The Spanish top flight returns this season with the familiar heavyweight names expected to dominate the conversation. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid remain the leading candidates for the crown, but the depth of quality across the division means the race for European spots is shaping up to be equally fierce. Read on to find our best bet for La Liga 2025/26 outright markets.
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La Liga outright betting tips
La Liga Race Intensifies as Clubs Battle for European Glory
- Barcelona scored 102 league goals last season, 24 more than nearest rivals.
- Athletic Bilbao remained unbeaten in 16 league matches before their loss to Atletico.
- Atletico Madrid had the lowest expected goals against (xGA) tally in La Liga last term at 33.4.
Our Best Bet
Athletic Bilbao to finish in the top four - La Liga 2025/26 | |
13/8 - odds when tipped |  |
Reasoning Athletic Bilbao’s stability and retention of key players give them an edge over rivals weakened by departures. With no heavy European schedule and a settled system, they are primed to take advantage and claim a Champions League place at appealing odds. | |
Barcelona enter as defending champions and have bolstered their attack with the addition of Marcus Rashford to complement Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha. Their attacking output last season was devastating, and Hansi Flick’s side have no intention of relinquishing their crown easily. However, questions remain over whether their defensive depth can withstand the rigours of a long campaign.
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Real Madrid, now under Xabi Alonso, have strengthened significantly in defence with the arrivals of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alvaro Carreras and Dean Huijsen. With Kylian Mbappe spearheading their frontline, Los Blancos will expect to push their Catalan rivals all the way, particularly if Vinicius Jr. rediscovers his most clinical form.
Atletico Madrid have reshaped their squad once again, adding the creativity of Alex Baena and the versatility of Julian Alvarez. Yet, despite showing flashes of brilliance last term, Diego Simeone’s men struggled for sustained consistency in the league, and they face an uphill task to close the gap at the top.
In the shadow of these giants, Athletic Bilbao continue to quietly progress. Retaining Euro 2024 star Nico Williams was a significant statement, and with a settled core, they appear well-positioned to capitalise on any slip-ups from their rivals.
Best Bet – Athletic Bilbao to finish in the top four
Here at BettingTips4You, we focus on precision rather than volume, delivering a single prediction per event. This approach ensures clarity for our readers, as we select only the strongest value bet rather than overwhelming you with multiple options. It also allows us to track our tips’ performance transparently over the season.
Rationale:
Athletic Bilbao look set to build on their strong showing last season, when they finished just outside the Champions League places. While their rivals for fourth have all suffered key departures, the Basques have kept their most influential players and enter the campaign with a squad largely intact. Villarreal, despite qualifying for Europe, were unable to keep Alex Baena, while Real Betis have lost multiple important first-teamers. Real Sociedad have also seen a major departure in Martin Zubimendi without replacing him permanently.
In contrast, Bilbao have stability on their side and an experienced coach who has already fostered significant year-on-year improvement. Without the distraction of a deep European run this time, they can channel all their resources into the league. The combination of a settled XI, minimal turnover, and continuity in their tactical structure makes them the standout pick to secure a top-four berth, priced at 13/8.t.
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