Lucky 15 Tips: Saturday September 20 – Can Belgravian, Kerdos, Dubai Time and On The River Deliver a Big Return?

The Saturday schedule brings a mix of competitive handicaps and high-profile Group races, with Chester, Newbury and Newmarket all serving up plenty of betting intrigue. Our four experts have each put forward their strongest case, and together they make up our Lucky 15 for today. This combination brings together a filly thriving in nurseries, a seasoned sprinter looking for revival, a handicap improver at Newmarket and a selling-race veteran with something in hand at Chester.

All four have shown signs in their most recent starts that they can outstrip their current marks or capitalise on conditions, which makes them appealing when rolled into a single accumulator. Below, each of our tipsters sets out their reasoning in detail for why their pick is the one to follow.

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Chester 13:55 – Dubai Time

Herrin Kendrick; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:

Dubai Time appeals in the opening nursery at Chester, and Herrin Kendrick is convinced she can prove too strong. The Hugo Palmer-trained filly has been steadily improving throughout her six-race campaign, with a notable victory already on the board. Her effort at Newmarket when chasing home Half Sovereign stands out: she was beaten just two and a half lengths at level weights, and the winner went on to score again at Doncaster, underlining the value of that performance. Running again from the same official mark of 65, she looks fairly treated in this company.

Her previous spins at Chester have shown she handles the Roodee’s sharp turns, and with local stables often keen to target winners here, everything points towards another bold showing. Conditions look suitable, and a handy draw gives her every chance of grabbing a good position early. With more to come from a lightly raced juvenile in her fourth nursery, Kendrick expects her to be right in the firing line.

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Chester 15:05 – On The River

Steve Harrington; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:

Steve Harrington believes On The River is the one to side with in this selling contest, despite the unusual make-up of the weights. This six-year-old gelding competes from a mark of 80, which looks workable given his recent runs. At Haydock two weeks ago, he finished five lengths behind the winner in a Class 4 handicap off 82, which is respectable form at a stronger level than today. Go back to July and he was only two lengths adrift running off 85, further suggesting that a reduced figure now gives him an edge.

The nature of this race, with official ratings stretching from 47 to 107, means that finding a runner who can hold their form near their mark is key. On The River looks one of the few who fit that profile. The presence of Joe Fanning in the saddle, a rider renowned for producing measured front-running rides, strengthens confidence. If he can settle the gelding in a prominent slot, Harrington feels his consistency will shine through and the drop in grade could see him rewarded with victory.

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Newbury 13:30 – Kerdos

John Pentin; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:

John Pentin is siding with Kerdos in the Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes at Newbury. Clive Cox’s sprinter has not quite matched the form that saw him win the Temple Stakes over a year ago, but the signs of a rebound are clear. His run in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he was beaten only two lengths, suggested he retains much of his old ability. Subsequent efforts at Goodwood and Beverley were better than the bare results, with ground and draw working against him.

Now racing on a flat, galloping track that plays to his strengths, and with the forecast suggesting easier going, conditions could finally be in his favour again. A rating of 102 marks a notable drop from previous highs, leaving him well placed if he can return to his best. Habooba and Shagraan are likely pace angles, which could allow Hector Crouch to tuck in behind and time his run. Pentin believes this set-up provides the perfect stage for Kerdos to strike back at Group level.

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Newmarket 15:55 – Belgravian

Gram Dodd; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:

Gram Dodd makes a strong case for Belgravian in the Newmarket 15:55, a horse who has thrived since being fitted with cheekpieces. His record in handicaps now reads 12111, with the only defeat in that sequence coming on the all-weather when giving away weight to a rival who went on to notch dual successes. His form on turf, particularly over staying trips, has been exemplary, with his latest outing at Goodwood underlining his quality. On that occasion, he moved into contention effortlessly and had the race sewn up well before the line, eased down to score comfortably.

Although raised 10lb for that performance, the manner of his victory suggested there was plenty left in the tank. Stamina is now a proven strength, and his ability to quicken after travelling smoothly means he can defuse tactical affairs as well as truly run races. Dodd sees Belgravian as a horse still ahead of the assessor, with the step up in grade unlikely to halt his momentum. With confidence behind him and a string of progressive efforts, he looks a banker for this leg of the Lucky 15.ntest could prove a strong pointer. With the ability already hinted at in her previous outings, she is expected to deliver on her promise and justify the patience shown by connections.

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