with six assists, orchestrating the attack. Luis Diaz and Jhon Arias will provide width, and Jhon Cordoba, in fine form, will lead the line.

Key Players to Watch

Lionel Messi – Argentina Messi’s influence cannot be overstated. His vision, passing, and scoring ability make him the linchpin of Argentina’s attack. His leadership and experience are invaluable in high-stakes matches.

James Rodriguez – Colombia James has been instrumental for Colombia, providing six assists in the tournament. His ability to create chances and control the tempo will be crucial if Colombia are to challenge Argentina’s defense.

Jhon Cordoba – Colombia Cordoba has been in excellent form, contributing goals and assists. His physical presence and finishing skills will be a key threat to Argentina’s backline.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Argentina’s Offensive Strategy

Argentina’s attacking strategy revolves around their talisman, Lionel Messi, who orchestrates the play from a central or slightly right position. Supported by the industrious Rodrigo De Paul and the creative Alexis Mac Allister, Argentina focus on quick, short passes to break down defences. Julian Alvarez’s movement off the ball and his ability to link up with Messi has been crucial. Angel Di Maria, on the right flank, provides width and crosses, making Argentina’s attack multi-dimensional.

Argentina’s Defensive Strategy

Defensively, Argentina rely on a solid back four comprising Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, and Nicolas Tagliafico. Their defence is disciplined, with a focus on maintaining a high line to compress the play. This strategy has helped them concede only one goal in the tournament. The midfield duo of Enzo Fernandez and De Paul also contribute significantly to defensive duties, often dropping deep to protect the backline and disrupt opposition attacks.

Colombia’s Offensive Strategy

Colombia’s attack is dynamic and fluid, with James Rodriguez pulling the strings from a central attacking midfield position. James has been exceptional, registering six assists in the tournament. Luis Diaz and Jhon Arias provide pace and creativity on the wings, while Jhon Cordoba leads the line with his physical presence and finishing ability. Colombia often use quick transitions and counter-attacks, capitalising on the speed and dribbling skills of Diaz and Arias.

Colombia’s Defensive Strategy

Defensively, Colombia are compact and organised, employing a 4-2-3-1 formation. The back four of Santiago Arias, Davinson Sanchez, Carlos Cuesta, and Johan Mojica is well-coordinated. Jefferson Lerma and Richard Rios, as holding midfielders, shield the defence and break up opposition play. Despite their solid defensive record, Colombia’s reliance on aggressive tackles can sometimes lead to disciplinary issues, as evidenced by Daniel Munoz’s red card in the semi-finals.

Key Player Performances

Lionel Messi (Argentina)

Messi has been instrumental in Argentina’s campaign, scoring crucial goals and providing assists. His record-breaking 109th international goal in the semi-final against Canada highlighted his enduring quality. Messi’s vision, dribbling, and set-piece expertise make him the focal point of Argentina’s attack.

Julian Alvarez (Argentina)

Alvarez has emerged as a key player, contributing with goals and assists. His partnership with Messi has been fruitful, and his ability to exploit spaces and get shots on target has added a new dimension to Argentina’s offence.

James Rodriguez (Colombia)

James Rodriguez has been the standout performer for Colombia, with his creativity and vision leading to six assists. His ability to dictate the tempo and deliver precise passes has been crucial in Colombia’s journey to the final.

Luis Diaz (Colombia)

Diaz has been a constant threat on the left wing, using his pace and dribbling skills to trouble defences. His ability to cut inside and shoot or deliver crosses makes him a versatile attacking option.

Managerial Impact

Lionel Scaloni (Argentina)

Scaloni has instilled a winning mentality in Argentina, guiding them to their 30th Copa America final. His tactical flexibility, especially in utilising Messi in various attacking roles, has paid dividends. Scaloni’s focus on a solid defensive structure while allowing creative freedom to his attackers has been a key factor in Argentina’s success.

Nestor Lorenzo (Colombia)

Lorenzo’s unbeaten run since taking over as Colombia’s head coach is commendable. His emphasis on defensive solidity and quick transitions has made Colombia a formidable opponent. However, his sometimes overly cautious approach can stifle Colombia’s attacking potential, as seen in their narrow 1-0 win over Uruguay despite being a man down.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Argentina have an xG of 1.6 goals per game, indicating their efficiency in creating and converting scoring opportunities. This is supported by their average of 14.4 shots per game, with 5.8 on target. In contrast, Colombia’s xG stands at 2.4 goals per game, reflecting their aggressive attacking style. They average 11.8 shots per game, with 4.6 on target, highlighting their proficiency in taking chances.

Comparative Overview

Tactics

Argentina’s tactics revolve around high possession (60.2%) and patient build-up play, focusing on short passes and creativity through Messi and Mac Allister. In contrast, Colombia’s 54% possession indicates a more balanced approach, with a greater emphasis on quick counter-attacks and exploiting wide areas through Diaz and Arias.

Player Performances

Messi’s leadership and goal-scoring ability give Argentina an edge in individual brilliance. However, Colombia’s collective attacking threat, led by James Rodriguez’s creativity and Diaz’s pace, poses a significant challenge to Argentina’s defence.

Overall Success

Argentina’s success is built on a solid defensive foundation, conceding only 0.2 goals per game, complemented by a potent attack. Colombia, with their higher goal-scoring rate, rely on their ability to outscore opponents, making their defensive discipline crucial in the final.

Suggestions for Improvement

Argentina

While Argentina’s defence has been robust, they need to improve their transition from defence to attack, ensuring quicker and more efficient counter-attacks. Integrating Lautaro Martinez more effectively into the starting lineup could provide additional firepower.

