With 25 matches played in the 2024-25 La Liga season, the battle at the top remains finely poised. Barcelona currently hold first place, but only by the slimmest of margins, leading Real Madrid on goal difference. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are just a single point behind the two giants, ensuring this year’s title race remains one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. We are taking a look at the latest odds and have identified the best value bet for the La Liga outright winner market.
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La Liga outright odds & betting tips
Three Key Stats from the Analysis
- Atletico Madrid have the best defensive record in La Liga, conceding just 16 goals in 25 matches.
- Barcelona lead the table on goal difference, but all three top teams are separated by just one point.
- Real Madrid have won only one of their last four league matches, which has halted their momentum in the title race.
Our Best Bet
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Barcelona, despite a turbulent campaign, have managed to reclaim the summit of the standings following a five-match winning streak. Their strong form in 2024 has reinforced their position as favourites, with the bookmakers now offering 6/5 for them to lift the trophy. Real Madrid, having suffered a dip in results, are slightly longer at 11/8, while Atletico Madrid remain in contention at 7/2, offering significant value for those backing an outsider.
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Athletic Bilbao, currently sitting fourth, have put together an impressive unbeaten streak and boast the third-best defensive record in the league. However, at 500/1, bookmakers see their title chances as slim. Villarreal, despite being fifth in the table, are given an even lower probability at 750/1, making their title push highly improbable.
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Updated La Liga Outright Winner Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 6/5 |
| Real Madrid | 11/8 |
| Atletico Madrid | 7/2 |
| Athletic Bilbao | 500/1 |
| Villarreal | 750/1 |
“Odds are correct at time of post and subject to change
Best Bet: Atletico Madrid to Win La Liga
At 7/2, Atletico Madrid offer excellent value in the title race. Despite often being overshadowed by Barcelona and Real Madrid, Diego Simeone’s side have demonstrated the resilience and tactical solidity needed to challenge for the top spot. Crucially, they have suffered only two defeats all season, highlighting their consistency, while their defensive record—just 16 goals conceded in 25 games—is the best in the division.
Atletico’s ability to avoid losses has kept them within touching distance of the leaders, and with 15 league matches still to play, they are well-positioned to capitalise should either Barcelona or Real Madrid falter. While some recent draws have slowed their momentum, their ability to remain competitive against top opposition is a crucial factor. The stalemate with Real Madrid in the recent derby showcased their defensive discipline, which will be vital in the coming weeks.
Furthermore, their attacking unit has begun to click at the right time. With players stepping up to provide crucial goals, they have maintained a strong balance between defensive solidity and offensive efficiency. Their recent 3-0 victory away at Valencia demonstrated their ability to dominate games when needed, and if they can continue this form, they stand a genuine chance of securing the title.
At 7/2, the odds provide excellent value, especially considering the potential for Barcelona or Real Madrid to drop points in what remains a highly unpredictable season. With their experience in handling pressure and a manager who has guided them to league triumphs before, Atletico Madrid are more than capable of making a late surge for the title.
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