Football betting tips: Europa League outright predictions, preview and best bets

The revamped Europa League starts in late September, with no mid-season Champions League drop-ins. This format change favours outsiders. Read on to find our outright predictions for the tournament, which include a best bet and a dark horse pick.

Football betting tips: Europa League Predictions

Can Athletic Bilbao’s Home Advantage Propel Them to Europa League Glory?

• Athletic Bilbao are priced at 12/1 to win the Europa League, with the final set to be played at their home ground, San Mames.
• Spanish clubs have won the Europa League eight times in the last 11 seasons, underscoring the strength of La Liga teams in this competition.
• Lyon had the joint-best record in Ligue 1 from January to May last season, highlighting their potential as an outsider at 20/1.

The Europa League has entered a transformative era with the introduction of a revamped format for the 2024/25 season. This year, 36 teams have been thrown into a single league table, a significant departure from the traditional group stage format. Each side will face off in eight matches—four at home and four away—against opponents from different pots. This setup aims to create a more balanced competition, with every team getting an opportunity to prove their worth over an extended period.

As the tournament progresses, the stakes become even higher. The top eight teams will directly qualify for the Round of 16, ensuring a smoother path to the final. Those finishing in the next 16 spots will face a playoff round, a brutal test of their resilience, while the bottom 12 teams will see their European journey come to an abrupt end. This new structure, devoid of third-place teams dropping down from the Champions League, ensures that only the most consistent and competitive teams will advance.

This season’s Europa League is particularly intriguing due to the diverse range of clubs competing. From Premier League giants to Spanish stalwarts and rising French forces, the competition is set to be fierce. But as always, amidst the favourites, a few teams could surprise the pundits and fans alike.

Best Bet for Europa League Outright Winner

Given the depth and quality of the teams involved, the 2024/25 Europa League promises to be highly competitive. However, when analysing the odds and the form of the participants, Athletic Bilbao stands out as the best bet for the tournament.

Bilbao, priced at 12/1, is not just any contender; they are a team with a clear vision and purpose this season. Their motivation is twofold: the chance to add another European trophy to their cabinet and the unique opportunity to play the final at their home ground, San Mames. This is more than just a logistical advantage—it’s a psychological boost that could drive them to outperform their competition.

The Basque club has undergone a period of rejuvenation under Ernesto Valverde, who returned to the helm last season. His impact has been transformative, guiding Bilbao to a fifth-place finish in La Liga and securing the Copa del Rey. This cup success is particularly significant as it demonstrates the team’s ability to perform in knockout scenarios, which is precisely what the latter stages of the Europa League require.

Additionally, Bilbao’s squad is built for a deep run in Europe. The retention of Euro 2024 winner Nico Williams is a statement of intent. Williams, a burgeoning talent, has the potential to be a game-changer in critical moments. His pace, creativity, and ability to influence the game could be pivotal as Bilbao navigates through the challenging fixtures that lie ahead.

What also plays into Bilbao’s favour is the historical success of Spanish teams in this competition. Spain has been the dominant force in the Europa League, with 14 titles, and Spanish teams have won the competition eight times in the last 11 seasons. Bilbao’s experience in European football, coupled with their current form and the added incentive of a home final, makes them a formidable contender. Given these factors, backing Athletic Bilbao to lift the trophy at 12/1 presents a solid and well-reasoned betting opportunity.

Europa League Dark Horse

While Athletic Bilbao might be the safer bet, Lyon, priced at 20/1, presents an intriguing outsider option that could yield significant returns for those willing to take a calculated risk. The French side has had a mixed start to their domestic campaign, which has contributed to their relatively high odds. However, dismissing them based on early-season form would be a mistake.

Lyon’s fortunes could hinge on their ability to recapture the momentum they built in the latter half of last season. Under the guidance of Pierre Sage, Lyon had one of the best records in Ligue 1 from January to May, showcasing their potential when firing on all cylinders. Their journey to the French Cup final further underscores their capability to handle the pressures of knockout football.

The Europa League’s structure could also play to Lyon’s advantage. Their group stage opponents include Olympiakos, Ludogorets, and Besiktas—teams that, while competitive, offer Lyon a realistic chance to accumulate the points necessary to advance. If Lyon can build confidence in these fixtures, they could become a dangerous proposition in the knockout stages.

Moreover, Lyon’s squad possesses a blend of youth and experience that can thrive in European competitions. The unpredictability of cup football, combined with Lyon’s proven ability to string together positive results, makes them a viable dark horse. At 20/1, the odds reflect the challenges they face, but they also present an opportunity for a high-reward bet.

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