Golf Betting Tips: Valero Texas Open predictions, preview and best bets

As the countdown to Augusta accelerates, the golfing world pivots to Texas for the Valero Texas Open, a key fixture on the PGA Tour calendar. Read on for our expert preview and to find the best tips and analysis and don’t miss out on the best bookmaker offers as listed below.

Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open

What Makes the Valero Texas Open So Unpredictable?

• Tommy Fleetwood ranks 4th in the field for Strokes Gained: Total (1.562), showing elite all-round form
• His approach game is razor-sharp, ranking 12th for SG: Approach (0.771), crucial on a second-shot course like TPC San Antonio
• Fleetwood averages 1.708 putts per green in regulation (16th), proving he can convert chances on slower, wind-affected greens

Our Tips

As the countdown to Augusta accelerates, the golfing world pivots to Texas for the Valero Texas Open, a key fixture on the PGA Tour calendar. Set amid the oak-laden terrain of San Antonio, this long-standing tournament serves not only as a challenging standalone event but also as a final audition for a place in the Masters field. With just one golden ticket left for Augusta, the stakes could not be higher for those outside the automatic qualification.

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, stretching over 7,400 yards, is a par 72 that is anything but straightforward. The Greg Norman-designed layout is known for its strategic demands rather than brute strength. Despite not being especially tight, the fairways are lined with trees that require both placement and accuracy from the tee. Moreover, the prevailing winds that swirl through the terrain further complicate club selection and approach play, as downhill holes tend to face into the breeze while uphill ones benefit from it.

Green complexes at this venue add an additional layer of difficulty. Although they are slightly slower, a necessity due to frequent wind gusts, they require precision in both distance control and putting. Last year’s winner, Akshay Bhatia, underlined this by leading the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation, emphasising just how vital solid iron play is in determining success here.

The field this year features several prominent names including Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and defending champion Bhatia, each looking to fine-tune their game ahead of the season’s first major. However, only one can leave with a win – and possibly a place at Augusta. With the unpredictable Texan weather, varying course setups, and a mixture of motivations from players either already booked for the Masters or still chasing entry, the Valero Texas Open promises to be a volatile yet fascinating tournament.

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Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood to Win

Tommy Fleetwood enters this week’s test with a statistical profile that aligns strongly with what’s required to conquer the Oaks Course. While he may not yet have a PGA Tour win on American soil, the conditions and demands of TPC San Antonio suit his style of play impeccably, making him the standout selection for victory.

Fleetwood’s ball-striking this season has been exceptional. Currently ranked fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Total (1.562) and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (1.224), he demonstrates a consistency across all departments that few in the field can rival. His iron play remains sharp, evidenced by his ranking of 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach (0.771), and his putting is well above average at 0.338, ranked 39th in the field. That rare blend of high-level approach play and competent putting is critical on a course where past champions have consistently excelled in both.

Additionally, Fleetwood’s putting average of 1.708 (16th overall) reveals a quiet efficiency on the greens, particularly under challenging conditions. While his driving distance may not raise eyebrows (295.0 yards, 139th), distance has not proven to be a prerequisite for success here. His driving accuracy of 62.68% (38th) offers far more value at this track, where staying out of trouble is more critical than overpowering it.

When factoring in his par-4 scoring average of 3.95 (13th), it becomes clear that Fleetwood is not just consistent – he’s thriving in the types of holes that often define tournaments. With all the focus this week on control, precision and temperament, Fleetwood ticks every box. This might just be the perfect scenario for him to finally make that long-anticipated breakthrough.

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