Premier League 2025/26 relegation predictions: is this the season the balance shifts at the bottom?

The Premier League returns with fresh promise and renewed uncertainty, particularly at the bottom of the table. This year’s relegation battle looks to be one of the most open in recent memory, with several clubs entering the new campaign under a cloud of concern.

Premier League outright relegation betting tips

Could a Premier League Mainstay Be Facing the Drop This Season?

• Brentford’s +3.6 expected goal difference last season now looks unsustainable given the loss of Mbeumo, Norgaard, and Flekken.
• Wolves posted a league-worst expected goal difference (-14.5) outside the relegated sides in 2024/25.
• Leeds finished last Championship season with 100 points and a +59.5 xG difference, making them the best prepared of the promoted sides.

Our Best Bet

The narrative for the new season opens with a familiar pattern: newly promoted clubs once again topping the bookmakers’ lists as favourites for the drop. Burnley, Sunderland, and Leeds United have made their way up from the Championship, but they now face the daunting prospect of survival in an increasingly ruthless top flight. What’s alarming is that, for the second consecutive year, every promoted side failed to avoid relegation — a sign that the gap between the divisions continues to widen.

Burnley arrive back in the Premier League boasting a record-breaking defensive showing last term, conceding just 16 goals and keeping 30 clean sheets in the Championship. But the departures of James Trafford and Josh Brownhill signal a weakening of their spine. Without that strong base, and with Scott Parker’s limited success in previous top-flight stints, Burnley look less equipped than their defensive numbers might suggest.

Sunderland, who only scraped into the playoffs after finishing sixth with 76 points, pulled off a surprising promotion run. However, they’ve also undergone significant changes. The sales of Tommy Watson and Jobe Bellingham weaken the core of the team that achieved that improbable ascent. Their summer spending spree, which includes eye-catching arrivals like Granit Xhaka, Habib Diarra, and Enzo Le Fée, suggests ambition, but they may still lack the cohesion and Premier League-level experience required for survival.

Leeds, on the other hand, arrive with the most stable foundation. Having matched Burnley’s 100-point haul en route to the Championship title, they have recruited cleverly in the summer. Daniel Farke’s side has been reinforced with players such as Lucas Perri, Jaka Bijol, Anton Stach, Lukas Nmecha, and Sean Longstaff — a mix that appears tailored to balance youth and top-flight readiness. Out of the three promoted clubs, Leeds seem the most capable of withstanding the Premier League’s demands.

Outside of the newcomers, several established clubs find themselves at risk. Wolves and West Ham, in particular, are not entering this season with much momentum. Wolves suffered from the worst expected goal difference in the league outside the bottom three last term, and the loss of Matheus Cunha is significant. Although reinforcements have come in, including Jhon Arias and Fer Lopez, their ability to fill Cunha’s 15-goal void is far from guaranteed. Manager Vitor Pereira steered them clear of immediate danger after taking over, but the signs remain concerning.

West Ham’s trajectory is even more puzzling. Despite finishing comfortably above the drop zone last season, their form was deeply inconsistent. Graham Potter was brought in to stabilise the squad, but questions remain over whether the current group of players suits his system. While the additions of Jean-Clair Todibo, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Kyle Walker-Peters, and Callum Wilson provide options, the loss of Mohammed Kudus to Tottenham leaves a significant creative hole.

Brentford are another club who could find themselves dragged into the relegation battle. After five seasons of stability and progress under Thomas Frank, his departure to Spurs has prompted a change in direction. New manager Keith Andrews steps up from within, but this is his first foray into senior management — an unproven figure in an unforgiving league. The exits of key figures such as Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, Mark Flekken, and potentially Yoane Wissa strip the squad of both experience and attacking threat. The arrivals of Jordan Henderson and Caoimhin Kelleher add something, but the core that helped the Bees punch above their weight has been seriously eroded.

Fulham and Crystal Palace also find themselves on the periphery of the relegation conversation. The former’s lack of summer activity may stall the momentum they built last term. Palace, for their part, have the distraction of European competition following their surprise FA Cup win. This added fixture congestion, coupled with the possible departures of key men, could turn what was a season of success into a year of struggle.

With so many teams either rebuilding or stalling, this season’s relegation picture appears murky. The promoted clubs are again under the microscope, but the struggles of some more established sides may offer them a glimmer of hope. Whether that’s enough to keep them up, however, remains to be seen.

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Best Bet for Today’s Action: Brentford to Be Relegated

Here at BettingTips4You, we focus on quality over quantity — that’s why we only ever give a single best prediction per event. It’s our belief that a clearly defined tip not only enhances accountability but also simplifies the decision-making process for our readers. For today’s action, our standout value comes in the form of backing Brentford to be relegated.

This pick might surprise some, given the club’s recent Premier League finishes, but a deeper look reveals structural cracks that could prove costly.

Brentford’s summer has been marked by upheaval, both in the dugout and on the pitch. The departure of long-term manager Thomas Frank to Tottenham marked the end of an era. Frank was instrumental in Brentford’s overachievement, managing to keep the club competitive with a philosophy rooted in data-driven recruitment and tactical clarity. His successor, Keith Andrews, takes the reins without any experience managing at the Premier League level. While promoting from within can work in stable environments, doing so amid significant squad turnover is a considerable gamble.

The exits of Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, and Mark Flekken have further destabilised the spine of the team. Mbeumo in particular was pivotal in providing attacking output. The possible departure of Yoane Wissa, another key forward, would leave Brentford worryingly light in front of goal. The incoming Jordan Henderson will provide leadership, and Caoimhin Kelleher should prove a steady presence in goal, but these additions do not compensate for the sheer volume of quality lost.

Last season, Brentford posted a positive expected goal difference (+3.6), which suggests they had a strong underlying structure. However, the current squad does not reflect the same potential. The infrastructure built by Matthew Benham may once again be relied upon to overperform expectations, but even that has limits. With proven performers gone and an untested manager in charge, the margin for error has narrowed dramatically.

Brentford enter this campaign in transition. Transition seasons can be managed well, but the danger is amplified when multiple key changes occur simultaneously. The balance of their success was always delicate — and this time, it may tip the wrong way.

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