AC Milan vs Torino Predictions

AC Milan vs Torino predictions and betting tips for this Italian Serie A fixture. After an impressive pre-season, AC Milan return to competitive action on Saturday evening as they host Torino at San Siro. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Serie A | Aug 17, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan vs Torino Predictions

Can AC Milan Dominate Torino in Their Serie A Opener?

As the 2024-25 Serie A season begins, AC Milan are set to host Torino at the iconic San Siro. Both teams are entering this campaign under new management, with Paulo Fonseca taking the reins at Milan and Paolo Vanoli stepping in at Torino. With fresh tactical philosophies being implemented by both coaches, this match promises to be an intriguing contest. AC Milan, bolstered by a strong pre-season, are eager to kick off their title challenge with a victory, while Torino aim to disrupt the Rossoneri’s plans and start their season on a high note.

AC Milan’s New Era Under Paulo Fonseca

After a disappointing 2023-24 campaign that saw AC Milan finish a distant second in Serie A, the Rossoneri have made significant changes, the most notable being the appointment of Paulo Fonseca as head coach. Fonseca, who enjoyed success with Lille in Ligue 1, where his team kept the most clean sheets and scored the second-most goals, brings a tactical acumen that Milan hope will reignite their Scudetto ambitions.

Milan’s pre-season performances have been promising, with victories over European heavyweights such as Manchester City and Real Madrid, followed by a comprehensive 3-1 win against Monza in the Trofeo Berlusconi. These results have raised expectations among the Milan faithful, who are eager to see their team compete at the highest level once again. Fonseca’s approach, which emphasises a solid defensive foundation combined with fluid attacking play, appears to suit Milan’s squad well, especially with the addition of key players like Alvaro Morata and Christian Pulisic.

However, despite these positive signs, Milan’s squad is not without its issues. The absence of Olivier Giroud, who has moved to MLS, leaves a gap in the striking department that Morata will need to fill. Moreover, while Pulisic is expected to feature, there are still fitness concerns surrounding him. Milan’s defence, though solid on paper, will need to prove that they can maintain the high standards set in pre-season when the real competition begins.

Torino’s Transitional Phase Under Paolo Vanoli

Torino, meanwhile, are also in a period of transition. After finishing in the top half of Serie A last season, the club parted ways with Ivan Juric, a manager known for his defensive organisation and pragmatism. His replacement, Paolo Vanoli, who previously led Venezia to promotion from Serie B, brings a different set of ideas to the table. Vanoli’s challenge will be to maintain Torino’s defensive solidity while adding more attacking intent to their play.

Torino’s preparation for the new season has been steady, if not spectacular. They secured a 2-0 victory over Cosenza in the Coppa Italia, which provided Vanoli with an opportunity to assess his squad in a competitive setting. Key players like Duvan Zapata and Antonio Sanabria, who were instrumental in Torino’s attack last season, remain crucial to Vanoli’s plans. However, the departure of Alessandro Buongiorno, a key figure in their defence, has left a void that needs to be addressed.

Torino’s approach to this match is likely to be cautious, with an emphasis on keeping things tight at the back and looking to exploit any lapses in Milan’s defence. Given Milan’s tendency to concede goals at home towards the end of last season, Torino might see this as an opportunity to snatch a goal or two, especially with the physical presence of Zapata leading their attack.

Tactical Dynamics and Key Match-Ups

The tactical battle between Fonseca and Vanoli will be fascinating to watch. Fonseca’s Milan are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Morata leading the line supported by a trio of attacking midfielders, including Leao and Pulisic. The midfield pivot of Bennacer and Reijnders will be crucial in controlling the game and providing the platform for Milan’s attacking play.

On the other hand, Torino are likely to adopt a 3-5-2 formation, which gives them defensive solidity while allowing them to counter-attack quickly. The wing-backs, Bellanova and Lazaro, will have a significant role in providing width and supporting the forwards, while the central midfielders, Ricci and Linetty, will be tasked with breaking up Milan’s play and initiating counters.

