Football Bet of the Day for Friday: Norway vs Italy in focus with a key goals-based pick. Backed by top expert insight.
One of our trusted experts, known for his deep knowledge of European football, has picked this game as Today’s Best Bet, and the selection makes plenty of sense.
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🇳🇴 Norway vs Italy – Friday’s Expert Betting Tip
Luca Pratesi; Sports journalist at BettingTips4You
Football analyst at BettingTips4You
Over 2.5 Goals | |
10/11 - odds when tipped |  |
Reasoning Norway are full of attacking energy, spearheaded by Haaland and Ødegaard, and have scored nine goals in two qualifiers. Italy, weakened at the back, look vulnerable—yet still possess forward talent. With both sides motivated by automatic qualification pressure, goals should flow. Over 2.5 looks an excellent value angle.
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🟢 Key Betting Stats:
- Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last five appearances for Norway.
- Italy have conceded at least twice in three of their last four matches.
- Norway have won six of their last seven competitive fixtures.
Rationale:
Friday night’s top international fixture sees an in-form Norway team, brimming with confidence and led by elite-level attackers, take on an Italy side in disarray both defensively and tactically. Our expert, Wolfgang Shotten, has singled this clash in Oslo out as the Bet of the Day, and he’s pinpointed the over 2.5 goals market as the standout option given the current trajectory of both nations.
Let’s begin with the Norwegians. Ståle Solbakken’s group sit proudly at the summit of Group I after two commanding victories to begin their World Cup qualification campaign. A 5-0 hammering of Moldova was followed by an entertaining 4-2 triumph over Israel—two matches that not only boosted morale but also showcased the potency of Norway’s front line. Martin Ødegaard has been a creative metronome, laying on four assists already, while Erling Haaland continues to produce goals with terrifying consistency, hitting 40 in just 41 appearances for his country. With Alexander Sørloth adding additional physicality and goal threat, this is a Norway side designed to score—and score often.
Italy, on the other hand, are beginning yet another campaign clouded by doubt. A succession of absentees—especially in defence—has left Luciano Spalletti scratching his head for answers. Acerbi’s refusal to join up, coupled with injuries to Calafiori, Buongiorno and Gabbia, means Italy’s back three could lack both chemistry and authority. Although Gianluigi Donnarumma brings world-class quality in goal, even he has looked human behind a makeshift defence.
This Italian side has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last four competitive matches and shipped five goals over two legs to Germany in the Nations League. At the same time, their forward players are finding form: Moise Kean had his best ever Serie A season, Raspadori is scoring again for Napoli, and Retegui is the current top scorer in Italy. Spalletti’s attacking options may be under pressure, but they’re certainly capable of contributing to a high-scoring affair.
Another key factor: both teams will see this as a must-not-lose game. With only one direct qualifying place available, neither side will want to hold back. Expect Norway to start with aggression and Italy to respond, especially if they fall behind. The stakes, the form, and the talent all point to a goal-filled encounter.
🎯 Best Bet – Over 2.5 Goals
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