Alaves vs Granada Predictions

Alaves vs Granada predictions for Friday’s La Liga affair. Recently, the Basque team experienced a mix of results. They secured a home victory against Almeria but faced defeats on the road against both Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. Read on for our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.

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Match Live Friday, 24th November at 8:00 pm In:
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Alaves vs Granada Predictions

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Defensive Resilience Meets Offensive Struggle

Key Stats
– Alaves have secured three wins in six home games, two being 1-0 victories.
– Granada have struggled away, taking only one point from six away games.
– Samuel Omorodion, Alaves’ forward, has scored four goals in five La Liga starts.

As Alaves prepares to host Granada in a crucial La Liga encounter, the stakes are high for both teams. Alaves, showing resilience at home, face a Granada side desperate to overturn their dismal away form.

Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match


£20 Returns £150

Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

Best Value Bet Rationale
In the upcoming La Liga encounter between Alaves and Granada, a compelling betting opportunity presents itself in the form of Samuel Aghehowa Omorodion achieving over 1.5 shots on target, currently offered at odds of 7/4, boosted from 13/8 by Bet365 (odds subject to change, T&C’s apply). This prediction is grounded in a detailed analysis of Omorodion’s recent performances and Granada’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Samuel Omorodion, since his loan move to Alaves, has shown remarkable form, scoring four goals in five starts. His attacking prowess is further highlighted by an average of 2.2 shots per game and 0.8 shots on target per game. Notably, Omorodion’s expected goals (xG) stand at 5.55, indicating a propensity to be in goal-scoring positions and take shots. His recent performance against Barcelona, where he found the net, underscores his growing confidence and ability to challenge even the sturdiest of defences.
Granada, on the other hand, has been struggling, especially in away games. They have conceded 30 goals in 13 matches, averaging over two goals conceded per game. This defensive frailty, combined with their overall poor form (ranked 20th with an average rating of 6.69), suggests that Alaves, and particularly Omorodion, will have opportunities to create significant goal threats.

Given Omorodion’s current form and Granada’s defensive woes, it’s reasonable to expect him to have multiple shots on target in this match. The odds of 7/4 for this outcome, especially with the boost from Bet365, represent a value bet, combining a high probability of occurrence with an attractive return. This bet not only reflects Omorodion’s individual capabilities but also considers the broader context of the match, where Alaves are expected to exploit Granada’s defensive shortcomings.

Alaves: Finding Strength at Home

Under Luis Garcia’s stewardship, Alaves have carved out a niche for themselves, especially in their home fixtures. Their strategy has been predominantly focused on a robust defensive setup, as evidenced by their two 1-0 victories at home. The team’s average rating of 6.80 in La Liga reflects a solid, if not spectacular, performance, with their defensive resilience being a key aspect. Samuel Omorodion’s emergence as a goal threat, with four goals in five starts, has added much-needed potency to their attack.


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Granada: The Away-Day Blues

Granada, currently under Paco Lopez, face a stark contrast in fortunes. Their away form has been concerning, with just one point from six away games. This poor run includes a lack of goals and defensive lapses, as highlighted by their average rating of 6.69 – the lowest in La Liga. Their tactical approach, which seems to falter in away games, requires a significant overhaul to change their fortunes.

Tactical Battle: Garcia vs Lopez

Garcia’s Alaves have shown an ability to grind out results at home, often relying on tight defending and opportunistic scoring. Lopez’s Granada, meanwhile, need to find a way to bolster their attacking prowess while shoring up a leaky defence.

Key Areas and Player Duels:

The midfield battle will be crucial, with Alaves likely to control the game at home. Key duels will include Alaves’ Luis Rioja against Granada’s Bryan Zaragoza, potentially deciding the game’s tempo.

Team Improvements and Strategies:

  • Alaves: Need more creativity in attack to complement their solid defence.
  • Granada: Must address their defensive frailties and find consistency in their forward play.

Managerial Insight: Strengths and Criticisms:

  • Luis Garcia (Alaves): Praised for defensive organization but needs to inject more attacking flair.
  • Paco Lopez (Granada): Criticized for the team’s poor away form and lack of tactical adaptability.

Our Take: Controversial Yet Insightful

  • Alaves’ Over-Reliance on Defence: While their defensive strategy works, a lack of goals could be their undoing in crucial matches.
  • Granada’s Tactical Stalemate: Lopez’s inability to adapt tactics for away games is a major concern.

Our Preview: Match Outcome

Given the current form and tactical setups, Alaves seem poised to edge out Granada in a close encounter. The match is likely to be decided by a single goal, with Alaves leveraging their home advantage and Granada continuing to struggle on the road.

Predictions and Match Dynamics:

  1. Win-Draw-Win Market: Alaves to Win
    • Alaves’ strong home form against Granada’s poor away record tilts the prediction in Alaves’ favour.
  2. Correct Score Prediction: Alaves 1-0 Granada
    • Alaves’ two 1-0 home wins and Granada’s struggles to score away suggest a narrow victory for Alaves.
  3. Goalscorer Prediction: Samuel Omorodion
    • Given his form, Omorodion is likely to score, potentially the only goal of the match.
  4. Corner Prediction: More Corners for Alaves; Total Corners: Over 8
    • Alaves’ attacking play at home should yield more corners, with both teams contributing to the tally.
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Gerard Gabasa
Gerard Gabasa is our go-to football expert for all things Spanish. His passion for the game is evident in every analysis he offers. Having played professionally with Málaga's youth team, Gerard blends firsthand experience with deep insights. While he didn't ascend to the senior ranks, this stint enriched his understanding of the game's nuances. Over the years, Gerard has crafted in-depth match analyses and player evaluations that showcase his profound knowledge. With Gerard, expect a seasoned perspective on Spanish football every time.