Rugby betting tips: New South Wales v Queensland Maroons predictions, preview and best bets for State of Origin

A nation will be divided once more as the 2025 State of Origin series comes to its thrilling conclusion this Wednesday morning. The final chapter unfolds at Accor Stadium in Sydney, with the series delicately poised after two fiercely contested encounters. Read on to find a detailed outright preview and top betting recommendations.

Rugby betting tips: New South Wales v Queensland Predictions for State of Origin

Can One Moment Decide It All in Sydney?

• New South Wales have triumphed in four of their last six Origin matches held at Accor Stadium
• Xavier Coates has been named in every game of the series and remains Queensland’s most consistent wing threat
• Brian To’o scored a hat-trick in Game 2 and opened the scoring in Perth, highlighting his current sharpness out wide

Our Best Bet

New South Wales opened their campaign with an authoritative 18-6 triumph in Brisbane, showcasing their cohesion and tactical discipline. However, Queensland responded in kind during the second match in Perth, edging a thrilling contest 26-24 after capitalising on NSW’s lapses in concentration and discipline during the opening forty minutes.

The Blues arrive in Sydney knowing they have let Queensland back into a series they largely controlled. Over the two games played, New South Wales have arguably dominated for three-quarters of the total minutes, yet the scoreline reads 1-1. The third and final match, then, becomes not just a decider, but a test of nerve, focus and execution under pressure. The cauldron of Accor Stadium has been a fortress of sorts for the Blues, who have secured victories in four of their last six appearances at the ground, yet recent Game 3 records offer a less flattering narrative.

Both sides have named strong line-ups, though questions remain over the readiness of some key players. For New South Wales, Brian To’o retains his spot on the wing after an eye-catching hat-trick in Perth, though there are minor concerns surrounding a knee issue that could see Jacob Kiraz step in at the last minute. Queensland, meanwhile, have injected youth and risk into their centres, with Robert Toia and Gehamat Shibasaki handed huge responsibilities in just their third Origin appearance combined. This adds further intrigue to a game already teeming with narrative, strategy and tension.

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Best Bet of the Day

New South Wales To Win, Brian To’o & Xavier Coates Both To Score A Try

At BettingTips4You, we pride ourselves on providing only one selection per match. This focused approach is rooted in a belief that depth and precision are more valuable than overwhelming readers with excessive options. It also ensures our performance is easily trackable and promotes clarity for punters.

For this series finale, our standout wager pairs a New South Wales win with tries from Brian To’o and Xavier Coates, returning a price of 4/1.

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Why This Bet Holds Value

The Blues are widely expected to assert themselves in front of a home crowd in Sydney, especially after a spirited second-half surge in Perth. Their backline is packed with pace and power, and To’o remains a lethal weapon in finishing off wide moves. After notching three tries in Game 2, the Panthers winger is primed to take advantage again, particularly against a Queensland edge defence featuring two relatively inexperienced centres. If New South Wales continue to create space on the edges as they did in both earlier matches, To’o’s nose for the try line will serve him well.

On the other side, while the Maroons may struggle for territory and possession, Coates remains one of their most dangerous threats in open play. With Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow now shifted to full-back and Holmes also starting, Queensland could focus their limited opportunities on Coates’ wing, targeting mismatches and kick returns to get him involved. The Melbourne flyer is more than capable of producing a moment of brilliance against the run of play, even if his side ends up second best on the night.

The nature of this decider lends itself to a blend of structure and broken field opportunities, both of which benefit these two dynamic finishers. With the Blues having more rhythm across their spine—particularly in the Cleary-Luai partnership—the expectation is they control the tempo, win the match, and create enough chances for their outside backs to capitalise.

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