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Top football tips for Friday: Top expert picks on Valencia, Milan, Lens and Hamburg derby. Featuring win and BTTS angles plus a Super Double. Read on to view today’s football betting tips and also take advantage of the betting offers listed below.
Let’s now dive into the top football tips of the day.
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📊 Three Key Stats Behind Today’s Picks
- Valencia have not lost a home league fixture against Getafe since April 2018.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 14 matches against Lecce.
- Hamburg’s last six home derbies against St Pauli have all seen both teams score.
Valencia vs Getafe
Steve Harrington; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:
Valencia’s campaign has yet to take off, with just a solitary point from two matches leaving them searching for momentum. A 1-1 home draw against Real Sociedad was followed by a narrow defeat to Osasuna, and manager Carlos Corberán will be eager to deliver a first league victory ahead of the international break.
Despite their slow start, Los Che have a strong historical record against Getafe at Mestalla. They have not lost at home to the visitors in La Liga since 2018, and last season secured a convincing 3-0 success in this fixture. The suspension of captain José Gayà is a setback, but the attacking quartet of Diego López, Luis Rioja, Dani Raba and Arnaut Danjuma still provides cutting edge.
Getafe arrive in excellent spirits, having opened with victories over Celta Vigo and Sevilla. Their summer signings have added spark, and Adrian Liso has quickly impressed. Still, with Valencia’s home advantage and Getafe’s defensive vulnerabilities, the smart play is backing a home win.
Best bet – Valencia to Win
Both Teams to Score | |
7/10 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Marseille’s attacking quality through Aubameyang and Weah meets Ajax’s ability to score on the road. Neither side defends well in Europe, with Marseille conceding in 21 of 22 Champions League matches and Ajax without a clean sheet since 2019. Goals at both ends seem unavoidable.
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Lecce vs AC Milan
Linus Bergström; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:
AC Milan’s new Serie A campaign began in disappointing fashion, suffering a shock defeat to newly promoted Cremonese despite dominating possession and chances. Returning boss Max Allegri will demand a reaction, and Lecce could be vulnerable opponents.
The Rossoneri boast a formidable record against Lecce, unbeaten in their last 14 meetings, with three consecutive wins. Christian Pulisic, who scored a brace in this fixture last season, remains the key attacking outlet, while Santiago Giménez is expected to add presence alongside him. Lecce themselves showed resilience with a goalless draw at Genoa last time out, but the loss of top scorer Nikola Krstovic to Atalanta has left a void in attack.
At Via del Mare, Lecce can trouble Milan’s backline through energetic pressing, but over the course of 90 minutes Milan’s superior squad depth and attacking quality should prove decisive. This is a classic bounce-back opportunity for the visitors.
Best bet – AC Milan to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Galatasaray Over 1.5 Team Goals | |
13/8 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Galatasaray are strong at home, scoring at least twice in nine of their last 11 European matches in Istanbul. Liverpool’s defence is leaky, conceding multiple goals in five of eight games this season. With Osimhen fit again, Gala’s attack can cause serious problems.
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Hamburger SV vs St Pauli
Wolfgang Shotten; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:
The Hamburg derby is always charged with intensity, and this year’s Bundesliga encounter should be no different. Hamburger SV opened with a stalemate against Borussia Mönchengladbach, while St Pauli produced a dramatic late comeback to snatch a 3-3 draw against Borussia Dortmund. Both sides are yet to claim a league win, adding extra weight to this fixture.
Hamburg’s defensive record has been patchy, with only two clean sheets in their last eight competitive games. Although they tend to raise their level at Volksparkstadion, they remain susceptible to conceding, especially against teams that attack with pace. St Pauli, meanwhile, proved in their opener that they carry goal threat, with late strikes from Sinani and Smith salvaging a result.
Given the attacking intent and defensive weaknesses on both sides, a high-scoring contest looks likely. Hamburg, however, have the edge at home and will expect to deliver in front of their fans.
Best bet – Both Teams to Score
Bayern Munich -2 Handicap | |
21/20 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Bayern are ruthless, scoring at least three in each of their last seven matches. Pafos created just 0.3 xG in their Champions League opener. With Kane in top form, Bayern should breeze to a big win with a margin of at least three.
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Lens vs Brest
Herrin Kendrick; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Rationale:
Lens bounced back from an opening-day loss against Lyon with a gritty 2-1 victory at Le Havre, showing their resilience. Pierre Sage’s side are strong at home, and the Bollaert-Delelis Stadium provides an intimidating setting. Against Brest, who have made an inconsistent start, Lens will feel confident.
The visitors drew 3-3 with Lille on the first weekend but followed that with a flat 2-0 defeat at Toulouse, where they created little of note. Eric Roy’s team have attacking weapons such as Kamory Doumbia and Ludovic Ajorque, yet they remain prone to lapses at the back, particularly on the road.
Lens, meanwhile, have the midfield quality of Adrien Thomasson and the attacking craft of Deiver Machado to expose Brest’s weaknesses. Goals should arrive at both ends, but Lens’ stronger overall balance makes them clear favourites to come out on top.
Best bet – Lens to Win & Both Teams to Score
Middlesbrough to Win | |
11/10 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Middlesbrough are unbeaten at home this season, winning five of seven overall. Stoke have lost recent games against QPR and West Brom, looking shaky at the back. With Boro in free-scoring form and Stoke struggling for points, the hosts should dominate.
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🧲 Friday Super Double
Valencia vs Getafe – Both Teams to Score
Hamburger SV vs St Pauli – Over 2.5 Goals
Rationale:
This Super Double focuses on goals. Valencia’s fragile backline means Getafe can score, even if Los Che should also find the net. Meanwhile, the Hamburg derby almost always produces fireworks, with both sides attacking freely and defences looking unconvincing. Combining these two goal-driven markets offers an attractive Friday double.
Tuesday’s Super Double | |
2/1 - odds when tipped | |
Reasoning Marseille’s strong record at the Vélodrome against Dutch sides makes them a good shout for victory, especially with Aubameyang firing. Pairing that with goals in Bristol City v Ipswich – two teams who’ve seen plenty of BTTS lately – creates an attractive daily double.
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