Almeria vs Barcelona Predictions

Almeria vs Barcelona predictions for this La Liga clash. Barcelona seeks win at Almeria to secure La Liga runners-up spot, after losing title to Real Madrid. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.


La Liga  | Gameweek 36 – May 16, 2024 at 8:30pm UK at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

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Almeria vs Barcelona Predictions

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Barcelona Aim to Secure Second Place with Win at Relegated Almeria

Key Stats

– Barcelona have scored 72 goals this season, averaging 2.1 goals per game.

– Almeria have conceded 70 goals, the second-highest in La Liga this season.

– Robert Lewandowski has netted 17 goals for Barcelona, making him their top scorer.

As the La Liga season draws to a close, Barcelona face relegated Almeria at the Power Horse Stadium on Thursday. With both teams having distinct objectives, this match holds significance for the visitors who are vying to secure the runners-up position behind Real Madrid. Almeria, already confirmed for relegation, will be playing for pride and to give their fans a positive send-off in their final home game of the season.

Match Preview

Barcelona enter this match following a season of missed opportunities and underwhelming performances. With no silverware to show and a disappointing exit from the Champions League, Xavi Hernandez’s side has only the pride of finishing second in La Liga to play for. Despite their inconsistent form, Barcelona have managed to maintain a slender lead over Girona and need to win their remaining fixtures to avoid a potentially embarrassing third-place finish.

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Almeria, on the other hand, have had a tumultuous season. After a strong promotion campaign, they struggled to adapt to the rigours of La Liga. Despite a mid-season managerial change that saw Pepe Mel take over, the team could not avoid the drop. With just three wins and numerous defensive issues, Almeria’s return to the Segunda Division was confirmed early, and they now seek to end their campaign on a positive note.

Team News

Almeria: Pepe Mel will be without key players Leo Baptistao and Largie Ramazani due to suspensions. This will force a reshuffle in the attack, with the team relying heavily on Sergio Arribas and Luis Javier Suárez to provide the offensive threat.

Barcelona: Xavi Hernandez will have to cope without Frenkie de Jong, Alejandro Balde, and Gavi, all out for the rest of the season. Ilkay Gundogan also misses out due to suspension. The focus will be on youngsters like Lamine Yamal, who has impressed recently, to step up in their absence.

Expected Lineups

Almeria: Luís Maximiano; Marc Pubill, Aleksandar Radovanović, Srđan Babić, Sergio Akieme; Jonathan Viera, Lucas Robertone, Dion Lopy; Adrián Embarba, Luis Javier Suárez, Sergio Arribas.

Barcelona: Marc-André ter Stegen; João Cancelo, Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Marcos Alonso; Oriol Romeu, Pedri, Fermín López; Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the flow of the game. Almeria’s Lucas Robertone will be tasked with disrupting Barcelona’s rhythm, particularly focusing on limiting the impact of Pedri and Fermín López. In attack, the duel between Almeria’s Luis Javier Suárez and Barcelona’s Ronald Araújo will be pivotal. Suárez’s physical presence and Araújo’s defensive acumen will make for an intriguing matchup.

Gameplay Analysis

Barcelona are likely to dominate possession, leveraging their high ball possession rate (64.5%) and accurate passing (88.4%). Their focus will be on breaking down Almeria’s defence through intricate play and quick transitions. Almeria, with a lower possession rate (46.4%) and more direct style, will rely on counter-attacks and set-pieces to create scoring opportunities. Their success will hinge on exploiting any defensive lapses from Barcelona, who have conceded 43 goals this season.

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Strengths and Weaknesses


  • Strengths: Resilient counter-attacks, motivated by playing for pride, and potential unpredictability in attack.
  • Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, inability to hold leads, and limited squad depth due to suspensions.


  • Strengths: Dominant possession play, creative midfield, and individual brilliance in attack.
  • Weaknesses: Defensive inconsistency, reliance on young players to step up, and away form concerns.

Managerial Analysis

Pepe Mel has tried to instill a fighting spirit in his team, but the tactical limitations and lack of squad depth have hindered Almeria’s progress. His challenge will be to motivate his players for a strong finish despite the inevitable relegation. In contrast, Xavi Hernandez has faced criticism for his inability to replicate Barcelona’s past glories. His tactical decisions and squad management have been questioned, and this match is an opportunity to show that he can lead the team to a solid finish in a challenging season.

Expected Goals Analysis

Almeria’s average of 1 goal per game is a clear indication of their struggles in front of goal. With a lower expected goals (xG) figure, their inefficiency in converting chances has been a major issue. Barcelona, averaging 2.1 goals per game, have a higher xG, reflecting their ability to create and convert more high-quality scoring opportunities. The contrast in offensive capabilities is stark and could be decisive in this match.

Betting Angles

Several trends can be identified from the data:

  1. Almeria’s Defensive Struggles: With 70 goals conceded, Almeria’s defensive weaknesses present a clear opportunity for Barcelona to exploit.
  2. Barcelona’s Dominance: Despite their struggles, Barcelona’s ability to dominate possession and create chances makes them favourites.
  3. Low Scoring Trend: Both teams have a history of low-scoring encounters, suggesting a cautious approach may be expected.



Best Bet: Barcelona -2 to Win

Barcelona’s superior quality, combined with Almeria’s defensive issues and lack of motivation due to relegation, makes the visitors strong favourites. Barcelona’s attacking prowess, even without key players, should be enough to secure a decisive victory against an Almeria side that has struggled throughout the season.

Correct Score Prediction: Almeria 0-3 Barcelona

Given Barcelona’s need to secure second place and their attacking depth, a 3-0 win is a realistic outcome. Almeria’s defensive frailties and lack of key attacking options due to suspensions make it difficult to see them scoring. Barcelona’s quality in the final third should see them netting multiple goals.

Goalscorer Prediction: Robert Lewandowski to Score Anytime

Lewandowski has been Barcelona’s leading scorer this season with 17 goals. His experience and positioning make him a constant threat, especially against a defensively weak Almeria side. Expect Lewandowski to find the net, continuing his fine goal-scoring form.

Which Team Will Score First: Barcelona

Barcelona are likely to score first, given their attacking strength and Almeria’s defensive vulnerabilities. With 72 goals scored this season, Barcelona’s ability to start strongly will likely see them take the lead early in the match.

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Gerard Gabasa
Gerard Gabasa is our go-to football expert for all things Spanish. His passion for the game is evident in every analysis he offers. Having played professionally with Málaga's youth team, Gerard blends firsthand experience with deep insights. While he didn't ascend to the senior ranks, this stint enriched his understanding of the game's nuances. Over the years, Gerard has crafted in-depth match analyses and player evaluations that showcase his profound knowledge. With Gerard, expect a seasoned perspective on Spanish football every time.