AC Milan vs Lecce Predictions

AC Milan vs Lecce predictions for this Serie A fixture. Following their derby victory, AC Milan aim for a third consecutive Serie A win as they host Lecce at San Siro on Friday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Serie A | Sep 27, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan vs Lecce Predictions

Can AC Milan Keep Their Winning Momentum Against a Struggling Lecce?

• Milan’s Attacking Strength: The Rossoneri have scored 11 goals in their first five Serie A matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game. Their fluid attacking play has seen them create 16.2 shots per game, with 6.2 on target, highlighting their offensive efficiency.
• Lecce’s Defensive Woes: Lecce have conceded 8 goals in 5 matches, at a rate of 1.6 goals per game. Their defence has been porous, with only two clean sheets, and they are prone to mistakes when under pressure, conceding crucial goals late in games.
• Christian Pulisic’s Form: The American winger has been instrumental for Milan, scoring three goals in five league appearances. His influence in the attacking third has been significant, contributing to Milan’s improved form and making him a key player to watch against Lecce.

Our Tips

On Friday evening, AC Milan welcome Lecce to the San Siro, looking to secure their third consecutive Serie A victory. The Rossoneri come into this fixture buoyed by a morale-boosting 2-1 win against their city rivals, Inter Milan, in the Derby della Madonnina. Matteo Gabbia’s late header not only sealed the victory but also signalled a potential turning point for Paulo Fonseca’s side, who have struggled to find consistency early in the season. With European commitments looming large, Milan will be keen to build momentum in the league and consolidate their position in the upper echelons of the table.

Meanwhile, Lecce have endured a torrid start to their campaign. Without a win since August and having been recently knocked out of the Coppa Italia by lower-tier opposition, Luca Gotti’s men are in desperate need of a positive result. Their last league outing saw them squander a two-goal lead to draw with Parma, highlighting their fragility and lack of confidence. Facing a resurgent Milan at the San Siro is an intimidating prospect, and the visitors will need to be at their very best to avoid another disappointing result.

Best Bet: AC Milan/Milan Half Time/Full Time

Backing AC Milan to lead at both half-time and full-time appears to be the most compelling betting option for this match. There are several reasons why this outcome seems likely, and they are rooted in both form and tactical analysis.

Milan have displayed a significant improvement in their attacking play in recent weeks. With Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao providing support to the strike partnership of Tammy Abraham and Alvaro Morata, the Rossoneri possess a potent offensive arsenal that can trouble any defence in Serie A. Pulisic, in particular, has been in scintillating form, scoring three goals in five league matches. His ability to exploit spaces between the lines and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat, especially against a Lecce side that has struggled defensively, conceding eight goals in five matches.

Moreover, Milan’s home form has been solid, and they tend to start games on the front foot, often taking control early on. Their tactical setup, which involves pressing high and creating overloads in wide areas, can suffocate teams that are not adept at playing out from the back—something that Lecce have struggled with this season. The Giallorossi’s passing accuracy in their own half stands at 89.6%, but when pressured, they are prone to mistakes, as evidenced by their recent matches where they have conceded late goals due to lapses in concentration.

On the defensive front, Milan still have some questions to answer, having kept just one clean sheet in their last five league outings. However, Lecce’s attack has been relatively toothless, with only three goals scored so far, two of which came from Nikola Krstovic, their lone bright spot. The Rossoneri’s ability to control possession—averaging 56.2% per game—should limit Lecce’s opportunities to counter-attack and create clear-cut chances. Additionally, Lecce’s woeful record at San Siro, where they have failed to score in five of their last six visits, further bolsters the case for Milan to lead comfortably at both intervals.

“Given Milan’s recent resurgence and Lecce’s ongoing struggles, the hosts are well-positioned to dominate this fixture. Expect them to impose their game plan from the outset and secure a straightforward win,” explains our BettingTips4You.com expert, Luca Semproni.

Correct Score Prediction: AC Milan 2-0 Lecce

Following the analysis of Milan’s strengths and Lecce’s weaknesses, a 2-0 scoreline in favour of the home side seems the most plausible outcome. This prediction aligns with Milan’s recent form, as they have found the back of the net consistently while still displaying some defensive frailties.

Milan’s attacking prowess, led by Pulisic and the rejuvenated Abraham, should be enough to breach Lecce’s defence, which has been porous, conceding 1.6 goals per game on average. However, Lecce’s expected struggles in front of goal make it unlikely they will find a way past the experienced Milan backline, especially with Maignan in goal.

The Rossoneri have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game, and given their dominance in possession and ability to create high-quality chances—averaging 3.6 big chances per game—they should be able to score at least twice. Lecce’s inability to defend set-pieces effectively, coupled with their vulnerability to quick transitions, suggests that Milan will have opportunities to score both in open play and from dead-ball situations.

Overall, a controlled, professional performance from Milan should see them through with a 2-0 win, allowing them to continue their upward trajectory in Serie A.

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