Ajax vs Panathinaikos Predictions

Ajax vs Panathinaikos predictions ahead of this clash in Europa League qualifying. Ajax, holding a one-goal lead from the first leg, host Panathinaikos on Thursday, aiming to secure their spot in the Europa League playoffs. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | Aug 15, 2024 at 7.15pm UK at John Cruyff Arena

Ajax vs Panathinaikos Predictions

[wptb id=419684]

Will Ajax’s Defensive Solidity Be Enough to Secure Europa League Playoff Spot?

Ajax head into their crucial Europa League qualifying clash against Panathinaikos with a slender one-goal advantage, having triumphed in Athens last week. As they prepare to host the Greek side at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, the Dutch giants are in the driver’s seat, yet the tie remains finely balanced. With a place in the Europa League playoffs on the line, this encounter promises to be a test of nerves and tactical acumen.

Ajax’s Resurgence Under Farioli

Ajax have started the new season in fine form, with the arrival of Francesco Farioli as head coach seemingly revitalising a side that had endured a turbulent previous campaign. The Italian’s influence has been evident, guiding Ajax to four consecutive wins in all competitions, including the narrow but crucial 1-0 victory over Panathinaikos in the first leg. This strong start has been underpinned by a solid defensive structure, a hallmark of Farioli’s teams, as evidenced by the three clean sheets they have kept in their four competitive matches so far.

The challenge for Ajax will be to maintain this defensive discipline while also finding the cutting edge required to put the tie beyond doubt. The Amsterdam side have been methodical in their approach, relying on patient build-up play and capitalising on moments of individual brilliance. This was exemplified in Athens, where Steven Berghuis’s first-half strike proved decisive. With the return leg in Amsterdam, Ajax will likely adopt a similar strategy, focusing on controlling the tempo of the game and exploiting any defensive lapses from their Greek opponents.

Panathinaikos’s Uphill Battle

Panathinaikos, on the other hand, face an uphill battle as they seek to overturn the one-goal deficit. Despite dominating certain phases of the first leg, they failed to convert their chances, with Anastasios Bakasetas hitting the crossbar and Alexander Jeremejeff missing a golden opportunity to equalise. The Greek side will need to be more clinical in front of goal if they are to have any hope of progressing.

Under the guidance of Diego Alonso, Panathinaikos have shown glimpses of their potential, particularly in their resounding 6-1 aggregate victory over Botev Plovdiv in the previous round. However, their performance in Athens raised questions about their ability to compete at this level. Alonso’s men were largely restricted to speculative efforts from distance, and they will need to find a way to break down a well-organised Ajax defence that has looked impenetrable in recent matches.

The Greek side’s strategy is likely to revolve around pressing Ajax high up the pitch, aiming to disrupt their rhythm and force errors. Alonso may also look to the physical presence of Jeremejeff and the creativity of Bakasetas to unlock the Dutch defence. However, without a significant improvement in their attacking efficiency, Panathinaikos could find themselves frustrated once again.

Key Areas of the Field and Tactical Duels

This match is likely to be decided in the midfield, where Ajax’s young and dynamic duo of Kian Fitz-Jim and Kenneth Taylor will face off against the experienced Panathinaikos midfield led by Adam Gnezda Cerin. The battle for control in this area will be crucial, as both teams will look to establish dominance and dictate the tempo. Fitz-Jim, who set up the only goal in the first leg, will be pivotal in linking defence and attack for Ajax, while Cerin’s role as a deep-lying playmaker will be essential for Panathinaikos to launch their counter-attacks.

Another key duel will be between Ajax’s full-backs and Panathinaikos’s wingers. Ajax’s Devyne Rensch and Jorrel Hato have been solid defensively but will need to be wary of the pace and trickery of Tete and Filip Djuricic, who could exploit any lapses in concentration. On the flip side, Ajax’s full-backs will also be expected to provide width in attack, with Rensch in particular known for his ability to deliver dangerous crosses into the box.

In the final third, the presence of Chuba Akpom for Ajax will be critical. The former Middlesbrough striker has started the season well and will be looking to add to his tally against a Panathinaikos defence that has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in dealing with aerial threats. Akpom’s movement and ability to hold up the ball will be vital in bringing Ajax’s midfielders into play and creating scoring opportunities.

