AC Milan vs Roma Predictions

AC Milan vs Roma predictions ahead of this Serie A affair at San Siro. Both AC Milan and Roma, who were eliminated from the Coppa Italia during the week, are looking to bounce back with a strong performance as they face each other at San Siro on Sunday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

AC Milan
Roma

Serie A | Gameweek 20 —January 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

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AC Milan vs Roma Predictions

£10 Returns £39

Reason for tip: Bolton's attacking prowess and Luton's defensive issues suggest a likely BTTS outcome. Bolton's strong goal-scoring record contrasts with Luton's struggles to maintain clean sheets, supporting this forecast.

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£10 Returns £100

Reason for tip: Bolton's home advantage and attacking flair, paired with Luton's erratic form, point towards a 2-1 win for Bolton. The Trotters' impressive home record further supports this prediction.

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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change; Stake Limits Might Apply; T&C's Apply; #Ad

A Tactical Tussle at San Siro: Milan and Roma’s Quest for Redemption

Key Stats
– AC Milan boasts a formidable home record with four consecutive wins at San Siro, underlining their dominance on familiar turf.
– Romelu Lukaku, Roma’s key striker, has a striking record of scoring in all four league games he started against Milan, showcasing his threat in crucial fixtures.
– Milan’s attacking prowess is highlighted by their average of 2.2 big chances created per game, a testament to their offensive creativity and efficiency in Serie A.

The upcoming clash between AC Milan and AS Roma at the San Siro is not just a routine Serie A fixture; it’s a battle of redemption for two Italian giants seeking to recover from their midweek Coppa Italia setbacks. This encounter is laden with tactical intricacies, strategic dilemmas, and individual duels that could tilt the game’s balance. In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll dissect the potential dynamics of this high-stakes match, scrutinise the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, and predict the critical elements that could decide the outcome.

AC Milan’s Tactical Outlook

Stefano Pioli’s AC Milan, although trailing league leaders Inter Milan, have shown resilience and strategic adaptability this season. Their recent Serie A form – winning five out of the last seven matches – is a testament to their ability to overcome adversities, including a spate of injuries. The Rossoneri, with an average Sofascore rating of 6.97, have been particularly formidable at home, winning their last four games at San Siro.

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Milan’s attacking prowess, led by the likes of Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao, has been commendable. Giroud, in particular, has been a pivotal figure, needing just one goal to achieve a remarkable milestone. Milan’s ability to create big chances (2.2 per game) and their potent mix of creativity and finishing (35 goals scored) makes them a threat, especially against teams that falter in defensive organisation.

However, Milan’s defence, in the absence of key players like Fikayo Tomori, has been vulnerable. Their tendency to lose possession frequently (112.9 times per game) could be exploited by a counter-attacking team. Milan must maintain discipline in their defensive transitions to nullify Roma’s attack.

AS Roma’s Strategic Conundrum

Under Jose Mourinho, Roma has been a mix of tactical rigidity and sporadic brilliance. Their recent form in Serie A – winless in their last eight matches against Milan – raises questions about their ability to handle pressure games. With an average Sofascore rating of 6.94, Roma’s issues have been more pronounced in away games, losing both of their last two without scoring.

The absence of key players like Paulo Dybala and the suspension of Mourinho adds to Roma’s challenges. Their reliance on Romelu Lukaku for goals is evident, with the striker scoring in all four league games he has started against Milan. However, Roma’s defence, particularly in the absence of Chris Smalling and with Gianluca Mancini’s suspension, could be their Achilles heel.

Roma’s propensity to concede goals (1.1 per game) and their struggle to maintain control in midfield battles, especially against teams that dominate possession, will be areas Milan can exploit. The Giallorossi will need to shore up their defensive organisation and rely on quick transitions to catch Milan off guard.

Key Battles and Game Dynamics

The game will likely be decided in midfield, where control and quick transitions will be crucial. Milan’s Theo Hernandez’s duels with Roma’s Bryan Cristante could be pivotal in setting the game’s tempo. Additionally, the battle between Milan’s Christian Pulisic and Roma’s defensive line will be critical, considering Pulisic’s recent form.

The game’s nature will hinge on Milan’s ability to control possession and break down Roma’s likely compact and counter-attacking strategy. Milan’s proficiency in ball possession (56.1%) and attacking versatility, with threats from both wings and central areas, could overwhelm Roma’s defensive setup. On the other hand, Roma’s counter-attacks, led by the pace and physicality of Lukaku, could exploit Milan’s high defensive line and occasional lapses in concentration.

Highly Opinionated Analysis

Milan’s Pros and Cons: Milan’s strength lies in their dynamic attacking style and ability to dominate games through possession. Players like Giroud and Leao add depth and versatility to their attack. However, their defensive vulnerabilities and over-reliance on certain key players for goals can be their downfall, especially in high-stakes matches.

Roma’s Strategy – A Double-Edged Sword: Mourinho’s tactical rigidity gives Roma a certain level of defensive structure, but it also limits their creativity in attack. Their reliance on individual brilliance rather than collective team play has often left them wanting in games that require tactical flexibility.

Critique of Mourinho: Despite his illustrious career, Mourinho’s approach with Roma has been underwhelming. His conservative tactics and inability to inspire his team in big matches have been glaring. The team’s lack of cohesion and over-dependence on Lukaku for goals are reflective of a strategy that lacks depth and adaptability.

Expected Lineups and Implications

AC Milan’s Expected Lineup: Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Hernandez, Jimenez; Reijnders, Adli; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud. This lineup suggests Milan will focus on attack, with Pulisic and Leao providing width and creativity, and Giroud as the focal point in attack.

Roma’s Expected Lineup: Patricio; Mancini, Cristante, Llorente; Kristensen, Pellegrini, Paredes, Bove, Zalewski; Belotti, Lukaku. Roma’s lineup, shaped by absences, indicates a likely defensive approach, with Lukaku and Belotti tasked with exploiting any counter-attacking opportunities.

Predictions and Rationale

  1. Win-Draw-Win Market – Milan to Win: Milan’s formidable home record and Roma’s struggles in away games, coupled with the tactical mismatch, favour Milan. Their ability to control the game and penetrate Roma’s defence gives them the edge.
  2. Correct Score Prediction – 3-1 to Milan: Considering Milan’s attacking form and Roma’s defensive woes, a high-scoring game is likely. Milan’s balanced attack could exploit Roma’s makeshift defence, leading to multiple goals.
  3. Goalscorer Prediction – Olivier Giroud to Score: Giroud’s form and his knack for crucial goals, especially with Milan’s creative midfield support, make him a likely candidate to find the net in this clash.
  4. Team to Score First – Milan: Milan’s aggressive start in home games and Roma’s vulnerability early in matches suggest Milan is likely to open the scoring.

£10 Returns £39

Reason for tip: Bolton's attacking prowess and Luton's defensive issues suggest a likely BTTS outcome. Bolton's strong goal-scoring record contrasts with Luton's struggles to maintain clean sheets, supporting this forecast.

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£10 Returns £100

Reason for tip: Bolton's home advantage and attacking flair, paired with Luton's erratic form, point towards a 2-1 win for Bolton. The Trotters' impressive home record further supports this prediction.

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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change; Stake Limits Might Apply; T&C's Apply; #Ad

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!