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Alaves vs Valencia predictions for This La Liga. Monday night lights at Mendizorrotza Stadium will witness two La Liga sides heading in opposite emotional directions. Read on for all our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
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Context leans Alaves: mid-table stability, two home wins, and momentum from a 3–1 Elche victory. Valencia’s travel woes persist, eleven conceded away, and injuries to Mouctar Diakhaby, Largie Ramazani and Filip Urgrinic reduce resilience. Facundo Garcés returns, Carlos Vicente drives threat. Territorial control and transitions should tilt the ninety tonight.
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Game state suggests a narrow home success. Alaves are organised at Mendizorroza, while Valencia’s back line buckles under pressure. Carlos Vicente’s direct running creates the opener; Los Che respond through a counter. Fresh legs and crowd energy decide late, delivering a composed finish: Alaves 2–1 Valencia, margins managed smartly.
Alaves vs Valencia Predictions and Best Bets
- Home Comforts Count: Alaves have avoided defeat in seven of their last eight home games, showing why Mendizorrotza remains a tough ground for visitors.
- Leaky Travellers: Valencia have conceded 11 goals in their four La Liga away matches this season, the second-worst record among bottom-half teams.
- Creative Edge: Carlos Vicente has scored three times for Alaves already this campaign, highlighting his growing importance in their attacking framework.
Can Alaves Keep Their Home Fortress Intact Against a Fragile Valencia?
Alaves, perched in 10th with 11 points from eight matches, are quietly building confidence after a turbulent start, while Valencia’s struggles continue to pile up, sitting 15th with just eight points and a worrying lack of defensive cohesion. This fixture feels like a meeting of two teams with the same goal — mid-table stability — but entirely different levels of belief.
Eduardo Coudet’s men enter this one on the back of a morale-boosting 3-1 home win against Elche, their first victory in several weeks and one that reminded fans in Vitoria just how lively Mendizorrotza can be when Alaves are on song. Two of their three league wins have come on home soil, a sign that this team thrive in familiar surroundings.
For Valencia, it’s been a painful few weeks. Defeats to Girona and Real Oviedo have knocked the air out of a promising start, and the numbers are damning — 14 goals shipped in just eight league matches. They’ve been poor travellers too, struggling to impose themselves and leaking an alarming 11 goals on the road. For a club with their pedigree, that’s simply not good enough.
BettingTips4You Best Bet: Alaves to Win
Here at BettingTips4You, we don’t bombard readers with a list of risky punts — instead, we focus on precision and accountability. Our analysts dig deep into performance data, tactical setups, and player availability to select a single Best Bet for every game. For this La Liga clash, the top choice is Alaves to win, a prediction that balances value and probability better than any alternative on the board.
Why This Prediction Makes Sense
On paper, this might look closer than it feels in reality. Alaves have been quietly efficient at home — seven wins or draws in their last eight matches in Vitoria — and are showing signs of a tactical identity under Coudet. They press high in phases, control transitions better than they did last season, and seem to have rediscovered confidence in front of their fans. The return of Facundo Garces from suspension adds bite to the backline, while Carlos Vicente’s energy and directness on the flank have made him one of the most influential players in their attack, contributing three goals already this term.
Valencia, in contrast, look like a side stuck in limbo. Their expected goals against (xGA) figures highlight a team consistently on the back foot, and the recent defeats underline how quickly their defensive structure collapses under pressure. With Mouctar Diakhaby and Largie Ramazani both sidelined and Filip Urgrinic likely missing, their options are thin. The backline feels brittle, and without the right midfield cover, they are often exposed to simple passes in behind.
Up front, the likes of Hugo Duro and Arnaut Danjuma have worked hard, but the service has been erratic. The creative flow that once defined Valencia’s play has fizzled, leaving them reliant on moments of individual brilliance rather than a coherent attacking system.
Meanwhile, Alaves’ midfield trio of Blanco, Ibanez, and Rebbach provide balance and control, recycling possession smartly and allowing their wide men to exploit space. Their home record speaks volumes — they’ve taken down stronger opponents before, and Valencia’s current defensive form suggests they could be next on the list.
As BettingTips4You.com expert Gerard Gabasa summed up perfectly:
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“When you look at the trends, Alaves are compact, organised, and confident. Valencia’s body language says fatigue and frustration, and that’s dangerous when you visit a ground like Mendizorrotza.”
All signs point toward a home win. Valencia’s road form is miserable, their defensive confidence is fragile, and Alaves have the tactical stability to punish their lapses. Expect a professional, controlled performance from the Basques.
Our correct score prediction: Alaves 2–1 Valencia. The visitors may sneak a goal through a moment of flair, but the home side’s structure and crowd lift should make the difference.
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