Expected Gameplay and Tactical Dynamics

Given the context of the tie, Ajax are likely to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on retaining possession and controlling the game’s pace. Farioli’s side will look to dominate the ball and patiently probe for openings, using their technical superiority to break down Panathinaikos’s defence. The emphasis will be on avoiding unnecessary risks, especially in the early stages, as Ajax seek to protect their lead while gradually building pressure on the Greek side.

Panathinaikos, by contrast, will need to take the initiative from the outset. Alonso’s men cannot afford to sit back and will need to push forward in search of an early goal to level the tie. This could lead to a more open game, particularly if Panathinaikos are forced to commit more players forward. However, this approach carries inherent risks, as Ajax’s quick transitions and ability to exploit spaces in behind could prove decisive.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams

Ajax’s primary strength lies in their defensive solidity and ability to manage games effectively. Under Farioli, they have become a well-drilled unit that is difficult to break down, as demonstrated by their recent run of clean sheets. However, there is a concern that Ajax’s attacking play can be somewhat predictable at times, relying heavily on set pieces and moments of individual brilliance rather than sustained periods of pressure. If Panathinaikos can disrupt their rhythm, Ajax may struggle to create clear-cut chances.

Panathinaikos, on the other hand, have shown they can be dangerous in transition, with quick, direct attacks that can catch opponents off guard. Their weakness, however, lies in their inconsistency in front of goal and their tendency to concede soft goals, particularly from set pieces. Alonso’s side will need to be much sharper in both boxes if they are to stand any chance of overturning the deficit.

Managerial Critique: Diego Alonso

While Diego Alonso has brought some stability to Panathinaikos since his arrival, there are serious questions about his tactical approach in big games. The first-leg defeat to Ajax was symptomatic of a team that lacked a clear plan in the final third, with Alonso failing to make the necessary adjustments to break down a stubborn Ajax defence. His insistence on playing a high-pressing game left Panathinaikos exposed at the back, and his decision to stick with a misfiring Jeremejeff up front could be seen as overly conservative. If Alonso’s side fails to progress, his tactics and team selection will undoubtedly come under intense scrutiny.

Predictions

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals

The first prediction and the best bet for this encounter is to expect under 2.5 goals. Ajax have been defensively solid under Farioli, with their last four competitive matches featuring few goals. Similarly, Panathinaikos have struggled to convert their chances, particularly against well-organised defences. Given that Ajax will likely adopt a cautious approach to protect their lead, and Panathinaikos may find it difficult to break through, a low-scoring match seems the most probable outcome.

Correct Score Prediction: Ajax 1-0 Panathinaikos

Following the best bet, the correct score prediction aligns with a narrow 1-0 win for Ajax. This scoreline reflects Ajax’s defensive strength and Panathinaikos’s challenges in attack. With Ajax not needing to take risks and Panathinaikos struggling to create clear chances, another 1-0 victory for the Dutch side is likely. This result would see Ajax progress to the next round with a 2-0 aggregate win.

Goalscorer Prediction: Steven Berghuis

Steven Berghuis is the player to watch in this tie, particularly given his goal-scoring form in the first leg. Berghuis’s ability to strike from distance and his proficiency in set-piece situations make him a constant threat. With Ajax likely to dominate possession and create chances from dead-ball situations, Berghuis is the most likely candidate to find the net again.

First Half Result: Draw

Considering Ajax’s approach to the game and Panathinaikos’s need to stay in the contest, a draw at half-time seems probable. Ajax will be cautious in the opening stages, focusing on maintaining their lead, while Panathinaikos will be wary of conceding an early goal. As a result, the first half is likely to end goalless, with both sides cautious in their approach.

Innovative Market Prediction: Ajax Over 4.5 Corners

Finally, the innovative market prediction is for Ajax to have over 4.5 corners in the match. Given their tendency to control possession and attack through the flanks, Ajax are likely to win several corners as they probe for openings. Panathinaikos’s deep defensive line could also contribute to this by forcing Ajax wide, leading to crosses being deflected out for corners.

Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips

Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!