Argentina vs Canada predictions for this Copa America affair. In a rematch of the Copa America opener, Canada aim to become the second CONCACAF team to reach the final by defeating reigning champions Argentina on Tuesday at MetLife Stadium. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Copa America | Semi-Finals – Jul 10, 2024 at 1am UK at MetLife Stadium
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Argentina vs Canada Predictions
Can Canada Overcome Argentina’s Might in Copa America Semi-Final?
Key Stats
– Argentina have maintained three clean sheets in their last four matches.
– Canada have scored only 0.5 goals per game in this tournament.
– Lautaro Martinez has netted four goals in four matches, leading the Copa America scoring charts.
As Argentina prepare to face Canada in the semi-finals of the Copa America at MetLife Stadium, the stakes could not be higher. Both teams secured their spots in this crucial match via penalty shootouts, with Argentina narrowly defeating Ecuador and Canada edging out Venezuela. This matchup promises to be a fascinating contest between the reigning champions and a CONCACAF side eager to make history.
Team Analysis: Argentina
Argentina’s journey to the semi-finals has been marked by a blend of defensive solidity and offensive prowess. Under Lionel Scaloni’s guidance, they have shown an impressive ability to control games, boasting an average possession of 62.5% throughout the tournament. Their defence has been particularly noteworthy, conceding only one goal in four matches and maintaining three clean sheets.
The Argentine backline, featuring the likes of Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez, has been formidable, averaging 20.5 tackles and 8.3 interceptions per game. The team’s attacking thrust is equally potent, with Lautaro Martinez emerging as the top goalscorer with four goals. Supported by Lionel Messi, who has been instrumental in creating chances, Argentina have averaged 15.3 shots per game, with 6.5 on target.
Team Analysis: Canada
Canada’s path to the semi-finals has been one of resilience and strategic defensive play. After a shaky start, losing 2-0 to Argentina in the opening match, they have significantly tightened up at the back, conceding just one goal in their subsequent three games. Jesse Marsch’s side have shown remarkable improvement, highlighted by their solid defensive record.
The Canucks’ defence, led by Maxime Crepeau and Derek Cornelius, has been robust, with the team averaging 26.8 tackles and 6.8 interceptions per match. Offensively, Canada have struggled somewhat, managing only 0.5 goals per game. However, they have shown a knack for clutch performances, with Jonathan David and Jacob Shaffelburg each scoring critical goals.
Key Players and Expected Lineups
For Argentina, Emiliano Martinez will continue as the last line of defence, with Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, and Nicolas Tagliafico forming a solid back four. The midfield will likely feature Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, and Giovani Lo Celso, with Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez spearheading the attack.
Canada are expected to line up with Maxime Crepeau in goal, supported by a defence of Alistair Johnston, Moise Bombito, and Derek Cornelius. Alphonso Davies will be a key figure, offering pace and creativity from the left flank. Jonathan Osorio, Stephen Eustaquio, and Richie Laryea are set to anchor the midfield, with Jonathan David and Jacob Shaffelburg leading the line.
Argentina possible starting lineup: E. Martinez; Molina, Romero, Li. Martinez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister, Lo Celso, Gonzalez; Messi, La. Martinez
Canada possible starting lineup: Crepeau; Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Davies; Osorio, Eustaquio; Laryea, David, Shaffelburg; Larin
Tactical Breakdown and Key Duels
The battle in midfield will be crucial, with Argentina looking to dominate possession through the technical abilities of De Paul, Mac Allister, and Lo Celso. Canada’s midfielders, particularly Eustaquio and Osorio, will need to disrupt Argentina’s rhythm and prevent them from controlling the game.
A key duel will be between Lionel Messi and Alphonso Davies. Davies’ defensive responsibilities will be tested as he faces Messi’s dribbling and vision. Meanwhile, Lautaro Martinez versus Maxime Crepeau will be another intriguing matchup. Martinez’s predatory instincts in front of goal could be decisive against Crepeau, who has been a standout performer for Canada.
Expected Gameplay and Strategies
Argentina are likely to adopt a possession-based approach, looking to exploit spaces with quick, incisive passing. Their ability to switch play and utilise the wings, particularly through Messi and Gonzalez, will be pivotal. Defensively, they will aim to maintain their solid shape, forcing Canada to play through crowded central areas.
Canada, on the other hand, may focus on a more counter-attacking strategy. With the pace of Davies and the creativity of David, they could pose a threat on the break. Marsch’s men will need to be disciplined defensively, cutting off supply lines to Messi and Martinez while looking to capitalise on set-pieces and transitional moments.
Areas for Improvement and Critique
Argentina have shown occasional vulnerabilities in their semi-final performances, failing to keep clean sheets. Scaloni must ensure his team remain focused and avoid complacency. Additionally, their reliance on Messi for creative impetus could be a double-edged sword; diversifying their attacking threats would make them less predictable.
