Football Bet of the Day for Monday: Kean, Retegui & Gloukh set the tone – expect action without overcommitting the banker

Football Bet of the Day for Monday: Israel vs Italy preview with expert analysis and our strongest selection. Line-ups, form and tactics covered. Rean on to view the tips and reasoning…

One of our trusted experts, known for his deep knowledge of International football, has picked this game as Today’s Best Bet, and the selection makes plenty of sense.

3 of the last 2 Best Bet of the Day WON! ⚡️✅✅✅

⚽ Football Bet of the Day

Israel vs Italy

Luca Pratesi; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You

📈 Three Key Stats Behind Today’s Best Bet

• Italy recorded 40 shots and scored five against Estonia, highlighting a decisive shift towards front-foot football.
• Israel have three wins in their last four qualifiers, including a 4-0 success away to Moldova.
• The countries have met six times competitively and Israel have scored in two of the last three head-to-heads listed in recent cycles.

Rationale:

This fixture in Debrecen pairs an Italian side rediscovering their bite with an Israel team comfortable striking in transition. The Azzurri’s 5-0 dismantling of Estonia did more than lift spirits; it showed a cleaned-up structure and a liberated front line. The switch back to a flat back four ahead of Gianluigi Donnarumma steadied the base, freeing both full-backs, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Dimarco, to push high. That width supports a front three built around Mateo Retegui’s penalty-area instincts, Moise Kean’s channel running and Mattia Zaccagni’s diagonal darts. From the bench, Giacomo Raspadori proved decisive, adding variety between the lines and late energy.

Israel, though, will not retreat into their shell. Ran Ben Shimon’s group arrive off a 4-0 success in Moldova, a result that reflected the fluency of their attacking core: Dor Peretz times his surges to perfection, Oscar Gloukh plays the final pass with imagination, and Manor Solomon drifts inside to commit markers. Tai Baribo offers penalty-box presence, while Dor Turgeman is a lively alternative if the match opens up. This blend underpins a recent sequence that has put Israel just ahead of Italy in the section, making caution an unaffordable luxury.

The tactical picture tilts towards an exchange. Italy’s full-backs will advance to provide the width Gattuso craves; that inevitably leaves lanes behind for Israel to break into, particularly down their right where Eli Dasa overlaps. Conversely, Israel’s 10s and wingers accept risk to create overloads, inviting turnovers that Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli can spring into quick transitions. With both managers prioritising momentum in a tight group—Norway likely to control top spot—this meeting has the look of a contest neither wishes to throttle. Italy should generate volume through Retegui and Kean, but Israel’s ball carriers can punish space. Taking sides is less attractive than taking goals for each camp.

Why this selection is our Monday headline pick

Form and motivation

Italy’s confidence wave from Bergamo is real, but it came against Estonia; this is sterner. Israel have banked three wins in four qualifiers and sit in a handy position, so the incentive to attack is clear. With matches running out, a draw may not satisfy either camp if Norway keep winning.

Personnel match-ups

• Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Dimarco; Barella, Manuel Locatelli, Sandro Tonali; Matteo Politano, Retegui, Zaccagni. Bench threats include Raspadori, whose movement unsettles compact blocks.
• Israel: Daniel Peretz; Dasa, Roy Revivo, Stav Lemkin, Harel Nachmias; Dor Peretz, Eliyaniv Barda… (midfield combinations will feature Dor/Eran Peretz pairing as listed); Oscar Gloukh, Manor Solomon; Baribo leading the line with Turgeman as impact.

Every name listed above comes from the match notes; the common thread is dynamism. Retegui’s near-post timing and Kean’s aggressive sprints demand respect. On the other side, Gloukh and Solomon will repeatedly target Italy’s left channel when Dimarco advances, asking Bastoni or Calafiori to defend large spaces.

Style & flow

Gattuso wants an assertive Italy: faster circulation, earlier crosses and more shots. The 40 attempts against Estonia are a signpost of intent. Israel are strongest when they invite pressure and burst forward through Solomon and Gloukh, with Dor Peretz arriving late. That naturally produces transitions and, often, trade-offs at the back.

Risk management

Backing one team to win undervalues Israel’s threat and the game state if they score first. BTTS captures both scripts: Italy dominate and concede on the break, or Israel strike early and Italy pile on. In either case, the probability of both nets bulging outweighs prices available on more binary outcomes.

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Additional angles that support BTTS

Set-piece depth

Italy possess aerial danger through Bastoni and Retegui, while Israel use well-rehearsed routines with deliveries from Solomon or Gloukh. One clean contact at either end can tilt the market in our favour.

Bench impact

If this stays level late, both managers have firepower to change the rhythm. Raspadori’s drifting, Politano’s directness and Turgeman’s fresh legs all increase shot volume in the closing stages, a period when defensive lines stretch and errors creep in.

Mental context

Italy are rebuilding under a new coach after a nerve-jangling period; occasional missteps are likely. Israel, chasing a landmark finals berth, will accept risk to maintain their cushion in second. Pressure often means a goal conceded as well as a goal scored.

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✅ Best Bet: Both Teams To Score

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