Football Bet of the Day for Friday: Stuttgart v St Pauli – a goals-first angle without overcomplicating it

Football Bet of the Day for Friday: Friday nights in Germany can be wonderfully unruly, and this one at the MHP Arena pits a shaky Stuttgart against buoyant St Pauli. Our in-house Bundesliga specialist has weighed up form, lineups and momentum to land on a single, value-led selection for the day.

One of our trusted experts, known for his deep knowledge of German football, has picked this game as Today’s Best Bet, and the selection makes plenty of sense.

5 of the last 7 Best Bet of the Day WON! ⚡️✅✅✅✅✅

⚽ Football Bet of the Day

Stuttgart vs St Pauli

Wolfgang Shotten; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You

📈 Three Key Stats Behind Today’s Best Bet

• Stuttgart conceded three goals in 12 minutes to lose at home to Freiburg last weekend.
• St Pauli took seven points from three by drawing at Dortmund and beating Hamburg and Augsburg.
• Five Stuttgart goals conceded in three league games highlight ongoing defensive teething problems.

Rationale:

The evidence from August and September points strongly towards an open contest in Swabia. Stuttgart have slipped into bad habits without ever looking toothless going forward. They lost two of their first three league games, and last weekend’s collapse against Freiburg was revealing: the hosts were comfortable for an hour, then conceded three times inside the final dozen minutes. That pattern – capable in possession yet fragile in defensive transition – has cropped up more than once. Five goals conceded in three Bundesliga fixtures, plus four allowed in the DFB-Pokal tie at Eintracht Braunschweig, underline the theme of looseness when the back line is asked to turn and defend space.

Personnel does not help their solidity. Deniz Undav remains sidelined, while Silas and Justin Diehl are still out. Those absences force Sebastian Hoeness (and his staff) to lean on the wide rotation of Jamie Leweling and Tanguy Nianzou—correction: for our purposes we stick strictly to the probables provided, so the creative burden falls on Tiago Tomás, Bilal El Khannouss and Leweling behind Ermedin Demirović—to manufacture chances through cut-backs and shots from zone 14. That quartet can create; the trade-off is what happens when attacks break down. With Waldemar Anton no longer mentioned in this match data and a centre pairing of Jeltsch and Chabot, the hosts are still knitting relationships. It looks a back line that prefers the game in front of them, not racing towards their own goal.

Across the touchline, St Pauli are riding a surge. Alexander Blessin’s team stormed back from 3-1 down to pinch a point against Borussia Dortmund on opening weekend, then won the derby away at Hamburger SV, and followed it by edging Augsburg 2-1. That run shows more than spirit; it speaks to a clear attacking identity. The Kiezkickers play with assertive width, release wing-backs early, and combine quick switches into the channels for Andreas Hountondji and Pereira Lage, with Elian Qenaj—again, we only reference the names listed: the creative work falls to Dionisi Sinani underneath the front two—finding pockets to keep moves alive. When you commit those numbers forward, you will concede phases, but you also manufacture volume. It’s why their games have been high-event without being chaotic for chaos’ sake.

Team news feeds the same conclusion. Ricky-Jade Jones and David Nemeth remain out, but Jackson Irvine returned to the bench last weekend and could add legs and timing from midfield. That extra runner helps Pauli’s second-wave presence around the box, a persistent issue for Stuttgart when initial clearances aren’t clean. On the other side, Stuttgart’s goalkeeping picture is stable with Alexander Nübel, yet the notes about Fabian Bredlow nearing a return suggest the coaching staff are still managing the position in the background – it’s not a distraction, but it hints at a unit still settling.

The tactical chess looks straightforward: Stuttgart will try to control territory through Atakan Karazor and Angelo Stiller setting the tempo, with Tomás and El Khannouss looking for half-spaces. Pauli will accept spells without the ball, then spring quickly into the spaces left behind the full-backs Josha Vagnoman and Maximilian Mittelstädt. If Stuttgart score first – highly plausible at home – Pauli’s response pattern this season has been impressive. If Pauli strike early, Stuttgart will have to open up even more, which only amplifies transition chances the other way.

From a betting perspective, we’re not trying to be clever. The numbers in the preview are modestly sized sample sets, but the type of goals being conceded is consistent: late collapses, second phases, runners not tracked, and set plays turning into pinball. Both sides have enough forward quality to profit from those mistakes. Demirović is a magnet for chances if cut-backs arrive. Hountondji is direct and in form, and Sinani can find clever shots at the top of the box. With Friday-night energy, a proactive away side and a home defence still learning on the job, the most sensible angle is simply banking on both nets to bulge.

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✅ Best Bet: Both Teams To Score (Yes)

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