Almeria vs Cadiz predictions, betting tips and match previews for their La Liga clash. Relegated Almeria and Cadiz meet at Power Horse Stadium on Saturday evening, seeking to end disappointing campaigns positively. Read on for our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
La Liga | Gameweek 38 – May 25, 2024 at 5.30pm UK at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterraneos
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Almeria vs Cadiz Predictions
Goals Expected as Almeria and Cadiz Seek a Positive End to La Liga Season
Key Stats
– Almeria have conceded 74 goals this season, averaging two goals against per game.
– Cadiz have failed to win any of their last three matches but remain unbeaten in that period.
– Sergio Arribas is Almeria’s top scorer with seven goals this season.
As the curtains close on a challenging La Liga season, Almeria host Cadiz at the Power Horse Stadium on Saturday. Both teams, relegated to the Segunda Division, aim to end their disappointing campaigns on a positive note. This fixture offers a chance for these sides to provide their fans with a final glimpse of hope before they part ways with Spain’s top tier.
Form and Context
Almeria:
Almeria’s return to La Liga has been marked by struggles and underperformance. With only 18 points from 37 matches, they sit firmly at the bottom of the table. The Rojiblancos managed just two victories all season, failing to adapt to the demands of top-flight football. Their journey saw them secure a win against Las Palmas and another against Rayo Vallecano, but consistency eluded them throughout.
Recent matches have not been kind to Almeria. They suffered consecutive losses to Real Betis and Barcelona before drawing 2-2 with Mallorca, where goals from Sergio Arribas and Bruno Langa provided a semblance of fight. Despite these efforts, their inability to win at home remains a glaring issue. With only eight points secured from 18 home games, they will be eager to break this winless streak in their final home fixture.
Cadiz:
Cadiz, like their opponents, have had a season to forget. Sitting 18th with 33 points, their relegation was confirmed following a goalless draw with Las Palmas. The Yellow Submarine’s four-year stint in La Liga ends with a whimper, having failed to secure enough points to avoid the drop.
Mauricio Pellegrino’s appointment in January brought some stability, but it wasn’t enough to stave off relegation. His tenure saw Cadiz win crucial matches, but a lack of consistency, especially in away games, proved costly. With only nine points collected from 18 away fixtures, their form on the road has been a significant factor in their downfall.
Tactical Overview and Expected Lineups
Almeria:
- Goalkeeper: Martinez
- Defenders: Pozo, Radovanovic, Brandariz, Langa
- Midfielders: Gonzalez, Melero
- Forwards: Romero, Arribas, Centelles; Suarez
Almeria will likely adopt an attacking stance, aiming to exploit Cadiz’s defensive frailties. The absence of key defender Cesar Montes due to injury could be a setback, but the midfield creativity of Arribas and the forward threat of Suarez will be pivotal.
Cadiz:
- Goalkeeper: Ledesma
- Defenders: Zaldua, Fali, Carcelen, Hernandez
- Midfielders: Navarro, Escalante, Alcaraz, Sobrino
- Forwards: Juanmi, Ramos
Cadiz will rely on a balanced approach, focusing on maintaining defensive solidity while looking for opportunities on the counter-attack. The suspensions of Abdul Mumin and Oscar Valentin will force Perez to shuffle his lineup, but the experience of Fali and the attacking prowess of Ramos will be crucial.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be decisive, with Almeria’s Gonzalez and Melero pitted against Cadiz’s Escalante and Alcaraz. The creativity of Arribas for Almeria will be key in breaking down Cadiz’s defence, while Juanmi and Ramos will test Almeria’s backline. On the wings, Centelles and Sobrino’s duels could provide the width needed to stretch the opposition.
Gameplay Dynamics and Strategic Insights
Almeria:
Almeria are expected to adopt an aggressive approach, aiming to control possession and create scoring opportunities. Their reliance on Arribas for creativity and Suarez’s finishing ability will be central to their game plan. Defensively, they will need to remain vigilant against Cadiz’s counter-attacking threats.
Cadiz:
Cadiz will likely focus on a solid defensive setup, looking to hit Almeria on the break. The presence of experienced defenders like Fali and the midfield’s ability to disrupt Almeria’s play will be crucial. Offensively, they will depend on quick transitions and the finishing abilities of Ramos and Juanmi.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Almeria:
Strengths: Almeria’s attacking play, particularly through Arribas, has shown promise. Their ability to score, despite their low standing, highlights their offensive potential.
Weaknesses: Defensive lapses and a poor home record have plagued their season. Inconsistency and the inability to secure victories at home have been major issues.
Cadiz:
Strengths: Cadiz’s defensive discipline and ability to grind out results in tight matches are notable. Their midfield’s capacity to break up play and initiate counters is a strength.
Weaknesses: Lack of scoring opportunities and poor away form have been detrimental. Their inability to convert chances and defensive errors have led to their downfall.
Managerial Analysis
Pepe Mel: Mel’s tenure at Almeria has been marred by poor results and relegation. His tactical decisions and inability to turn around the team’s fortunes will be scrutinised. Improvement in home performances is necessary for any future success.
Mauricio Pellegrino: Pellegrino’s short stint at Cadiz showed some positive signs, but ultimately, his inability to secure the required points for survival speaks volumes. His tactical adjustments and defensive focus will need refinement moving forward.
Expected Goals Analysis and Betting Angles
Almeria:
Almeria’s xG (expected goals) of 1 per game indicates a moderate attacking threat. Their xGA (expected goals against) of 2 per game suggests significant defensive vulnerabilities. Leveraging set-pieces and quick offensive transitions will be key.
Cadiz:
Cadiz’s xG of 0.7 per game highlights their struggles in front of goal, while their xGA of 1.3 reflects defensive stability. Utilising their counter-attacking capabilities and maintaining a solid defensive structure will be crucial.
Predictions
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Given both teams’ defensive frailties and the absence of pressure, this match is likely to see multiple goals. Both sides will be eager to end on a high, leading to an open and attacking game.
Correct Score: Almeria 2-2 Cadiz
Both teams’ inability to maintain defensive solidity suggests a high-scoring draw. Almeria’s quest for a home win and Cadiz’s counter-attacking potential make a 2-2 draw a plausible outcome.
Goalscorer: Sergio Arribas to Score
Arribas has been a standout performer for Almeria. His creative play and goal-scoring ability make him a strong candidate to find the net against Cadiz.
Corner Prediction: Almeria to Win More Corners
Almeria’s attacking intent, combined with Cadiz’s defensive approach, is likely to see the home side win more corners. Predicting a total of over 10 corners in the match offers good value.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target (Almeria Over 6)
Almeria’s need for a win and their attacking setup suggest they will have multiple attempts on goal. Betting on over six shots on target for Almeria is a market with strong rationale.
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