Golf Betting Tips: Mexico Open predictions, preview and best bets

The PGA Tour makes its way south to Vidanta Vallarta this week for the Mexico Open, a tournament that has gained prominence since becoming a fully sanctioned event in 2022. Read on for the complete preview and tips and make sure to check out the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Golf betting tips: Mexico Open

Who Will Seize the Opportunity at the Mexico Open? A Test of Power and Precision Awaits

• Rasmus Højgaard ranks 11th in driving distance (318.2 yards per drive), giving him a significant advantage on this long course with wide fairways.
• His birdie average of 4.30 per round highlights his ability to convert scoring opportunities, crucial at a tournament where past winners have gone as low as 24-under.
• Despite his putting struggles, his strong approach play (ranked 26th in proximity from over 200 yards) ensures he will give himself plenty of birdie chances.

Our Tips

The PGA Tour makes its way south to Vidanta Vallarta this week for the Mexico Open, a tournament that has gained prominence since becoming a fully sanctioned event in 2022. Set along Mexico’s west coast, this Greg Norman-designed course presents a 7,436-yard par-71 layout, which provides a balance of scoring opportunities and strategic challenges.

Historically, low scores have been the trend at Vidanta Vallarta, with past champions reaching winning totals between 17-under and 24-under par. The course features wide fairways and minimal rough, allowing aggressive players to take full advantage of powerful drives off the tee. However, with water hazards in play on 12 holes, strategic iron play and controlled approach shots remain essential.

Despite the length of the course, Vidanta Vallarta’s slow paspalum greens have made it a venue where strong putters can thrive, though run-off areas around the greens add an element of difficulty in scrambling. Wind conditions can play a role, but with calm weather expected, scoring should remain favourable throughout the week.

Defending champion Jake Knapp returns after his two-stroke victory in 2024, while several new challengers will look to make their mark. With many of the world’s top-ranked players skipping the event, there is an excellent opportunity for emerging talents and established professionals to compete for a significant PGA Tour title.

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Best Bet: Rasmus Højgaard to Win

Among the leading contenders, Rasmus Højgaard stands out as the best bet at 18/1, thanks to his combination of distance off the tee, birdie-making ability, and recent consistency on the PGA Tour.

A five-time winner on the DP World Tour, Højgaard has been edging closer to a breakthrough victory on American soil, and Vidanta Vallarta could provide the ideal setting for that success. His length off the tee is a key asset, ranking 11th in driving distance at 318.2 yards per drive, which should allow him to take full advantage of the course’s generous landing areas.

Beyond his power game, his birdie average of 4.30 per round places him among the stronger scorers in the field. With par 5s being reachable in two shots, his ability to capitalise on scoring holes will be crucial, particularly on a layout where past champions have gone deep under par. His strokes gained off the tee (+0.376, 40th on tour) confirms that he is one of the more effective drivers in the field, a vital trait given how driver-heavy this course plays.

The main area of concern in Højgaard’s game has been his putting, as he currently ranks 163rd in strokes gained on the greens (-0.668). However, Vidanta Vallarta’s slower paspalum putting surfaces could work to his advantage, potentially reducing the impact of his struggles with shorter putts. If he can find some consistency on the greens, his long-game advantage will make him a serious contender.

Højgaard’s aggressive approach and ability to recover from mistakes could make him a perfect fit for this course. While his scrambling stats (42.59%) suggest some struggles when missing greens, his strong approach play from over 200 yards (ranked 26th in proximity from that range) should see him hit plenty of greens in regulation, reducing the need for frequent up-and-downs.

Given his recent form, which includes a T12 at the Phoenix Open and a T14 at the Dubai Desert Classic, he has shown steady improvement. His ability to go low in favourable scoring conditions suggests that he will be well-suited to the Mexico Open, making him an excellent choice to claim his first PGA Tour title this week.

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