Albania vs Spain Predictions

Albania vs Spain predictions and betting tips ahead of this Euro 2024 encounter. Spain, already Group B winners, face Albania, aiming for last-16 qualification, at the Merkur Spiel-Arena on Monday night. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 24, 2024 at 8pm UK at Merkur Spiel-Arena

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Albania vs Spain Predictions

Can Albania Pull Off a Shock Against Group Leaders Spain?

The stage is set at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Germany for an intriguing Euro 2024 Group B encounter between group winners Spain and an ambitious Albania side still eyeing last-16 qualification. Spain have already secured their place in the knockout stages with a perfect record, while Albania, despite a roller-coaster campaign, can still progress with a victory and favourable results elsewhere. This match promises a blend of tactical acumen, resilience, and attacking flair.

Match Preview

Spain have been imperious in the group stages, dispatching reigning champions Italy and Croatia without conceding a single goal. Their defence, marshalled by experienced figures like Aymeric Laporte, has been unyielding, and their attack clinical, underlining their credentials as serious contenders for the title. Luis de la Fuente’s men have scored four goals and kept two clean sheets, reflecting their dominance and tactical discipline.

Albania’s journey, on the other hand, has been dramatic. They showed resilience by fighting back to draw 2-2 with Croatia, thanks to a last-gasp equaliser from Klaus Gjasula, who had earlier scored an own goal. Despite their defensive frailties, Albania’s attacking intent has been evident, with goals from Qazim Laci and contributions from their creative midfield.

Team Analysis

Spain Spain’s performance in the tournament so far has been characterised by their robust defence and fluid attack. With top spot in the group secured, De la Fuente is likely to rotate his squad to keep his key players fresh for the knockout rounds. The absence of Rodri due to suspension is a significant blow, but it offers an opportunity for Martin Zubimendi to showcase his talents in midfield. Other potential changes include starts for Ferran Torres, Mikel Oyarzabal, and veteran Jesus Navas.

Expected Spain starting lineup: Raya; Navas, Vivian, Laporte, Grimaldo; Merino, Zubimendi, Baena; Torres, Joselu, Oyarzabal.

Albania Albania have no significant injury concerns and are expected to field the same XI that started against Croatia. Sylvinho’s side must balance their attacking ambitions with defensive solidity to stand a chance against Spain. Key players include Rey Manaj, who leads the line, and midfielders Asllani and Ramadani, who will be crucial in both defence and attack.

Expected Albania starting lineup: Strakosha; Hysaj, Ajeti, Djimsiti, Mitaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Asani, Laci, Bajrami; Manaj.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Spain’s Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Spain have demonstrated an impeccable balance of offensive prowess and defensive solidity in Euro 2024. Offensively, they employ a high-pressing game that relies on quick, intricate passing to create scoring opportunities. The midfield, orchestrated by the likes of Martin Zubimendi and Mikel Merino, controls the tempo, ensuring a steady supply of chances for the forwards. Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal have been key in this setup, using their pace and creativity to stretch defences and create scoring opportunities.

Defensively, Spain have adopted a disciplined approach, maintaining a high line to press opponents and recover possession quickly. Aymeric Laporte and the likely inclusion of Vivian in the centre-back roles ensure a strong defensive presence. With Rodri suspended, Zubimendi is expected to take on the role of shielding the defence, disrupting the opposition’s attacks early.

Albania’s Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Albania, under Sylvinho, have shown a blend of resilience and directness. Offensively, they rely heavily on quick transitions and the ability to exploit spaces left by the opposition. Players like Kristjan Asllani and Nedim Bajrami have been pivotal, driving forward from midfield and creating chances for the likes of Rey Manaj. Their willingness to press and attack has yielded goals against strong teams like Croatia and Italy.

Defensively, Albania’s strategy focuses on a compact, organised backline, with Berat Djimsiti and Arlind Ajeti crucial in maintaining this structure. Despite this, their defensive record has been less than perfect, with lapses leading to goals conceded. The midfield duo of Ylber Ramadani and Klaus Gjasula plays a crucial role in breaking up opposition play, but their aggressive approach sometimes leaves gaps that more clinical teams can exploit.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Spain

Ferran Torres has been a standout performer for Spain, his ability to cut inside from the wings and his clinical finishing making him a constant threat. His partnership with Mikel Oyarzabal, who adds creativity and pace, has been instrumental in Spain’s attacking play. Martin Zubimendi’s role as a deep-lying playmaker is crucial, especially with Rodri suspended. His ability to distribute the ball and break up play will be tested against Albania.

