Horse Racing Tips: National Stakes preview, predictions and best bets for Curragh

The Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at 3:50 frames a gripping afternoon at the Curragh, pitching top juveniles over a stiff seven that exposes both temperament and depth of engine. The home team are well represented, with A P O’Brien assembling a trio spearheaded by Gstaad and supported by Italy and Dorset, while British yards dispatch notable unbeaten and progressive challengers who bring contrasting styles to a race rich in intrigue. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers for the National Stakes on Sunday September 14 at Curragh (15:50).

Horse Racing betting tips: National Stakes tips

Could an extra furlong turn class edge into separation up the climb?

• Gstaad’s three-start card reads 1-1-2, including a dominant Coventry win and a neck Morny second after a break
• A P O’Brien states seven furlongs is the intended move, describing the colt as quick yet staying strongly
• Market shaping lists Gstaad as clear favourite against unbeaten Saba Desert and dual G2 winner Zavateri

Best Bet for National Stakes – Curragh

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Saba Desert arrives for Charlie Appleby with two from two on the board and a profile that mirrors earlier stable stars who trod a similar pathway, whereas Eve Johnson Houghton sends the tough Zavateri, already a dual Group 2 winner whose attitude under pressure has impressed connections. Joseph Patrick O’Brien relies on North Coast, a colt trending the right way after a Tyros success at this very trip, and Dorset returns to a venue that suits after a Goodwood run that looks better in context.

Ground underfoot may nudge tactics. The commentary around Zavateri and Saba Desert hints at a slightly more exacting surface than they have faced so far, which could tilt the emphasis towards stamina late. Draws have come up neat enough to ensure the pace is honest without being chaotic, and Christophe Soumillon links with the favourite from a team operating with a strong fortnight’s return. With form lines converging—Ascot’s Coventry, Deauville’s Morny, Newmarket’s Superlative, and Irish Group 2 markers—this renewal reads like a genuine championship audition rather than a single-gear drag race.

Best Bet for Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh 3:50: Gstaad to win

Here at bettingtips4you we only provide a single prediction rather than many different ones, as we believe in quality and not quantity and only give out the best tip per event. This will also make it easier for readers that don’t have to worry about what selection to go for and also it is more accountable as we can easily evaluate our tips profitability as we only give out a clear best bet for event: Gstaad to win, Curragh 15:50.

Gstaad sets the standard on pure evidence and shapes like a colt ready to stretch his dominance to seven. His springboard came with a commanding Coventry triumph at Royal Ascot, achieved with a blend of control through halfway and a decisive change of pace when asked to lengthen. That was backed up by a narrow defeat in the Prix Morny, where he was collared by Venetian Sun only in the final strides after a break; crucially, that Deauville run read like a colt crying out for a more searching test, which he finds here.

The camp are clear about the step up: the horse is “quick but stays”, and the plan had long circled a stiffer six or an extended stretch where distribution of effort matters more than raw flash. On breeding, a Starspangledbanner colt out of a mare by Exceed And Excel hardly screams one-paced—it suggests balance between speed and carry, exactly what the Curragh’s seven demands.

The opposition bring merit but also caveats. Saba Desert remains unbeaten and echoes the Appleby blueprint of graded progress, yet his own team acknowledge today’s ground could be more testing than he has met so far. Zavateri’s will to fight is unquestioned after a short-head Vintage success, though a stiffer track with a stronger stamina emphasis may tug him outside his optimal scenario.

North Coast owns verified seven-furlong substance and keeps getting better, but must bridge a class gap against a colt with Group 1 credentials already hardened at six. Italy’s consistency at Group level is admirable, though he faces a higher bar again; Dorset has a course win on his page yet needs to flip form against a rival like Zavateri. Against that field, Gstaad’s combination of established top-end form, tactical versatility, and an expected improvement for the extra furlong creates the cleanest pathway to victory. With Soumillon in sharp rhythm of late and the yard returning nine winners in a fortnight, the surrounding signals align with the on-track evidence.

The likely race shape suits. A sensible gallop from one of the O’Brien satellites or the British pair should keep things honest without turning messy. That will let the favourite slide into a controlled rhythm before unleashing a measured move from the two, something he has already showcased at a higher cruising speed over six. If the surface rides on the easy side, the selection’s capacity to sustain rather than spike effort becomes a decisive edge. If conditions dry, he still owns the best six-furlong credentials and retains the gears to cope should this turn tactical. Either way, the favourite’s margin of safety looks greater than his rivals’.

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