NFL betting tips: New England Patriots @ New York Jets predictions, preview and best bets

The New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in Thursday night’s NFL game. Check out previews and tips for this divisional matchup from our experts, Graham Hartshorn, who has had a great start to the NFL season.

NFL | Sep 20, 2024 at 1.15 pm UK at MetLife Stadium

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Predictions

Can the Patriots’ Defence Halt the Jets’ Stuttering Offence in a Tight AFC East Battle?

• The Patriots are averaging 177.5 rushing yards per game, the fourth-best in the NFL.
• The Jets have allowed 155 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks, one of the worst in the league.
• Hunter Henry has been targeted 12 times in the last game alone, catching 8 passes for 127 yards, more than double any other Patriots receiver.

Best Bet

This week’s NFL action features a pivotal AFC East showdown as the New England Patriots travel to New York to face off against the Jets. Both teams have shown contrasting performances in the early stages of the season. The Patriots, who were initially expected to struggle, have defied expectations with their disciplined and defensive style of play. Meanwhile, the Jets, despite a significant win against the Titans, have yet to find their rhythm offensively. As these two sides prepare to lock horns, it promises to be a tightly contested affair, albeit one that might lack the fireworks seen in previous weeks.

Backing the Patriots to cover the spread of +6.5 points appears to be the most prudent choice for this encounter. Despite their underwhelming 1-1 record, New England have displayed an ability to keep games close, thanks primarily to their formidable defence and a robust running game. The Patriots are averaging 177.5 rushing yards per game, the fourth-best in the NFL, and their ground game could be crucial in controlling the tempo against the Jets.

The Jets, on the other hand, have been vulnerable against the run, conceding a worrying 155 rushing yards per game over the first two weeks. This defensive frailty could play right into the hands of New England’s strategy. Furthermore, the Patriots’ quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, while not putting up impressive numbers through the air, has avoided costly mistakes and managed to sustain drives with his ability to gain crucial first downs with his legs. His connection with tight end Hunter Henry, who has become the focal point of the Patriots’ passing game, will also be key. Henry has caught 16 passes for 185 yards across the first two games and faces a Jets defence that has struggled against tight ends, allowing the 11th most catches in the league to this position.

The Jets’ offence, led by Aaron Rodgers, has been less than convincing. Rodgers has thrown for just 343 yards and three touchdowns over two games. His chemistry with his new teammates appears to be a work in progress. The team’s reliance on their running game, led by Hall, hasn’t yielded explosive results either, with Hall managing just 62 yards on 14 carries in the previous game. This lack of offensive firepower makes it difficult to see the Jets blowing out a Patriots side that has shown resilience and defensive tenacity, especially considering New England’s recent track record against them.

Moreover, in what is expected to be a low-scoring contest, giving the Patriots a cushion of nearly a touchdown seems a sensible bet. The Jets, despite their Week 2 victory, were outgained in total yards and benefitted from turnovers to seal their win. Such a scenario is unlikely to be replicated against a New England side that plays a conservative and mistake-free brand of football.

Additional Prediction

Given both teams’ offensive struggles and defensive strengths, a bet on the under 37 points is an appealing choice. The Patriots’ defensive unit has been particularly stout, holding the high-powered Seahawks to just three points in the second half of their Week 2 clash. Meanwhile, the Jets’ defence, while not living up to its pre-season hype, still possesses the capability to stymie a relatively weak Patriots passing attack.

New England’s conservative approach, focussing on running the ball and controlling possession, is likely to keep the clock moving and limit the number of scoring opportunities for both sides. The Jets’ offensive line has also struggled to provide consistent protection for Rodgers, which could further limit their ability to score points against a disciplined Patriots defence.

Additionally, recent matchups between these two sides in New York have been low-scoring affairs, with the under hitting in seven of the last eight encounters. With both offences still trying to find their footing, there’s little to suggest this game will be any different. The Patriots’ reliance on their running game and the Jets’ inability to sustain offensive momentum point towards a contest where defences could dominate, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable result.

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