AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle predictions for Saturday’s late Premier League kick off. Relegation candidates Bournemouth are in desperate need of points against top four hopefuls Newcastle. Will the Magpies bounce back after the European disappointment? Read on for all our free Premier League predictions and betting tips.
Match Live Saturday, 11th November at 5:30 pm In:
AFC Bournemouth vs Newcastle Predictions
[wptb id="393933" not found ]A Clash of Styles at Vitality: Analysing Bournemouth’s Survival Struggle Against Resilient Newcastle
Key Stats
– Home vs. Away: Bournemouth struggle at home with only four goals scored, whereas Newcastle’s 13 away goals are second only to Tottenham’s.
– Goals Galore: Both teams have scored in Bournemouth’s last four and nine of Newcastle’s last 12 away matches, indicating a trend that could continue when they meet.
As the Premier League gears up for another high-stakes encounter, the Vitality Stadium prepares to set the stage for a pivotal match-up. Eddie Howe returns to a familiar abode as Newcastle United are set to lock horns with Bournemouth in a fixture that has both sets of fans bracing for a rollercoaster evening. This deep dive scrutinises the tactical nuances, the expected game dynamics, and the key battlegrounds that will come into play as both teams seek redemption following recent setbacks.
Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match
BEST VALUE BET £20 Returns £33   Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Best Value Bet Rationale
His expected goals (xG) of 3.28 and expected assists (xA) of 1.30 suggest his output is no fluke, and his ability to create 5 big chances reflects a player at the heart of his team’s forward movements. Furthermore, his importance is emphasised by his inclusion in the Team of the Week accolades and the fact that he’s won two penalties for his side, indicative of his ability to make crucial plays in the box.
Newcastle’s recent form has been strong, with Gordon scoring the winning goal against Arsenal, a top-flight team, which further validates his potential to make an impact.
Although Newcastle have a quick turnaround following their Champions League exertions, they have shown resilience in the Premier League, and Gordon’s attacking prowess will be crucial against a Bournemouth side that has been conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game. With the potential absence of Callum Wilson, Gordon could assume even greater responsibility in front of goal, making him a standout candidate to contribute to Newcastle’s attack at the Vitality Stadium.
Recent Form and Tactical Outlook
Bournemouth, under the tutelage of Andoni Iraola, have been navigating turbulent waters, and their recent 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Manchester City only exacerbated their plight. The Cherries’ defence crumbled against City’s relentless assault, particularly at the mercy of Jeremy Doku’s masterclass performance. Their lone Premier League victory against Burnley seems a distant memory as they sit precariously close to the relegation vortex, compounded by a dismal home goal tally.
Newcastle’s fortunes paint a contrasting picture. The Magpies’ resolve under Howe has seen them carve a path to the upper echelons of the league standings. Despite a European stumble against Borussia Dortmund, their domestic form remains robust, with Anthony Gordon’s controversial winner against Arsenal epitomising their tenacity. However, a threadbare squad due to injuries poses significant challenges as they venture away from the comforts of St. James’ Park.
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Analysing Team Dynamics and Managerial Tactics
The clash at the Vitality could very well be decided in the midfield battleground. Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook is set to return, possibly filling the void left by the injured Alex Scott. Iraola’s potential shift to a four-man defence could also signal a tactical reversion in hopes of fortifying their backline. In contrast, Newcastle’s midfield dynamo Bruno Guimaraes, out due to suspension, presents Howe with a conundrum, likely pivoting to a more industrious midfield setup to combat Bournemouth’s inner core.
The Key Duels and Decisive Zones
With both teams looking to exploit each other’s recent defensive frailties, the flanks could become zones of high traffic. Bournemouth’s Sinisterra, buoyed by his goal against Man City, may be pivotal, while Newcastle’s Almiron, expected to return to the fold, brings pace and directness that could trouble the Cherries’ full-backs. In the heart of the defence, the aerial prowess of Newcastle’s centre-backs will be critical in neutralising the threat posed by Bournemouth’s leading goal scorer, Dominic Solanke.
Opinionated Insights on Team Strategies
Bournemouth’s strategy, while showing glimpses of promise, has been marred by inconsistency. Their propensity to concede goals has been their Achilles’ heel, a glaring vulnerability that Newcastle’s attacking flair will look to exploit. Newcastle’s strength lies in their cohesive play and the ability to transition quickly from defence to attack. However, their over-reliance on a few key individuals could be exposed if Bournemouth can effectively disrupt their rhythm.
Managerial Contrasts and Critiques
Eddie Howe’s managerial acumen has shone through Newcastle’s resurgence. His flexibility and man-management have galvanised the team, evidenced by their standing in the league. Iraola, on the other hand, faces mounting criticism for his side’s defensive disarray. The Spanish tactician must now demonstrate his adaptability and invoke a strategic shift if Bournemouth are to stave off the spectre of relegation.
Tactical Analysis
The Cherries’ recent 6-1 capitulation at the Etihad was not just a defeat; it was a harrowing exposé of a defence in disarray. They’ve been a side teetering on the brink, defensively naive and all too often caught out by the rapid transitions of Premier League play. Yet, the return of Lewis Cook offers a glimmer of a structured midfield, something that Bournemouth are in desperate need of, considering their porous backline that’s conceded 27 goals already this season.
As for their attack, it’s a smattering of individual brilliance in a canvas of collective mediocrity – the likes of Dominic Solanke and Luis Sinisterra, with their BettingTips4You Expert Ratings reflecting brief moments of potency, stand as beacons of hope in a team that’s been goal-shy, with a meagre nine to their name.