A key area of the pitch where this match could be decided is the battle between Milan’s full-backs, particularly Theo Hernandez, and Torino’s wing-backs. Hernandez’s ability to bomb forward and deliver crosses could be a significant weapon for Milan, but it also leaves space in behind that Torino’s wide players will look to exploit. Additionally, the physical battle between Milan’s centre-backs, Tomori and Thiaw, and Torino’s forwards, particularly Zapata, will be crucial. If Torino can win this duel, they stand a better chance of getting a positive result.

Expected Goals (xG) and Offensive Analysis

When analysing expected goals (xG) metrics, AC Milan’s attacking numbers from last season suggest a team that creates numerous opportunities, particularly from inside the box. Milan’s xG was bolstered by the creativity of their wide players and midfielders, and the addition of Morata should only enhance their ability to convert these chances into goals. However, Milan’s defence was less impressive, with their xG against indicating a vulnerability that Torino could look to exploit.

Torino’s xG, on the other hand, reflects a more conservative approach. They create fewer chances but are generally efficient in converting them. Their xG from set-pieces is particularly notable, given Zapata’s aerial threat and Torino’s ability to win duels in the air. If Torino can force Milan into conceding corners or free-kicks, they might find a way to score despite being the less dominant team.

Suggestions for Improvement and Critical Analysis

For AC Milan, the key to success this season lies in maintaining the defensive discipline that was a hallmark of Fonseca’s Lille side, while also ensuring that their attacking players are more clinical in front of goal. Fonseca’s challenge will be to integrate new signings like Morata and Pulisic quickly, ensuring that Milan do not suffer from the inconsistency that plagued them last season. Additionally, Fonseca must address Milan’s tendency to switch off defensively, particularly at home, where they conceded too many goals in the latter stages of matches.

Torino, meanwhile, must find a way to balance their defensive approach with a more proactive offensive strategy. Vanoli has inherited a squad that was well-drilled under Juric, but the challenge will be to evolve this team to be more than just solid at the back. Torino need to be braver in possession and look to create more chances, particularly against stronger opponents where sitting back might not always be effective.

Heavy Criticism: Torino’s Lack of Ambition

Torino’s approach to big games, particularly under Vanoli’s predecessor, was often overly cautious, bordering on negative. While this approach might have earned them a respectable number of clean sheets, it also limited their potential to challenge for higher honours. Vanoli must break away from this mindset if Torino are to progress. In matches like this one against Milan, Torino cannot afford to sit back and hope for a draw; they must be willing to take the game to their opponents, even if it means taking more risks.

Predictions

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals

Given AC Milan’s attacking potential, especially with the addition of Morata and the creative talents of Leao and Pulisic, this match is likely to see goals. Torino, too, have the firepower to trouble Milan’s defence, particularly through Zapata. With both teams looking to start the season on a positive note, backing over 2.5 goals seems a strong bet.

Correct Score Prediction: AC Milan 3-1 Torino

Building on the expectation of goals, a 3-1 victory for Milan appears likely. Milan’s superior attacking options should see them score multiple goals, but Torino’s ability to exploit defensive lapses means they could also find the net.

Goalscorer Prediction: Rafael Leao to Score Anytime

Rafael Leao, who will be looking to improve on his tally from last season, is a prime candidate to score in this match. His pace, skill, and finishing ability make him a constant threat, and with Milan expected to dominate possession, he should have plenty of opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

First Half Result: AC Milan to Lead at Half-Time

With the home crowd behind them and a desire to start strongly under their new manager, Milan are likely to come out of the blocks quickly. Expect Milan to take the lead by half-time as they look to set the tone early in the match.

Innovative Market Prediction: Theo Hernandez to Provide an Assist

Theo Hernandez’s ability to push forward and deliver dangerous crosses makes him a key player in Milan’s attacking setup. Given Torino’s likely defensive approach, Hernandez’s overlapping runs could be a critical source of chances, and backing him to provide an assist offers a valuable betting angle.

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