Colombia

Colombia need to maintain their defensive discipline and avoid unnecessary fouls that lead to suspensions. Enhancing their midfield control, especially in maintaining possession under pressure, will help them manage games better and create more sustained attacking opportunities.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Argentina’s Strengths

• Defensive Solidity: Conceding only one goal in the tournament highlights their defensive organisation.
• Messi’s Brilliance: His ability to create and score goals is unmatched.
• Experience: The team’s experience in high-stakes matches provides a psychological edge.

Argentina’s Weaknesses

• Reliance on Messi: Over-reliance on Messi can make them predictable.
• Lack of Pace in Defence: Their high line can be vulnerable to quick counter-attacks.

Colombia’s Strengths

• Attacking Prowess: A high goal-scoring rate with multiple threats.
• Resilience: Strong defensive performances under pressure.
• Set-Pieces: Effective in scoring from set-pieces, especially with Rodriguez’s delivery.

Colombia’s Weaknesses

• Disciplinary Issues: Aggressive play leading to cards and suspensions.
• Inconsistent Midfield Control: Struggle to maintain possession against high-pressing teams.

Managerial Critique

Lionel Scaloni

Scaloni has been praised for his tactical acumen and ability to get the best out of Messi. His decision to rotate players and keep the squad fresh has been effective. However, his conservative approach in certain matches can sometimes limit Argentina’s attacking potential.

Nestor Lorenzo

Lorenzo’s defensive organisation and unbeaten run are commendable. However, his tendency to adopt an overly cautious approach can be detrimental, stifling Colombia’s natural attacking flair. In high-stakes matches, this conservatism can lead to missed opportunities and unnecessary pressure on the defence.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Colombia to Win the Copa America

While Argentina have the advantage of historical success and a strong squad, Colombia’s recent form and resilience make them serious contenders. Colombia have been unbeaten in their last 28 matches, a testament to their consistency and tactical discipline. Under the guidance of Nestor Lorenzo, Colombia have developed a robust defensive structure coupled with an efficient attack.

Players like James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz have been outstanding, contributing significantly to their unbeaten streak. The tactical acumen and morale within the Colombian camp could provide the edge needed to topple the reigning champions, making this our best bet for the final.

2. Correct Score: Colombia 2-1 Argentina

Given Colombia’s formidable unbeaten run and tactical discipline, they have a strong chance of securing a victory. Argentina’s defensive solidity will be challenged by Colombia’s dynamic attack, led by James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz. With Colombia’s efficient counter-attacking style, they are likely to breach Argentina’s defence twice.

However, Argentina’s attacking prowess, especially with Messi, ensures they will get on the scoresheet. This prediction aligns with the best bet, suggesting a narrow victory for Colombia, reflecting their current form and tactical edge.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi remains Argentina’s most potent attacking threat. His record-breaking international career and current form in the tournament make him a strong candidate to score. Messi’s ability to find spaces and his precision in front of goal are unmatched. Additionally, his role as a set-piece specialist increases his chances of scoring from free-kicks or penalties.

Given the high stakes of the final, Messi will be more motivated than ever to make an impact, making him a reliable prediction for a goalscorer in this match.

4. Corner Prediction: Argentina to Win More Corners

Argentina’s offensive strategy often leads to a high number of corner kicks. With creative players like Di Maria and Messi, Argentina frequently push their opponents’ defences to clear the ball out of play. On average, Argentina have secured 5.6 corners per game in this tournament, demonstrating their dominance in the attacking third.

Colombia, while strong defensively, are less prolific in winning corners, averaging 3.8 per game. This disparity suggests Argentina will likely win more corners in the final, reflecting their sustained pressure and attacking intent.

5. Shots on Target: Julian Alvarez

Julian Alvarez has been a consistent performer for Argentina, regularly finding opportunities to test the opposition goalkeeper. His positioning and instinctive play make him a frequent shooter. In the semi-final, Alvarez scored and was involved in several key attacking moves, showcasing his ability to be in the right place at the right time.

Given his current form and Argentina’s attacking style, backing Alvarez to have at least one shot on target is a strong prediction. His eagerness to capitalise on any defensive lapses makes him a likely candidate to test the Colombian goalkeeper.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Jefferson Lerma

Jefferson Lerma’s aggressive playing style and his role as a midfield enforcer make him prone to receiving yellow cards. Lerma’s task will be to disrupt Argentina’s rhythm, particularly targeting key players like Messi and De Paul.

This defensive responsibility often results in tactical fouls to break up play. With the intensity and high stakes of a final, Lerma’s aggressive challenges are likely to draw the referee’s attention, increasing the likelihood of him receiving a yellow card. His disciplinary record in the tournament supports this prediction.

7. Assist Prediction: James Rodriguez

James Rodriguez has been the creative heartbeat for Colombia, leading the tournament in assists with six. His vision and ability to deliver precise passes in the attacking third make him a prime candidate to set up goals.

Rodriguez’s role as the main playmaker ensures that most of Colombia’s attacking moves flow through him. His ability to exploit spaces and deliver decisive balls to forwards like Jhon Cordoba will be crucial. Given his current form and importance to Colombia’s attack, predicting Rodriguez to provide an assist is well-founded.

8. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target – Argentina Over 5.5

Argentina’s attacking philosophy often results in a high volume of shots on target. With creative talents like Messi, Di Maria, and Alvarez leading the charge, Argentina consistently apply pressure on their opponents. They average 5.8 shots on target per game in this tournament, indicating their offensive efficiency.

Given the stakes of the final, Argentina are expected to be even more aggressive in their approach. Betting on Argentina to have over 5.5 shots on target aligns with their attacking trends and the quality of their forward players. This market offers value given their consistent performance in creating scoring opportunities.

Top UK Bookies & Best Sign Up Offers 

Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips

Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!