Albania

For Albania, Klaus Gjasula’s performances have been a mixed bag; his own goal against Croatia was a low point, but his late equaliser showed resilience and determination. Nedim Bajrami has been a key creative force, providing goals and assists that have kept Albania’s hopes alive. Rey Manaj’s ability to lead the line and hold up play has also been crucial, giving Albania a focal point in attack.

Management Impact on Style of Play and Performance

Spain

Luis de la Fuente’s management has been crucial in Spain’s success. His tactical acumen, particularly in maintaining balance between attack and defence, has been evident. De la Fuente’s decision to rotate the squad has kept key players fresh and given opportunities to fringe players, maintaining high performance levels. His ability to adapt tactics based on opponents has made Spain a formidable side.

Albania

Sylvinho’s impact on Albania has been significant, instilling a sense of belief and resilience in his squad. His tactical flexibility, shifting between defensive solidity and attacking directness, has kept opponents guessing. However, his aggressive style sometimes leaves Albania vulnerable at the back, a point of criticism that could be addressed with a more balanced approach.

Expected Goals Analysis

Spain’s expected goals (xG) statistics reflect their dominance, with an average of 3.1 goals per game. Their ability to create high-quality chances consistently has been key, driven by the creative midfield and clinical forwards. In contrast, Albania’s xG of 1.5 per game shows their capability to create chances, though their conversion rate and defensive lapses have been problematic.

Tactical and Player Performance Comparison

Tactically, Spain’s high-pressing, possession-based game contrasts with Albania’s more direct approach. Spain’s superior ball retention and chance creation stem from their strong midfield and versatile attack, whereas Albania’s strategy relies on quick transitions and exploiting spaces. In terms of individual performances, Spain’s players like Ferran Torres and Martin Zubimendi have shown greater consistency and impact compared to Albania’s key players like Klaus Gjasula and Nedim Bajrami.

Suggestions for Improvement

Spain

While Spain have been impressive, there is room for improvement in terms of defensive transitions. Ensuring swift recovery and positioning after losing possession can further strengthen their defence. Additionally, rotating the squad while maintaining tactical coherence will be crucial as they progress in the tournament.

Albania

For Albania, improving defensive discipline is paramount. Reducing individual errors and maintaining a compact shape against stronger teams will be vital. Enhancing their finishing ability, converting more of their chances, and perhaps adopting a more cautious approach in defence could balance their aggressive style.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Spain

Spain’s strengths lie in their high press, ball control, and versatility in attack. Their weaknesses include potential vulnerability in defensive transitions and reliance on key players like Rodri, whose absence could be felt.

Albania

Albania’s strengths are their resilience, quick transitions, and ability to score against top teams. Their weaknesses are defensive lapses, aggressive tactics leading to gaps, and inconsistent individual performances.

Managerial Strengths and Criticism

Luis de la Fuente

De la Fuente’s strengths include tactical flexibility, squad rotation, and maintaining high performance levels. However, he can be criticised for over-reliance on key players and potential vulnerability in defensive transitions. His pragmatic approach sometimes lacks flair, which could be detrimental against top-tier teams.

Sylvinho

Sylvinho’s management has brought resilience and attacking intent to Albania. However, his aggressive tactics often leave the team exposed defensively. Critics argue that a more balanced approach could yield better results, especially against stronger opposition. His decision-making under pressure has also been questioned, particularly in maintaining defensive discipline.

Predictions

Best Bet: Spain -2 to Win

Spain are expected to secure a decisive victory over Albania, and backing them to win with a -2 handicap seems a solid bet. Spain’s dominance in the tournament so far, with six points from two matches and no goals conceded, underscores their strength. Even with potential squad rotation, the depth and quality of Spain’s squad ensure they remain formidable. Players like Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal, who might come into the starting lineup, have proven their capability at the highest level.

Albania, while resilient, have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding four goals in two matches. Spain’s attacking prowess, combined with Albania’s defensive lapses, makes a comprehensive victory for La Roja highly probable. The -2 handicap bet accounts for Spain’s superior goal-scoring ability and the likelihood of Albania struggling to contain their relentless attack.