Canada’s primary area for improvement is their attacking output. Averaging just 0.5 goals per game is not enough at this level, and they need to be more clinical in front of goal. Furthermore, their defence, while improved, has moments of inconsistency that Argentina’s attackers could exploit.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Managers
Lionel Scaloni has demonstrated his tactical acumen by leading Argentina to consistent success. His ability to adapt strategies mid-game and manage a star-studded squad effectively is commendable. However, his tactical rigidity at times and over-reliance on Messi could be seen as potential drawbacks.
Jesse Marsch has been pivotal in Canada’s impressive run, instilling a sense of belief and resilience in his team. His defensive organisation and ability to get the best out of his players are noteworthy. Nevertheless, his lack of experience in handling high-stakes matches against top-tier opponents could be a limiting factor.
Predictions
Best Bet: Argentina -1 to Win
Argentina’s journey through the Copa America has been characterised by their defensive solidity and attacking prowess. The -1 handicap bet on Argentina to win is strongly supported by their recent performances. Lionel Scaloni’s team have conceded just one goal in four matches, demonstrating a defensive organisation that is difficult for any opposition to break down. Emiliano Martinez, in goal, has been pivotal in maintaining this defensive record, pulling off crucial saves when needed.
Offensively, Argentina’s attack is spearheaded by Lautaro Martinez and Lionel Messi. Lautaro, the tournament’s top scorer with four goals, has shown his clinical finishing ability, making him a constant threat. Messi, with his vision and playmaking skills, has been instrumental in creating numerous scoring opportunities. Argentina’s midfield, featuring Rodrigo De Paul and Alexis Mac Allister, ensures a steady supply of chances for their forwards. Given Canada’s defensive frailties, particularly against high-quality attacks, it is reasonable to expect Argentina to secure a comfortable victory, covering the -1 handicap.
Correct Score Prediction: Argentina 3-0 Canada
Predicting a 3-0 scoreline in favour of Argentina aligns well with their current form and defensive robustness. Argentina have demonstrated an ability to control games and limit their opponents’ scoring opportunities, conceding only one goal in four matches. This defensive strength, combined with their attacking efficiency, suggests a convincing win is on the cards.
Canada, despite their improved performances, have struggled to score, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. Their defensive structure, while improved, may not withstand the relentless pressure from Argentina’s attackers. Messi’s ability to unlock defences with his passing and Lautaro’s finishing touch are likely to be decisive. Additionally, Argentina’s supporting cast, including the likes of Nicolas Gonzalez and Giovani Lo Celso, can contribute to the scoreline. This balance of strong defence and potent attack justifies the prediction of a 3-0 victory for Argentina.
Goalscorer Prediction: Lautaro Martinez to Score Anytime
Lautaro Martinez has been in scintillating form throughout the Copa America, netting four goals in four matches. His sharpness and positioning in the box make him a consistent threat to any defence. Martinez’s partnership with Messi has flourished, with Messi often providing the crucial final pass that Lautaro converts with ease.
Canada’s defence, while improved, may struggle to contain Martinez’s movement and finishing ability. The Canadian backline has shown vulnerabilities, particularly against high-calibre forwards, and Lautaro’s current form suggests he will capitalise on any defensive lapses. His confidence and recent performances indicate that he is highly likely to find the back of the net again, making him a solid choice for anytime goalscorer.
Corner Prediction: Argentina to Win the Corner Count
Argentina’s attacking style and high possession rates naturally lead to a higher number of corners. They average 6.5 corners per game, significantly more than Canada’s 4. This statistical edge is due to Argentina’s ability to press high and maintain pressure in the opposition’s final third. Players like Messi and Gonzalez, who often take on defenders and deliver crosses, contribute to this high corner count.
Canada’s defensive approach, which is likely to involve soaking up pressure and attempting to hit on the counter, will result in Argentina spending more time in the attacking half. This will inevitably lead to more corners for Argentina as they push to break down the Canadian defence. Given these dynamics, Argentina are expected to win the corner count comfortably.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 6.5
Argentina’s offensive metrics strongly support a bet on over 6.5 total team shots on target. They average 6.5 shots on target per game in this tournament, indicating a potent and consistent attacking threat. With Messi pulling the strings in midfield and Lautaro Martinez’s sharpness in front of goal, Argentina frequently test the opposition goalkeeper.
Canada’s defence, while resilient, will be under significant pressure. Argentina’s ability to create chances through intricate play and individual brilliance will likely result in numerous shots on target. The presence of additional attacking threats like Nicolas Gonzalez and Giovani Lo Celso, who are capable of striking from distance, further supports this prediction. Therefore, betting on Argentina to have over 6.5 shots on target appears to be a sound strategy given their current form and attacking depth.
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