The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continues with one of the most prestigious stops on the calendar: the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Read on for the complete preview and tips and make sure to check out the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.
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Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Can an Underdog Challenge the Favourites at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
- Scottie Scheffler is the favourite but is on a three-event winless run, raising doubts over his dominance.
- Rory McIlroy has struggled with driving accuracy, ranking 125th this season, which could hinder his chances.
- Cameron Smith’s exceptional putting and short game make him well-suited to Bay Hill’s demanding conditions.
Our Tips
Cameron Smith to Win | |
20/1 - odds when tipped |  |
Reasoning Cameron Smith is a strong value pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, excelling in short game, putting, and tough conditions. His experience and course fit make him a serious contender. | |
This event consistently attracts the world’s best players, offering 700 FedEx Cup points to the champion. With its challenging course design and firm, fast greens, Bay Hill demands precision and patience, making it a stern test for even the most elite golfers.
A key storyline heading into this year’s tournament is the form of Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion and world number one, who has been installed as the favourite at odds of +320. His dominance in recent years at Bay Hill is well documented, but his current three-event winless streak suggests he may not be at his imperious best. Rory McIlroy, a past champion here, follows at +750, but concerns over his driving accuracy and inconsistency this season cast some doubt over his ability to challenge for the title. Meanwhile, Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele, both priced at +1600, have been in excellent form and will be hoping to add a significant victory to their CVs.
History has shown that while favourites often perform well at Bay Hill, surprises are not uncommon. Kurt Kitayama’s victory in 2023 was a testament to this, proving that an outsider can rise to the occasion on this demanding layout. With several European players enjoying a strong start to the year and the ever-present challenge of unpredictable wind conditions, this year’s tournament looks poised to deliver another compelling battle.
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Best Bet: Cameron Smith to Win
Cameron Smith emerges as the best value pick to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, offering an appealing combination of course fit, recent form, and a proven ability to handle tough conditions. The Australian’s strengths lie in his elite short game, which will be crucial given Bay Hill’s historically difficult greens and penal rough. Players who can scramble effectively and putt well on fast Bermuda surfaces tend to fare well here, and Smith’s touch around the greens makes him a prime candidate to contend.
Smith has demonstrated his ability to thrive in high-pressure situations, winning both The Open Championship and The Players Championship in recent years. His experience in windy conditions, a likely factor this week, further bolsters his credentials. In previous appearances at Bay Hill, he has shown an ability to navigate its demanding layout, and his ability to grind out scores in difficult circumstances makes him an excellent fit for this event.
While others in the field, including Scheffler and McIlroy, have stronger overall records at Bay Hill, Smith’s all-around game should not be underestimated. His putting, often his biggest weapon, is significantly better than many of his rivals, and if he finds himself in contention on Sunday, he has the temperament to close the deal. With question marks over some of the leading contenders, backing Smith to lift the trophy presents strong betting value.
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