Correct Score Prediction: Spain 3-0 Albania

Given Spain’s form and Albania’s defensive challenges, a 3-0 scoreline in favour of Spain appears likely. Spain’s attack has been clinical, netting four goals in two matches, while their defence has remained unbreachable. Albania, conversely, have conceded twice in each of their games, highlighting their defensive frailties.

The absence of key players for Spain might lead to a slightly less fluid performance, but the incoming players will be eager to impress, maintaining the team’s high standards. Spain’s ability to control possession and create numerous scoring opportunities suggests they will find the back of the net multiple times. Meanwhile, Albania’s struggles against top-tier opposition point towards a difficult evening, making a 3-0 result a plausible outcome.

Goalscorer Prediction: Ferran Torres to Score

Ferran Torres is an excellent choice to find the net against Albania. Torres has demonstrated his goal-scoring prowess at both club and international levels. His movement off the ball, combined with his sharp finishing, makes him a constant threat. In a game where Spain are likely to dominate possession and create multiple chances, Torres’s ability to exploit defensive gaps will be crucial.

Albania’s defence, which has already shown signs of vulnerability, will find it challenging to contain a player of Torres’s calibre. His knack for being in the right place at the right time enhances his chances of scoring, especially given Spain’s attacking style and the quality of service he will receive from midfield.

Corner Prediction: Spain to Win Most Corners

Spain’s attacking style and possession-based approach naturally lead to numerous corner opportunities. On average, Spain have earned 6.9 corners per game in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, reflecting their consistent pressure in the attacking third. Against an Albanian side likely to sit back and defend, Spain’s dominance in possession will result in frequent forays into the opposition’s penalty area, generating corner kicks.

Albania, by contrast, have averaged only 2.6 corners per game, highlighting their more conservative and counter-attacking approach. The disparity in these statistics strongly suggests that Spain will win the corner count comfortably, reinforcing the prediction that Spain will win most corners in this match.

Shot on Target Prediction: Joselu to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Joselu is a prime candidate to register at least one shot on target against Albania. Known for his physical presence and aerial ability, Joselu excels in positioning himself to receive crosses and through balls. Spain’s style of play, which emphasises width and crossing, suits Joselu’s strengths perfectly.

Given the likelihood of Spain dominating possession and creating numerous chances, Joselu will have ample opportunities to test the Albanian goalkeeper. His recent performances have shown his capability to get into goal-scoring positions and convert those chances into shots on target. Albania’s defensive vulnerabilities further increase the probability of Joselu making his mark in this game.

Yellow Card Prediction: Klaus Gjasula to be Booked

Klaus Gjasula’s aggressive style of play makes him a strong candidate for a booking. Gjasula, who plays a pivotal role in Albania’s midfield, is tasked with breaking up the opposition’s play, often resorting to physical challenges.

His propensity for committing fouls, coupled with his previous disciplinary record, indicates a high likelihood of receiving a yellow card. In a match where Albania will be under significant pressure from Spain’s attacking movements, Gjasula’s defensive responsibilities will increase, leading to more fouls. The intense nature of the game and the need to disrupt Spain’s rhythm will likely see Gjasula’s name in the referee’s book.

Assist Prediction: Alejandro Baena to Assist

Alejandro Baena’s vision and passing accuracy make him a strong contender to provide an assist against Albania. Baena has consistently demonstrated his ability to unlock defences with precise through balls and crosses. His role in the midfield allows him to dictate play and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.

In a match where Spain are expected to dominate possession, Baena will have numerous chances to deliver key passes into dangerous areas. Albania’s defensive vulnerabilities will provide Baena with the perfect platform to showcase his playmaking skills. His ability to find space and deliver accurate passes will be instrumental in Spain’s attacking strategy, making an assist from Baena highly probable.

Innovative Market Prediction: Time of First Set Piece Awarded

Predicting the time of the first set piece awarded offers an interesting betting angle. Given Spain’s aggressive attacking style and Albania’s defensive approach, the first set piece (whether it be a corner, free kick, or throw-in) is likely to occur early in the match. Spain’s high pressing and quick passing game often force the opposition into defensive actions, leading to set pieces.

Considering Spain’s dominance in possession and their tendency to push forward from the outset, it is reasonable to expect the first set piece to be awarded within the first 15 minutes. This early pressure from Spain will likely result in an Albanian defender conceding a corner or committing a foul in a dangerous area, making this an intriguing and potentially profitable market to explore.

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