Golf Betting Tips: The American Express predictions, preview and best bets

The PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing starts with The American Express in La Quinta, California, marking the first mainland USA event of the season. Read on for the complete preview and tips and make sure to check out the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Golf betting tips: The American Express

Can Accuracy and Short Game Dominate This Week in California?

• Brian Harman ranks 19th in driving accuracy, which will be crucial on La Quinta’s tighter fairways.
• His putting average (1.733) and one-putt percentage (41.70%) rank among the best in the field, giving him an edge in converting scoring chances.
• Harman’s scrambling from under 10 yards sits at 94.59%, a vital skill for managing the challenging greens at the Stadium Course.

Our Tips

The PGA Tour shifts focus to the sun-soaked fairways of California this week, as the West Coast Swing gets underway with The American Express tournament. Staged across three courses in the picturesque desert setting of La Quinta, the event offers a unique multi-venue format. Players will rotate through the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club over the first three days, with a cut introduced after 54 holes—unlike the standard 36-hole cut seen in most PGA Tour events. Sunday’s final round will then culminate at the iconic Stadium Course, renowned for its strategic challenges and dramatic design.

The tournament’s reputation as a birdie fest stems from its forgiving course setups, which cater to both professionals and amateur participants. Generous fairways, slow greens, and minimal rough ensure that low scoring is the norm. Last year, Nick Dunlap shattered the record books with a stunning 29-under-par finish, becoming the first amateur to claim a PGA Tour title since 1991. As Dunlap returns to defend his crown, he will face stiff competition from an impressive field, including major winners and emerging stars. The weather is set to provide near-ideal playing conditions, with warm temperatures and only light winds forecast through the opening rounds, though gustier conditions on Sunday could inject an element of unpredictability.

With its mix of competitive drama, accessible scoring, and a star-studded line-up, The American Express promises another enthralling week of golf. Fans and punters alike will be keenly watching how players navigate the distinct challenges posed by the three contrasting courses and what strategies they employ to tame this low-scoring environment.

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Best Bet: Brian Harman to Win

Backing Brian Harman for this week’s title emerges as a compelling wager when considering his attributes and recent form. Harman’s game seems well-suited to the demands of The American Express, particularly given the setup that prioritises precision and a strong short game over sheer power.

Harman’s driving accuracy, ranked an impressive 19th on the tour, is a cornerstone of his game, and it’s a quality that will be pivotal on the tighter fairways of La Quinta Country Club. While his driving distance may not match the biggest hitters, the shorter overall length of the courses diminishes the advantage of raw power, bringing accuracy to the fore. His Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage of 65.84% underlines his ability to consistently give himself birdie opportunities, which is critical in a tournament where scoring is so low. Harman’s putting performance further reinforces his credentials; ranked 30th in putting average, he excels at converting chances, and his one-putt percentage of 41.70% highlights his proficiency on the greens.

The key statistic, however, is Harman’s scrambling, where he ranks 57th overall and shows particular aptitude from within 10 yards of the green. With the revamped Stadium Course boasting more challenging pin placements, an effective short game will be crucial in avoiding bogeys and keeping pace with the leaders. Additionally, his experience and consistency, illustrated by a scoring average of 69.93, suggest he has the temperament to thrive in a high-pressure setting like this one.

Harman’s ability to keep mistakes to a minimum, combined with his strength in key metrics such as putting and scrambling, makes him a strong contender to lift the trophy this week. The conditions and the layout play into his strengths, and with a composed and methodical approach, he has the tools to edge ahead of the field.

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