Newcastle’s Response:
Newcastle’s defeat to Borussia Dortmund has been a wake-up call, but let’s not be hoodwinked by a singular European night. Howe’s men have exhibited a brand of football that’s both fluid and formidable, especially in their conquest over a robust Arsenal side. The Magpies’ stats don’t lie; with 27 goals scored, they are a force to be reckoned with, boasting an enviable array of attacking riches. Kieran Trippier, who has a stellar BettingTips4You Expert Rating, has been instrumental, morphing from a mere defender into an attacking alchemist.
The Drawbacks:
Yet, for all their attacking flair, there’s an Achilles heel – the away draws. The stalemates against West Ham and Wolves suggest a vulnerability, a crack in the armour that could be pried open by a Bournemouth side with little to lose and everything to prove.
Managerial Impact:
The influence of management styles cannot be understated. Howe, returning to his old stomping ground, has his side playing with a fearlessness that’s rooted in tactical flexibility and player empowerment. On the flip side, Iraola’s Bournemouth, seemingly wedded to a more traditional English approach, has lacked imagination. Howe’s Magpies are a testament to the positive impact of managerial philosophy, with his faith in the likes of Joe Willock and the versatile Joelinton paying dividends.
Expected Goals – A Statistical Divergence:
Now, onto expected goals – a tale of contrasting fortunes. Newcastle have been ruthless, their xG stats a testament to their attacking prowess, while Bournemouth’s xG is as dismal as their league position suggests. The Cherries’ attack has been blunt; their forays forward more hopeful than expectant, and it’s a trend that needs a drastic turnaround.
Tactical Battle Lines:
The battle of strategies is intriguing – Newcastle’s assertive, pressing play is a stark contrast to Bournemouth’s seemingly rearguard-first approach. The Cherries need to shake off the defensive shackles if they wish to stand toe-to-toe with Howe’s high-flying outfit. In terms of individual brilliance, the Magpies’ Trippier has been a revelation, while Bournemouth’s Sinisterra has shown flashes of excellence in an otherwise dreary campaign.
Areas for Improvement:
And so, the suggestions for improvement are as glaring as the midday sun. Bournemouth must bolster their backline, foster creativity in midfield, and inject a sense of belief that has been so conspicuously absent. Newcastle, meanwhile, need to address their inconsistent away form and ensure that their fortress doesn’t become a house of cards when on unfamiliar turf.
Pros and Cons:
The pros and cons are evident. Newcastle’s aggressive, front-foot football is a double-edged sword, capable of cutting through sides, but also leaving them exposed on the break – especially without the suspended Guimaraes to marshal the midfield. Bournemouth’s defensive stance is their saving grace and downfall; it provides structure but stifles their creative outlets.
Critical Analysis of Iraola:
And for the heavy criticism, one might turn a stern gaze towards Iraola. While Howe has transformed Newcastle into a side burgeoning with potential, Iraola’s Bournemouth feels like a team that’s running out of ideas, gasping for a tactical revolution that seems beyond their grasp.
The Larger Picture:
In the grand scheme of things, this matchup is not just about three points – it’s a narrative of two sides, two philosophies, and indeed, two managers, with Howe’s modernist approach leaving Iraola’s conservative tactics looking somewhat antiquated.
Predictions
Market Prediction: Both Teams to Score – No
Given Bournemouth’s struggles with scoring at home and Newcastle’s strong defensive statistics, it’s reasonable to predict that Bournemouth may not score. Bournemouth has only scored 9 goals in 11 games, averaging less than a goal per game, and their home goal tally is one of the lowest in the division. On the other hand, Newcastle has kept 5 clean sheets, indicative of a solid defence, and they have conceded only 11 goals in 11 matches. These stats reinforce the prediction that Newcastle may well keep a clean sheet in this fixture.
Correct Score Prediction: Bournemouth 0-2 Newcastle
Newcastle’s attacking stats show that they average 2.5 goals per game with a total of 27 goals in 11 matches, signalling a potent offence despite the absence of key players. This scoring record suggests that even with injuries, they can capitalise on Bournemouth’s defensive vulnerability, who have conceded 27 goals so far, averaging 2.5 goals against per match. A 2-0 scoreline reflects both Newcastle’s scoring ability and Bournemouth’s defensive frailties.
Goalscorer Prediction: Miguel Almiron to Score
Miguel Almiron has a solid average BettingTips4You expert rating and is a vital part of Newcastle’s attack. With the team averaging 13.5 shots per game and Almiron’s personal stats showing promise, he is a good bet to be among the scorers, especially with his improved finishing and pace that can exploit Bournemouth’s defensive gaps.
Corner Prediction: Newcastle More Corners; Total Over 9.5 Corners
Newcastle’s attacking style results in a good number of corners, with a statistic of 4.3 corners per game. Considering both team’s styles and Bournemouth’s lower defensive duels win rate, Newcastle is likely to push Bournemouth back, resulting in a greater number of corners. The prediction of more than 9.5 corners takes into account the attacking nature of both teams when they are behind, striving to score.
Shot on Target Prediction: Joelinton to Have 1 or More Shots on Target
Joelinton has adapted to a more attacking role under Howe and with a forward’s responsibility in the face of Newcastle’s absentee list, it is likely he will be in positions to test the goalkeeper. Given Bournemouth’s conceded shots on target per game (3.8), this further substantiates that Joelinton may have opportunities to add to this statistic.
Yellow Card Prediction: Philip Billing
Philip Billing’s midfield role and the fact that he already has two yellow cards this season suggest he plays with an aggressive style that could lead to disciplinary action, especially under the pressure of Newcastle’s midfielders like Joelinton and long-staff who will likely engage in numerous contests for the ball.
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